018
FXUS65 KPIH 021737
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms every day through Saturday with July
  4th likely the most widespread coverage as an upper level wave
  pushes east.

- Cooler temperatures beginning Thursday with highs only in the
  70s and 80s Thursday through Saturday.

- Overall dry conditions are expected to return by Sunday and
  continue into next week with an overall warming trend as well.
  Temperatures will return to the 90s for lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

High pressure has slightly weakened with the high pressure
ridge axis just east of our area, and our area in weak
southwest flow aloft. Models still show residual moisture across
our area. Expect afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms
in valleys and afternoon widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains, mainly across the northern
Central mountains and the Island Park mountains. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has the northern Central mountains in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with the rest of our area
in just a general risk of thunderstorms. Our area remains quite
dry at the surface. Any showers and thunderstorms will have
gusty winds (generally around 35 to 50 mph). Temperatures this
afternoon will be in the 80s and low 90s across the area.

Tomorrow, Thursday, our area is in southwest flow aloft ahead
of a trough that will come through our area on Friday (see long-
term discussion for more on this trough). Expect a slight
increase in moisture and instability on Thursday. Expect a
slight chance to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday afternoon. Again, gusty winds will be the biggest
threat from thunderstorms, gusts up to around 50 mph. Brief
moderate rainfall is also expected on Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures drop Thursday afternoon to the 70s and 80s across
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

An upper level trough will lift through Idaho on Friday, bringing
another round of very active weather to Southeast Idaho for the
holiday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday
afternoon for the entirety of the area with GEFS and EPS indicating
precipitable water (PWAT) values ranging 0.70 to 0.90 inch across
much of Southeast Idaho. The current QPF forecast for July 4th
ranges 0.10" to 0.20" across much of the CWA, with localized higher
totals in the mid- to high elevations. Conditions will trend much
drier beginning Saturday, although a shortwave will keep continued
chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms across the
northern extent of the CWA. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will
run much cooler as compared to earlier week, with daytime highs
topping out in the 70s to low 80s in our valleys and 50s and 60s in
the mid-elevations and mountains. Upper-level flow will turn zonal
on Monday with high pressure building in beginning Tuesday. This
will keep conditions dry throughout the remainder of the extended
period, with temperatures continuously warming back into the 80s and
90s across much of the region by middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA should begin to initiate
18z-21z today. Caveat to coverage and placement is widespread
cloud cover helping to squash instability across East Idaho.
Given low confidence levels for any particular terminal, opted
to maintain VCSH or VCTS with continued VFR cigs. Best agreement
on development is for DIJ this afternoon, where we added PROB30
TS. Storms today will again be capable of 30-45kt outflows.
Convection diminishes after sunset, though a few showers may be
able to linger overnight. There is higher confidence in
thunderstorm development after 18Z Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

This afternoon will not be as warm as yesterday but still in the
80s and low 90s across the area. There remains enough residual
moisture for isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Gusty winds with thunderstorms
will range around 35 to 50 mph. A repeat is forecast through the
remainder of the week, albeit slightly cooler and slightly more
humid with a slight increase in thunderstorm coverage each day.
Friday looks to the coolest and most humid with scattered
thunderstorms across all districts. Again, today thunderstorms
are expected to be dry, though one or two may be able to produce
a wetting rain. By Friday, most thunderstorms should be able to
produce a wetting rain. The bulk of the moisture shifts east
for the weekend, allowing for a warming trend to return to East
Idaho. Humidities should return toward more seasonable levels,
but isolated thunderstorms may continue across higher terrain
zones through Sunday. |

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...TW