Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200946 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 546 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers should end this morning as a cold front exits, with mainly dry weather expected the rest of the day under building high pressure. Rain chances return early in the week with crossing low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Isolated to scattered showers should taper off early this morning after the passage of a cold front. Areas near MGW to ZZV and S are expected to be in close proximity to the front as it stalls this afternoon. Maintained just a slight chance of showers/tstms for that area. Otherwise, building sfc high pressure should return dry weather and partial clearing by the afternoon as temperatures remain above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure across Ontario and the Ern Great Lakes should maintain dry weather through most of tonight. Low pressure is expected to track across the Midwest late tonight through Monday, dragging the stalled sfc front back N as a warm front. Models trended slower with this scenario with a stronger sfc high to the N, so slowed the return of the shower/tstm POPs in the forecast. The sfc low is expected to track across the Upper OH Valley and Eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday, as the low`s associated cold front approaches and crosses the area. Maintained likely POPs for showers/tstms as this occurs. The potential for stronger storms will be dependent on how much destabilization and sfc heating takes place. The front should complete its passage Tuesday night with decreasing POPs. Above seasonal average temperatures are expected to continue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ridging should return dry weather to the forecast through the end of the work week as a trough slowly advances ewd from the Wrn CONUS. The trough is expected to approach the Upper OH Valley region by the weekend, with shower and tstm chances returning. Temperatures are expected to average above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A few mainly isolated showers will linger past 12Z as a cold front settles across the region. Behind the front, MVFR to IFR ceilings will linger through much of the morning. Ceilings will start to lift as high pressure tries to build in and mixing commences, with a return to VFR conditions expected by early afternoon. Dry weather will continue through the night. Conditions might be a bit more conducive to fog tonight with weaker wind and the recent rain. Have included MVFR fog at most terminals, with the expectation of better detail later. Southwest winds will shift to northwest behind the front, with speeds near or below 10 knots through the period. OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are expected into the middle of next week as the weather pattern remains active. No sustained periods of IFR are predicted, although thunderstorms on Mon/Tue could lead to such restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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