Area Forecast Discussion
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146 FXUS61 KPBZ 221146 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 746 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Dry weather is expected through the day under shortwave ridging. Mid/high clouds should continue to cross the area early this morning on the wrn periphery of a coastal low. Scattered stratocu is expected to develop this morning as mixing commences though this is expected to gradually decrease later in the day as dry air mixes down. Temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal levels. Undercut guidance with snow on the ground.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave is progged to drop SE across the Ern Great Lakes tonight and Friday with mainly an increase in cloud cover expected. A lack of significant moisture should preclude precip for most of the area, though model soundings do show enough low level moisture for areas N of PIT to see some isolated snow showers. A surface ridge is progged to build across the Great Lakes region Saturday as low pressure tracks out of the Midwest to the TN Valley region. Areas N of I 70 in close proximity to the surface ridge are expected to stay dry. Areas near and S of I 70 are expected to be on the northern edges of precip associated with the crossing low. Maintained mainly chance POPs for snow, possibly mixed with rain in some areas. Locations in Tucker county have the best potential to see some light snow accumulation. The low is progged to exit the E Coast Saturday night with any snow chances ending. Temperatures are expected to continue 10 to 15 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry weather is expected as a ridge is progged to build across much of the Ern CONUS through early next week, as a trough deepens across the Wrn CONUS. Rain chances should return by mid week as the ridge slides E, and the trough advances E and approaches the area. Below average temperatures should gradually warm to near or above seasonal levels by mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Stratocumulus expected to develop with northwesterly flow as mixing commences this morning. High end MVFR is possible but based off latest hi-res model soundings opted for cigs AOA 3kft with the latest TAFs. Sfc gusts near 20kt can be expected until decoupling starts toward evening. OUTLOOK... MVFR restrictions are possible Friday with another crossing disturbance.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.