Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 180834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
234 AM MDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...Dry southwesterly flow aloft will provide fair weather
for today, but a short wave trough is making landfall and will
slowly make its way into the Great Basin late tonight and tomorrow.
Showers with isolated thunderstorms will kick off in the Central
Mountains tomorrow afternoon, but little precip accumulation is
expected. The trough will also kick up some winds across southeast
Idaho. Pressure gradient will still be fairly strong on Thursday,
possibly producing wind gusts to 30 mph across the Snake Plain. GFS
have the weather pattern changing next week with an upper trough
digging into the Intermountain West Sunday night into Monday. New
ECMWF run is less amplified and thus more progressive with the upper
trough moving through next week. Plenty of uncertainty to take us
into the final week of September. Hinsberger


.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue through tonight. Winds remain
below 15kts at all sites. DMH


.FIRE WEATHER...Conditions remain stable and clear today. The
strongest winds today appear to be in the eastern portions of Zone
413 this afternoon, and may gust 20-25 mph just below critical
levels. Wednesday still very favorable for shortwave to eject across
the region. Best chance for precip at this time appears to remain in
northern portions of East Idaho. Winds likely to gust near or above
critical levels, but humidities a question as the moisture deepens
across the region. Drier northwest flow arrives for Thursday, and
humidities drop behind the system while remaining gusty particularly
at higher elevations. Dry generally zonal flow in place through the
weekend, with next potential shortwave trough driving across the
region Monday. Timing still looks consistent between models, but
some differences in how amplified the system is. Either way,
Monday appears to be the next potential day for critical or near-
critical conditions for either thunderstorms or winds. DMH



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