Area Forecast Discussion
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887 FXUS61 KPBZ 260533 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 133 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry weather for Thursday before rain chances return Friday with low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Persistent stratocu in NW flow across portions of the area should slowly decrease overnight as sfc high pressure builds in. Lows are expected to be around 5 degrees below average. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Short wave ridging and a brief spell of high pressure at the surface will keep the area dry Thursday. A slow moving southern stream system is projected across the Mid-Atlantic Region Thursday night. Models differ slightly on the exact track as it turns the corner and begins to phase with the broader trough. This track will play a vital role in just how far west the precipitation shield will come. Will carry a blend, but will favor the easternmost models (NAM, EC). Regardless, rain chances will increase later in the day Friday and Friday night as the broader trough axis crosses the area. This will also usher in cooler than average temperatures for the early part of the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence through the extended period as the rainy and cool end of the week gives way to a warm and dry trend. High pressure will begin to build at the surface late Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring an end to precipitation chances and establish clearing sky. Temperatures will temporarily be held in check Sunday with lingering northwest flow aloft, but this will quickly change heading into the middle of next week. A building ridge will pass to our east by Tuesday evening enhancing warming with southwest flow. Highs will soar into at least the mid and upper 70s by Wednesday. The next appreciable chance of precipitation will come by late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Stratocumulus continue to linger across the region this morning, mainly from PIT on north. MVFR to spotty IFR ceilings are resulting. The clouds will begin to break up towards morning as high pressure starts to build in. Some patchy MVFR mist is possible in the hours leading up to sunrise as well. By later in the morning, VFR conditions can be expected across the region for the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be light overall. OUTLOOK... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with the crossing of weak low pressure on Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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