Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 250001
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
501 PM MST Tue May 24 2022

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure located just northeast of the
region will keep temperatures near normal today with mostly clear
skies. A warming trend is then expected through the end of the week
as high pressure spreads over the area, with the warmest day during
the stretch expected for Thursday and Friday. A slight cooldown
is expected during the holiday weekend with dry conditions
persisting.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest objective analysis depicts a potent upper-level trough
located just northeast of the region. This feature will continue to
suppress the heights aloft today, with high temperatures across the
lower deserts topping out in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.
It will also be a bit breezy this afternoon once again with wind
gusts possibly exceeding 20 mph at times, especially across the
higher terrain east of Phoenix.

As the aforementioned trough moves farther east during the next
couple of days, a ridge of high pressure will build over the region
through the end of the work week. This will allow for heights aloft
to rise and thus temperatures to warm to above normal levels.
Wednesday`s highs will range between 100-103 degrees to then
increase to between 103-106 degrees for Thursday and Friday. This
will result in a moderate heat risk across most of the area,
therefore, the necessary heat precautions should be taken.

As we head into the weekend into early next week, a slight cooldown
in temperatures is likely as yet another trough amplifies across
the western CONUS. NBM forecast highs over the weekend lose about
a degree or two a day, likely bottoming out at around 100 degrees
(right around normal) on Memorial day. In addition, with the
incoming trough, an increase in breezy conditions is likely.
Unfortunately, no precipitation to speak of during the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 00Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Winds will continue from the W with gusts of 18-23 kts before
subsiding after 5-7Z. Winds make a late switch back to the east
after midnight with speeds mostly remaining below 8 kts. Some
guidance hint at the potential for low level winds to climb
upwards of 25-30 kts later tonight, but not expecting this to meet
LLWS criteria for the TAF. Lighter winds on Wed, AOB 8 kts, with
a typical early afternoon switch to the W-NW. Clear to mostly
clear skies with a few passing high clouds will continue into Wed
morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds at KIPL will favor the SE to S through the period, while
winds at KBLH favor a southerly component. Speeds are expected to
mostly stay below 10 kts through the next 24 hours with directions
becoming variable at times. By early to mid Wed afternoon winds
will pick up with gusts into the teens, from the SE at KIPL and
from the S-SW at KBLH. Clear to mostly clear skies with a few
passing high clouds will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure building over the area will result in above normal
temperatures during the next several days with highs above 100
degrees across the lower deserts. Afternoon MinRHs will range
between 5-12%, while overnight MaxRHs will recover to between
20-35% across most areas. Relatively light winds can be expected
Wednesday through Friday, however, some periodic afternoon gusts
into the teens are likely. Another weather disturbance moving
across the western states over the weekend into early next week
could result in more widespread breeziness, enhancing the fire
weather potential.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Lojero/Kuhlman
AVIATION...Sawtelle/Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Kuhlman


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