Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 232155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
255 PM MST Tue Oct 23 2018

.UPDATE...Updated Fire Weather Discussion.


Another weather disturbance moving through the region today will
bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the eastern portion of
Phoenix and scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
with a few being severe east of Phoenix. Drier conditions will
then move into the region starting Wednesday with temperatures
remaining near normal before a warming trend into the weekend.



A shortwave embedded in the westerly flow is currently moving
through our area. This has triggered showers and thunderstorms in
the higher terrain east of Phoenix and is expected to continue
through the early evening. A look at the SPC mesoanalysis reveals
a 1500 J/kg axis of MLCAPE extending from Tucson into eastern
Maricopa County this afternoon. The western edge of this axis is
very sharp, with values falling to near 0 J/kg near Yuma and La
Paz Counties. In addition to the CAPE over the eastern portions
of our CWA, the effective bulk shear is around 25 to 30 kts which
will be conducive for organized convection and possibly severe
storms producing large hail and strong winds. It is not entirely
out of the question to see splitting supercells this afternoon,
much like what was observed on Sunday. Given the strong south-
southwesterly steering flow aloft (around 20 kts), expecting
storms to be rather fast moving limiting our flash flooding
threat. However, as with any day with thunderstorms in our area,
we cannot completely rule out flash flooding, especially for
training cells.

The shortwave will exit our area this evening with most storm
activity ending around 03Z and nearly all activity around 05Z.
Drier westerly flow is forecast behind this shortwave effectively
shutting off all precipitation chances late tonight. Surface dew
points will gradually drop through tomorrow with clear skies and
highs near seasonal normals for Wednesday. Additionally, little
synoptic forcing will give way to very light winds that will
follow the typical diurnal patterns.

West to northwesterly flow aloft will continue into Friday before
more pronounced ridging builds in for the weekend. All in all,
this will bring a gradual warming trend through Sunday with
continued clear skies and light winds. Temperatures will be
nearing the 90 degree mark for Sunday in south-central Arizona,
with widespread low 90s in SE California.

All global models and ensembles are in excellent agreement of
ridging this weekend with details becoming more convoluted as we
move into next week. In general, the ridge does appear to shift
off to our east and be replaced by troughing of some sort early
next week. At this point, it is unclear whether or not this will
bring any precipitation to our area but a downward trend in
temperatures after Sunday does look to be a safe bet.


South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Mostly moderate to occasionally gusty easterly component winds can
be expected for most of the afternoon and early evening with gusts
from 15kt up to 28kt.  The stronger gusts will be associated with
isolated to occasionally scattered afternoon and early evening
showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms are forecast to
end or exit the area by 02-03Z this evening. Expect partly to
occasionally mostly cloudy  skies this afternoon with SCT-BKN low
clouds from 6-8kft. For later tonight and tomorrow morning expect
light easterly winds and partly cloudy skies with FEW-SCT low and
high clouds from 6-8kft and 20-25kft.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

With no aviation concerns during the period expect light northerly
winds to prevail through the region. This evening the light winds at
KIPL will turn to the west.  Then by the early morning hours the
winds at KBLH should become light and variable as BKN high cloud
CIGS move into the area at 25kft.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.


Friday through Tuesday:

Continued dry and a bit warmer conditions amidst reduced humidities
will prevail during the period with high pressure returning to the
area by late in the week. Expect near to above normal high
temperatures to rise a bit more above normal by Friday. The
warmest western area deserts could reach the low to mid 90s by
Friday. Min RH values less than 20 percent are expected through
the western half of the region with higher RH in the eastern half.
By monday min RH values should improve to mostly above 20 percent
in all locales as the next weather system approaches from the
west. Mostly light winds during the period will become a bit
breezy and mostly westerly on Tuesday afternoon with the next
system. Overnight recovery will be fair to good in SE CA and good
to excellent elsewhere.


Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.




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