-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
228
FXUS61 KPHI 162209
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
609 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will remain offshore of the Middle Atlantic
coast through Friday, before drifting out to sea. High pressure
tries to build down into the area from the northeast over the weekend.
Another area of low pressure moves across the central Appalachians
and offshore of the North Carolina coast later Sunday into Sunday
night. Weak high pressure may finally build across the area early
next week, before a cold front arrives later Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 6:00PM...Some light rain and drizzle continues over areas
of the region as occluding low pressure remains centered
offshore. Added some light drizzle to the forecast for the next
few hours. Forecast remains largely on track; no major changes
have been made at this time.

As we go into tonight, both the surface low and its associated
upper level circulation will drift farther out to sea allowing
for some weak ridging to start to build in. While this could
initially result in some clearing by later this evening, it`s
likely that this would be short lived as low stratus and even
some fog likely redevelops overnight. Any drizzle/light rain,
however should be coming to an end through this evening. Expect
lows tonight once again mainly in the 50s.

Friday is still shaping up to be a dry day across the area in
between systems as weak surface ridging continues to build in.
However winds will remain onshore out of the east and this will
tend to keep the low stratus in place. And while there may be
some breaks or partial clearing briefly around midday or early
afternoon, even if it occurs it would be short lived as clouds
increase again by late day ahead of the next system. It should
be a little warmer than today with most areas seeing low 70s for
highs. Near the coast and over the southern Poconos it will be
cooler though with temperatures in the 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Not the greatest of weather weekends upcoming, but Sunday could
end up being not too bad. A slow moving low and front approach
from the Tenn./Ohio valley areas Saturday but then it drifts
back south/east Sunday. The northern parts of the region will
probably do the best with (only) a chance for showers Sat and
perhaps dry all of Sunday. Delmarva and south NJ will likely
have showers Sat, but will trend drier Sunday with perhaps
sunshine late Sunday. Either way, Saturday will have cloudy
skies most areas and Sunday will be cloudy south and partly (or
mostly) sunny north/west. High temperatures will be cool Saturday
(60s) but will climb back into the 70s by Sunday except for Delmarva
and south NJ where highs mostly 60s will be found. The warmest mercury
readings both Sat and Sunday will be across the North areas where
more sunshine is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After the poor weather over the weekend, next week is shaping up to
feature some drier conditions with more seasonable temperatures. The
upper low across the Carolinas Sunday night and Monday slowly spins
offshore while upper ridging takes place across the Middle Atlantic.
Fair weather Mon thru Wed with high temperatures mostly in the
mid/upper 70s with low 70s for the far NW areas and close to the
shore. Lows mostly in the 50s with some mid/upper 40s for the Pine
Barrens and southern Poconos.

The next opportunity for showers will arrive Wed night/Thu as an
upper short wave and surface cold front advance across the Great
Lakes and then into our region. The upper flow will become more
progressive by then, so the systems will not sit and spin like they
are this week. We`ll carry chance pops for Wed night/Thu at this
stage. Temperatures will go a little above normal with more upper
70s across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

This afternoon....It will continue to generally hover near low
end VFR vs. high end MVFR through this afternoon with the lowest
cigs at sites farthest east (ACY, MIV, TTN) and higher cigs
farther west at places like ILG and RDG. In fact ACY will likely
be near or at IFR cig thresholds. Winds generally northeast 10
to 15 with some gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Moderate confidence on
the overall pattern, but low confidence on exactly which flight
category the ceilings will be in.

Tonight...Early this evening, expect similar conditions as to
today...maybe even some brief improvement if clouds break up
for a time. However low stratus and/or mist/fog expected again
overnight with widespread low end MVFR to even IFR cigs (IFR
likely at MIV and ACY) and also the potential for some reduced
visibilities. If more clearing occurs this evening, this could
make fog (IFR visbys) more of a concern but right now it`s
still looking like more of a low stratus night. For this
reason forecast confidence for tonight is relatively low. Winds
northeast tonight 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...MVFR/IFR to start the day (IFR at MIV and ACY) with
some improvement heading into the afternoon to high end MVFR or
low VFR. Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming more easterly in
the afternoon and then eventually more ESE by late day.


Outlook...

Fri night/Sat ... Cloudy with showers at times. VFR, except MVFR
 possible with showers.

Sunday... VFR probable. MVFR early for KACY/KMIV/KILG.

Mon/Tue... Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
For the Atlantic coastal waters, expect Small Craft Advisory
conditions to continue through Friday, mainly due to seas. It
should stay sub SCA on the Delaware Bay through this time.

Outlook...
Conditions will remain below SCA this weekend and into next week.
Having said that, a few SCA gusts are possible Sunday morning but
confidence in it is low and any effects should be spotty and limited.
Showers are expected Sat/Sat night. On Sunday, early showers will
diminish from north to south. Fair weather is expected Monday and
into Tuesday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/RCM
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/OHara/Wunderlin
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/OHara/Wunderlin