000
FXUS65 KPIH 221951
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
151 PM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Early afternoon satellite
imagery was showing a relatively dry looking upper trough advancing
through the NW states. Numerical models continue to insist that
convectively enhanced showers will develop over the central
mountains around mid-afternoon and sweep east through the forecast
area tonight and Monday morning ahead of the upper trough. Lingering
showers are anticipated Monday afternoon and evening on the back
side of the exiting low where an area of broad surface convergence
shifts southwestward down the Snake River Plain. By Tuesday, dry and
warmer conditions return to the area as a ridge of high pressure
builds into the region. Below normal temps are anticipated with the
upper trough passage Monday followed by a strong warming trend
Tuesday and Wednesday. Huston

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Sunday. Expect dry
conditions under an upper ridge Thursday. As the ridge moves east
expect the threat for showers and thunderstorms to increase mainly
Friday night through next weekend. Very mild temperatures expected
Thursday through Saturday with the potential for a cool down Sunday
although low confidence in cold frontal timing that far out. For now
only went with small cool down. GK
&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation still expected to develop over southeast
Idaho today. Kept in showers at all sites as well as the potential
for MVFR ceilings at all sites. Started at 00Z in SUN and 06 to 08Z
at PIH, IDA and DIJ and 03Z at BYI. Expect cold enough for possible
precipitation mix at DIJ. Should improve to VFR Monday morning other
than DIJ where low clouds will persist with shower redevelopment
after 18z possible as convergence drops south. GK
&&

.HYDROLOGY...The warmer temperatures have begun to extend into the
mid-level reaches with enhanced snowmelt producing bankful flow on
the Blackfoot River above the Blackfoot Reservoir Sunday morning
where a flood advisory has been issued through Monday. Strongly
warmer temperatures over the latter half of the week will help to
bring off some of the snow pack in the higher elevations with river
rises anticipated heading into next weekend. Huston
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Advisory for Blackfoot River above Blackfoot Reservoir until
noon Monday.
&&

$$