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000
FXUS65 KPSR 091128
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
428 AM MST Fri Jun 9 2023

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and tranquil weather, with below normal temperatures are slated
to continue for the next several days. Another low-pressure system
is expected to move through the region beginning on Sunday resulting
in the return of breezy to windy conditions for our CWA. A warming
trend will help usher in the return of near normal temperatures by
late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper-level low that has brought us "cooler" and dry conditions
continues to weaken over the Great Basin. Global ensembles show this
system weakening further over the next day, which should allow
heights aloft to increase slightly, which in turn will help
temperatures rebound slightly over the next few days. However, a
continuation in the troughing pattern will keep our temperatures
below normal for this time of year. Highs for today across much of
the lower deserts are anticipated to be in the middle to upper 90s.
Phoenix may see a brief return to the triple digits on Saturday with
current NBM probabilities of reaching 100 degrees listed at 30-40%.
Given these cooler and dry conditions, overnight lows will be quite
pleasant for the next several nights. Lows in Phoenix area are
listed in the mid 60s to lower 70s, while out in Yuma and El Centro,
mid to upper 60s are anticipated.

Model clusters are in good agreement of another upper-level low
starting to move through California by Saturday night. As this
pushes eastward towards our CWA, heights aloft will be on the
decrease, resulting in a reinforcement of cooler than normal
conditons. Highs across the lower deserts of Arizona on Monday are
shown in the lower to middle 90s, which would be around 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year. High temperatures may fail to
reach the 90 degree mark out in the lower deserts of California,
which would be close to a 15 degree departure from normal for
early/mid June. Regional pressure gradients will increase ahead of
the advancing low, which will likely result in breezy to windy
conditions starting Saturday evening for portions of southeast
California, especially parts of Imperial County where 35-40 mph
gusts are possible Saturday and Sunday. The remainder of our CWA
will see these conditions by Sunday, with the NBM 50th percentile
depicting max gusts of 25-30 mph for the Phoenix area, and higher
gusts in the higher terrain of south-central Arizona. A quick
shower or two is possible for the Joshua Tree NP area on Sunday,
with PoPs currently sitting at 15-25%. Good agreement among model
clusters shows this system weakening and eventually exiting out of
our region by next Wednesday.

Global ensembles continue to show signs of a ridge building over
central Mexico and the Southern Plains, which will help raise
heights aloft over parts of the southwest CONUS. These higher
heights will likely result in a warming trend and more seasonal
temperatures across our CWA, which for the middle of June is the mid
100s.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1130Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Winds today will follow a similar evolution to those of yesterday,
with morning E-SE winds gradually veering through the day. A 3-4
hour period of southerly winds is (70%) likely before the westerly
flow becomes established during the afternoon. Occasional gusts up
to 20 kt are also anticipated Friday afternoon, particularly at
KPHX. Diurnal drainage winds will develop during the overnight
hours.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
At KIPL, W winds will dissipate in the early morning hours, with
wind directions somewhat more uncertain Friday, however they will
likely retain a S component and remain below 10 kt until more SW
winds develop during the evening hours. At KBLH, light and
variable winds will become breezy S-SW by the afternoon with peak
gusts likely reaching 20-25 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with below normal temperatures will prevail for the
next several days. Winds will favor typical diurnal tendencies, with
occasional afternoon gustiness upwards of 20 mph. Winds are expected
to increase this weekend ahead of another low pressure system, which
could lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Conditions will be
dry for the foreseeable future, with MinRH values mainly between
5-15% through the start of next week, and minimal to modest
overnight recovery.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Updated 255 PM MST 6/6/2023

GILA: Releases from Painted Rock Dam continue to remain above 1,000
cfs, leading to extended downstream impacts along the Gila River.
Impacts include continued inundation of unbridged river crossings,
with many of these remaining closed. Therefore, the Flood Warnings
along the Gila River between Painted Rock Dam and the Colorado River
have been extended through June 13th.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lojero/RW
AVIATION...Young/Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...RW
HYDROLOGY...Smith