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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 032307
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
705 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the western Atlantic will drift southward tonight
and early Saturday, but finally push east and well offshore
the middle Atlantic coast Saturday afternoon and night. The low
pressure offshore combined with high pressure centered near the
Great Lakes will result in the dry and cool NW flow across
the middle Atlantic states through Saturday. High pressure will
bring warmer conditions Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Friday...

...Increased Fire Danger through around sunset tonight...

We will continue the Special Weather Statement through 800 PM for
increased fire danger.

The fuel moisture levels, while drying out in the fine fuels,
remained only marginally dry to moist within the 10 and 100
hour fuel sticks. This is due to the due to recent wetting rains,
wet winter season, and much earlier than normal green-up.  This is
helping keep the fire danger, while slightly elevated from
normal with the breezy and dry conditions, lower than it would
otherwise be. Temperatures are rather mild, not warm to hot -
another minimizing affect.

For the rest of the afternoon, expect the NW winds at 10-15 mph
with gusts to 20-25 mph, minimum relative humidities 15-22 percent
(lowest in the Triad), and highs in the lower 70s. Only a few
cirrus/cirrocumulus from time to time as moisture aloft is lacking.

Gustiness will subside this evening, with light and variable winds
overnight. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight. Lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s with rapid dropoff as the winds die off.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Friday...

1020 MB surface high pressure is expected to build south from
WVA/western VA Saturday as heights rise aloft. The coastal system
will finally get pushed east and well out into the Atlantic. It
appears that most model solutions favor cloudiness associated with
the circulation around the low pressure to remain confined to the
NE Coastal Plain region of NC Saturday, before clearing out later in
the afternoon. Some of the cloudiness may reach back to the west and
south into the Triangle for a period early Saturday afternoon.
Otherwise, skies will become clear Saturday night as high
pressure takes over. Highs Saturday will be coolest in the NE (mid
60s) where the low level NE flow will be felt. To the south and
west, highs will rebound into the lower 70s in the western Piedmont.
Lows Saturday night are expected to be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM Friday...

Narrow ridging extending across the TN and OH Valley early Sunday
morning collapses Sunday morning as weak disturbances in the
northern and southern stream push east. A weak associated cold front
will shift east and move into the southern Appalachians Sunday
afternoon and then drift into western NC and southern VA by Monday
morning. Weak forcing with the front, a very limited amount of
instability and high cloud bases should preclude the need for any
PoPs for Sunday through early Monday. Highs on Sunday will range
around 70 with prefrontal lows in the lower 50s.

As surface high pressure shifts off the Southeast coast on Monday,
increasing southerly flow will result in a warming trend and an
increase in moisture. As upper level disturbances ride over a ridge
across the Gulf of Mexico, a small chance of showers and perhaps an
daytime thunderstorm is possible on Monday and Tuesday with perhaps
the best chance late Tuesday into Wednesday.

A backdoor cold front will try to drop south into the mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday and move across the Carolinas on Wednesday night with a
cooler air mass moving into central NC late Wednesday. The front
will lift north as a warm front on Thursday before another cold
front moves into the area from the northwest on Thursday night and
Friday and then stalls across SC. The evolution of these surface
features will have a big impact on the sensible weather and with so
many features in proximity to the area, considerable uncertainty
remains. -Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 705 PM Friday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Gusts will come to an end with sunset, and winds
will slowly veer during the overnight and daytime hours - however
winds won`t be strong enough to warrant additional lines in the TAF.
Did add a second line (and wind direction change) to show the
scattered mid level clouds that will make their way into RWI off the
Atlantic Ocean Saturday afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather are expected through Sunday.
Only slight chances for showers will increase early next week,
along with potentially minimal sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Green/Badgett