Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS61 KPBZ 151716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
116 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the
rest of the week under upper level low pressure.


With the noon update, only tweak made was to pull heavy snow
wording from afternoon zones as the bulk of the snow squall has
moved east of the forecast area. Previous discussion follows.

Drier air will once again take hold. This will limit snow
showers through much of the morning and early afternoon, south
of the PA Turnpike. North of the Turnpike, snow showers will
remain fairly common as there is a little better moisture
availability below 850mb.

Tonight, another shot of cold advection will generate snow
showers nearly areawide. As these showers expand southward,
light accumulation and brief reduction in visibility is
possible. No significant accumulation is expected outside of
the ridges and north of I-80 where a couple inches looks
possible through Friday until snow showers diminish with
building high pressure. Areas with accumulation should remain
under advisory criteria on average...but localized areas >3"
will be possible at higher elevations favoring northwest flow.
Well below normal temperatures will continue through Friday.


Dry conditions will be in place by Friday night before a
relatively quick moving wave returns precipitation to the
forecast area on Saturday. Guidance appears to show slightly
better consensus on track...with areas south of Pittsburgh most
likely to see precipitation. A brief period of light freezing
rain at onset remains a possibility Saturday morning so have
included a mention in the HWO...but based off deterministic
runs, ensembles, analogs and considering the short
this time it looks like it would be a trace at best. Most
locations should rise into the 40s on Saturday.


Minimal change was needed in the extended with reasonable
continuity in model guidance. The next disturbance looks to
begin to impact the region later on Monday...with continued
unsettled conditions and below normal temperatures through
Thursday as longwave trough deepens again over the northeast.


VFR conditions will largely continue through the afternoon south
of an MVFR cloud deck impacting FKL/DUJ. Light snow showers are
expected to blossom again tonight as the next wave arrives
bringing cold air through the mid-levels and fueling another
expansive cloud deck. Ceilings will likely remain in the low
VFR or high MVFR range through the night, but any stronger snow
shower will result in visibility reduction.

Strong and gusty surface flow this evening will eventually taper
down to 10kts or less in the overnight period.

Periodic restrictions are likely through Friday with persistent
upper troughing and cold NW flow.




$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.