916
FXUS65 KPIH 122335
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
535 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures Continue To Warm Into the 90s

- Isolated Dry Storms Sunday and Monday Up North

- Flirting With Critical Fire Weather Conditions Sunday through
Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Dry pattern continues under the influence of high pressure into
early Sunday. A weak feature is expected to shift across the region
Sunday afternoon. High-res models still picking up on a threat for
isolated mainly dry thunderstorms across portions of the Central
Mountains toward the Divide Sunday afternoon and evening. Model
blends continue to wash this feature out, so maintained forecast
from overnight shift. QPF still looks dry so main threat will remain
gusty outflows. Breezy winds also still expected across the Eastern
Magic Valley Sunday afternoon, which may have some potential Fire
Weather concerns. Otherwise, temperatures continue to warm into
Sunday, with daytime highs into the lower to mid 90s for almost all
lower elevation areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Another shortwave approaches the region Monday. Temperatures remain
in the lower to mid 90s, but winds begin to creep up slightly in
response to the shortwave, once again leading to potential Fire
Weather concerns. Once again we see the potential for isolated dry
thunderstorms from the Central Mountains north to along the Divide.
Stronger shortwave feature drops through Montana on Tuesday, for
increased thunderstorm threats across East Idaho, mainly the
northeast half of the forecast area. QPF amounts remain
questionable, especially with afternoon humidities remaining quite
low, but may see a few wetter storms getting into the mix.
Temperatures remain elevated, though the northeast half may see some
cooling with increased cloud cover from the afternoon build ups.
Some lingering showers/storms will be possible Wednesday as system
departs. Temperatures cool slightly, but not significantly, and the
cooling is short-lived as a shallow ridge of high pressure builds in
for the remainder of the week across the Intermountain West. The
ensemble means favor a shallow trough off the coast, in line with
both GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs. East Idaho returns to dry
high pressure, with temperatures warming back into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Expect VFR conditions through the period. A very weak wave in
northwest flow aloft will bring slightly increased winds (gusts
up to 20kts) this afternoon.  Also, expect SCT to BKN high-
level clouds for IDA, DIJ, and PIH this afternoon. Winds back
off this evening and become slightly increased (gusts up to
15kts) tomorrow afternoon. Look for mostly clear skies by
tonight and will continue through tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Gradual warming continues through Mon and drying through Sun, before
an upper level low sinks southward into Montana, then turns eastward
and becomes an open wave by Mon/Tue. This low will trigger a risk of
thunderstorms over the ID-MT border region for Sun and Mon
afternoons/evenings. By Tue, the thunderstorm coverage spreads
southward, including nearly all of the Salmon-Challis NF, a solid
portion of the Idaho Falls District, and a solid portions of
the Caribou-Targhee NF. Highest probability is in the north.
Storms should be mainly dry with precipitable water estimates
staying below 0.75 of an inch.

The increasing risk of thunderstorms indicates the overall gradual
increasing instability over the three day period. Mixing heights
increase strongly from Sun to Mon. Wind does not significantly
increase until Mon for the Twin Falls District, then the Salmon-
Challis NF and Idaho Falls District can be added to that breezy to
windy conditions on Tue. The approach of the low appears right now
to increase humidity enough to limit areas of humidity drying to
below 15 percent, so this will have to be monitored for potential
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...Messick