Area Forecast Discussion
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756 FXUS61 KPBZ 232247 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 647 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The forecast calls for a cold but dry weekend. The chance for rain returns to the forecast Monday night and Tuesday and continues through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Building high pressure at the surface will maintain dry weather in the cool northwest flow regime. Stratocu streaming downwind of the Great Lakes will be stubborn tonight, not fully dissipating after sunset normally seen in these set-ups. The reason for this is re-inforcment of cool low- to mid-level air over the relatively warm Lake Erie surface. Still, enough dissipation should occur to allow for a downward trend in the overall sky cover forecast. Resultant cloud cover will play a role overnight lows, which are generally expected to be some 10 degrees below averages. The well advertised low pressure system passing south of the region continues to trend even farther south. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF all show precipitation remaining south of the region, with only the SREF showing precipitation in Tucker County. Therefore, have removed all pops in collaboration with neighboring offices. Despite a little bit less cloud cover, temperatures will only rise an additional one or two degrees compared to today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to build across the eastern Great Lakes along with an upper level ridge. This should allow dry conditions to persist. While Sunday`s high temperatures will be similar to Saturday`s values, highs on Monday should be 5 to 10 degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A slow moving cold front will be the major player in the extended forecast. While the GFS and ECMWF differ in the timing on how long the front will take to move through the region, both are coming into better agreement that the front will come through mid week, with another wave of low pressure developing along the front and moving northeast by the end of the week. Added likely pops to the forecast by Wednesday with decent model agreement during that time period, but did not have enough confidence to add likely pops at any other time, although this will be needed at some point. Highs should be more seasonable during the work week, with highs in the 50s most of the time. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are largely expected through the period. Gusty winds around 15kts will diminish this evening. OUTLOOK... Some restrictions, mainly to ceilings, are possible south of PIT on Saturday as a system passes to our south. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.