Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150140 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 940 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Isolated snow showers should end in the higher terrain this evening as shortwave ridging builds in. Dry weather and partial clearing is expected elsewhere under this ridging, though minimal snow shower chances should begin to increase just before sunrise as a cold front approaches. Lows are expected to be just below average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... With the cold front moving through the region Thursday morning, another round of snow showers will develop, although overall coverage of snow showers may be even less than today. Favored northwest flow areas should pick up another couple of inches, but remain below advisory criteria. While most locations fell short of freezing today for high temperatures, highs tomorrow should range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Snow showers will linger behind the cold front Thursday night into Friday, but snow shower coverage should steadily decrease during the day, with dry weather finally expected Friday night. The break in precipitation will not last long with low pressure expected to move to the south of the region. There is quite a bit of model spread, with the 12Z NAM keeping precipitation contained to Tucker County WV while the 12Z GFS brings precipitation as far north as Interstate 80. In addition, the GFS shows a warm nose that might allow precipitation to start as freezing rain. For now, have added pops as far north as Pittsburgh, and have kept freezing rain out of the forecast due to a lack of confidence in the temperature profile. After another cold day in the 30s on Friday, most locations should rise into the 40s on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The dry period across the forecast area may last 36 hours at the end of the weekend. Another low pressure system will move from the Central Plains to the East Coast, and with a bit of agreement between the GFS and ECMWF, have expanded likely pops a bit farther north than the previous forecast for Monday night into Tuesday. Depending on the speed of the system, which the models disagree on, showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Snow showers have slackened off as warm advection and ridging take over. VFR conditions should continue overnight for the most part. Winds will become less gusty this evening, but west- northwest wind of around 10 knots will persist through the night. A cold front will approach towards morning and cross after sunrise on Thursday. Another round of snow showers is expected, although coverage and intensity may be a bit less than today. MVFR ceilings will develop at least for a time areawide, with visibility restrictions possible mainly north of I-80 and along the ridges. Winds will once again gust to between 20 and 30 knots during the afternoon out of the west. OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are likely through Friday with persistent upper troughing and cold NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.