Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201118 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 718 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather into early next week, along with a warming trend towards seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Minor tweaks made to sky grids to show reflect the zero clouds observed on satellite data. Otherwise, the dry forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion... A large high pressure center will drift into the Great Lakes today. Skies will be mostly clear today thanks to a dry column. Cirrus will begin to arrive late tonight, spilling over a mid- level ridge over the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will moderate somewhat from yesterday`s values, but will remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Decently thick mid and upper level clouds will develop Saturday/Saturday night as the flattening ridge moves across, especially across the southern counties. However, the lack of lift and low level moisture will preclude precipitation. Sunday will feature a bit more sunshine as the clouds get shunted to the south somewhat by the passage of a shortwave trough axis aloft. Another ridge builds in Sunday night. Temperatures will continue their moderating trend, finally reaching seasonal levels by Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The models are in loose agreement that a 500 mb low will curve from the lower Mississippi Valley early Monday into the central Ohio Valley by late Tuesday. This will lead to an increase in rain chances from south to north during this period. The details thereafter remain murky as there is still disagreement in if/how a northern stream disturbance interacts and/or phases with the original southern stream low. In any event, conditions into Thursday look to remain fairly unsettled, with continued shower chances. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable overall. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Building high pressure should maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period. NW winds should also diminish this eve with a decreasing pressure gradient. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with Tue low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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