Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 191150
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
450 AM MST Sat Oct 19 2019

.UPDATE...Updated forecast discussion.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and generally sunny conditions will persist across
the region through next week. Temperatures will remain near
seasonal normal values through the weekend before a slight
warming trend early next week. Expect occasional afternoon
breezes, especially across southeast California and western
Arizona Sunday, but otherwise, weather conditions will remain
agreeable.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures early Saturday morning are running about 5 degrees
cooler than yesterday at this time with hardly any clouds in the
sky. Satellite water vapor imagery shows a broad upper level
trough centered over the continental US with dry west-northwesterly
flow over our region. This pattern will remain in place through
the weekend, with a few minor shortwaves passing by, keeping
temperatures near seasonal normal values. The shortwave Sunday
will enhance the pressure gradient across the western portion of
the forecast area leading to breezy afternoon conditions along the
Colorado River and southeast California.

Early next week the flow will amplify as the trough to our east
deepens. A Pacific ridge will expand across the Southwest bringing
modest H5 height rises that will translate into a slight warmup
into the low 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Looking towards the end of next week, long range GFS and ECMWF
model ensembles generally show troughing across the Southwest
which will dampen atmospheric heights to near climatological
norms. This system, as with the last several we have seen, will
not bring any precipitation chances but will lead to breezy
conditions Friday with wind gusts approaching 20-30 mph.
Temperatures will also return to the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1150Z

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Dry west to northwest flow aloft through will keep skies generally
clear through the next 24 hours with only a few cirrus at times
as a weak disturbance passes through. Surface winds will be very
light at all terminals, around 6 knots or less, and favor typical
diurnal patterns.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday:
Dry conditions will remain in place for the week. Minimum RH
values will drop into the 7-15% range most afternoons with
overnight recovery into the 20-35% range most nights with the
higher recovery values in the elevated forested areas of the
Tonto NF. Winds will remain fairly light for most of the week with
occasional afternoon gusts in the 10-15 mph range. However, a dry
weather system Friday will lead to stronger winds with gusts into
the 20-30 mph range across the entire area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Deems
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Deems


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