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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 241541
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1141 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak low pressure will linger over southern and eastern NC today.
The low pressure and associated weak front will push to the coast
tonight. High pressure to the north will build into our region
through Wednesday. Finally, a slow moving upper level low pressure
system will approach from the west late in the week, bringing a
round of wet weather centered on Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 AM Tuesday...

...Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather (damaging wind
gusts and isolated tornadoes) continues (east of US-1 mainly for the
Coastal Plain region today...

Very slow cold frontal passage is underway as of 14Z and is evident
on radar by a narrow band of reflectivity stretching from Roxboro to
Wadesboro. Northerly winds behind the front along with dewpoints in
the lower 60s also confirms FROPA is underway and these areas should
be on the outside looking in for convective potential today.
Meanwhile to the east in the warm sector ahead of the front,
dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with a developing cu
field becoming apparent per vis satellite. A few isolated showers
have developed ahead of the front but nothing of significance.

The front will continue to slowly march eastward today and as long
as cloud cover continues to thin out ahead of the front, convection
looks likely by early afternoon. Just how far the front makes it
before initiation is still up for debate but it would seem (based on
14Z surface obs and incoming 12Z model data) that areas east of US-
1, and more specifically areas along and east of I-95 stand the best
chance of seeing showers and storms later today. Similar hazards as
yesterday with gusty winds, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes
possible. The front should exit the forecast area by late
afternoon/early evening, effectively ending the threat of severe
weather. Inherited forecast looks very reasonable at this point and
I won`t make significant changes.

Temperatures will be all over the place today. Sites in the NW
Piedmont will only top out in the mid to upper 60s, however the
Coastal Plain will likely take a run at the mid 80s before all is
said and done this afternoon. Lows tonight should be much more
uniform with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1141 AM Tuesday...

CAD regime will be in place to start the day Wednesday with cool
northeasterly winds at all sites, not to mention widespread stratus.
The lingering cold front that has been the focus for showers and
storms the past few days should clear (most of) the area by
Wednesday morning, although some guidance keeps it right along the
NC/SC border through the day. Regardless of that fact, northeast
winds and cloud cover will keep temperatures well below normal with
highs in the low 60s to the north. Across the Sandhills/southern
Coastal Plain the presence of the nearby front may allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s very late in the day as the
front start retreating northward but even these values would be
below normal for late May. The day should be mostly dry outside of
some light rain or drizzle in the northeast. However by Wednesday
night we should see the beginnings of WAA aloft with a few isolated
showers moving into the Western Piedmont after midnight.
Temperatures Wednesday night should bottom out in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Another wet system is expected to arrive late Thursday (west) and
Thursday night and Friday elsewhere. The combination of strong high
pressure off in the Atlantic and the approach of a strong mid/upper
low from the mid-Mississippi Valley Thu-Fri will bring a deep SE-S
flow of moisture from deep in the SW Atlantic. PW`s are forecast to
increase again to 1.75+ inches likely resulting in locally heavy
rainfall again centered on Friday for much of the area. Showers may
linger into Saturday depending on the track and speed of the
mid/upper low. A return to fair weather is expected late in the
weekend with near normal temperatures, but we will have to watch the
western Atlantic for another possible shower chance by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1141 AM Tuesday...

Cold front slowly making its way through the area. Conditions behind
the front are dominated by IFR/LIFR ceilings and this will continue
to slowly overspread the area this afternoon and evening. INT/GSO
already IFR and will be for the duration of the TAF period. RDU will
be the next site to drop behind the front around 18Z, with RWI/FAY
to follow shortly thereafter. A few isolated showers and storms are
possible at RWI/FAY just prior to FROPA, higher chances at RWI vs
FAY. Any showers will be short lived followed by an immediate drop
to IFR ceilings. Some minor improvements in cigs are possible late
in the TAF period Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook: Improving conditions late Wednesday through mid day
Thursday, but a cold frontal passage Thursday night into Friday will
bring the potential for widespread sub-VFR conditions within areas
of moderate to locally heavy rain. An overall trend toward VFR
should materialize this weekend as high pressure builds into the
area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Leins