Area Forecast Discussion
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479 FXUS61 KPBZ 161738 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 138 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic snow showers and cold temperature are expected into the afternoon amid upper-level low pressure. Wintry precipitation could clip northern West Virginia and the ridges Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Temperature through the mid-levels is sufficiently cold that most clouds will result in light snow as the dendritic growth zone is within the cloud instability layer. Light snow showers will continue through at least midday, but should begin to dwindle in coverage and intensity as the upward motion wanes. Surface high pressure will move from wrn Michigan across Ohio, supporting an increase in subsidence and a decrease in moisture. Any remaining snow showers will dissipate, and cloud cover will decrease from west to east. Temperature today will remain below seasonal average, as cloud cover and cold advection suppress heating except from near ZZV to MGW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A brief dry spell tonight before another system just clips the southern reaches of my forecast area. Models continue to show a trend of dissipating the northern edge of the precipitation shield as the deep moisture is carried further south. Current guidance is coming into agreement, that the most likely places for mixed precipitation would be over my southern border, while there will be enough cold air to support all snow just north of the mix. The surface low responsible for the precipitation Saturday will quickly transition to the east coast, bringing an end to precipitation during the afternoon over the far southeastern ridges. With models continuing to come to a solution on the what and where, its a bit too early to consider headlines, but this will need to be monitored in future forecast. Sunday should be a rather nice day with sunshine, but still below normal temps. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance of rain will arrive late Monday into Monday night with low pressure tracking from the central United States to West Virginia before the track begins to wobble around. Brought likely pops into locations south of Interstate 70 Monday night and Tuesday, then model uncertainty with the location of the low pressure system takes over and have stuck with chance pops through Wednesday night. Temperatures will be near normal on Monday, then drop below normal again for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MVFR stratocu confined largely to the broad band emanating from Lakes Huron and Erie impacting FKL/DUJ and (at times) LBE. Outside of this area, light snow has all but ceased, the mid- level winds have started to back towards the west and warmer/drier air is moving in, quickly eviscerating the stratocu. VFR conditions under mostly clear skies is expected this evening and into the early overnight period. Another system will encroach from the southwest early Saturday, bringing the potential for snow and sleet for southern ports of ZZV and MGW. MVFR ceilings and shower activity should remain mostly south of I-70, but cannot rule out a brief MVFR ceiling dip extending northward to PIT/AGC/HLG. IFR is not expected at this time. Gusty northwest surface flow is already beginning to dissipate as the pressure gradient slackens. This trend should continue overnight. OUTLOOK... High pressure will limit restriction potential for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure will arrive Tuesday bringing restrictions lasting through mid-week.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.