Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 050147 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 947 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will drift across and offshore the Carolinas through Monday, during which time a front will develop east and across the southern Appalachians.
-- End Changed Discussion --
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 945 PM Sunday... An upper-level trough over the Southeast will deamplify while moving east and offshore tonight, while another will move from the lwr OH Valley swd and across the srn middle Atlantic. The movement of those features will cause sswly upper-level flow observed over the Carolinas this evening to veer to wly and eventually nnwly through early Mon; and as a consequence, the shield of cirrostratus now over the ern Carolinas will get shunted ewd and sewd through the night. At the surface, 1015 mb high pressure centered over VA will drift south and across the Carolinas. Dry air related to the ridge will continue to advect around it and from the middle Atlantic coast swd and through the ern Carolinas, while low-level moisture will otherwise linger over the wrn half of NC, including the wrn Piedmont. As a result of the above, stratocumulus will linger over the wrn NC Piedmont and favor mostly cloudy conditions there, with clear(ing) skies elsewhere, as the aforementioned cirrostratus moves away from cntl NC. Low temperatures will consequently display a range of low 50s with clearing skies over the Coastal Plain, to around 60 F or so where stratocumulus lingers over the wrn Piedmont .
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Sunday... A low-amplitude, sheared shortwave trough diving south on the back- side of the large-scale upper trough in place across the Eastern US will descend across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions during the afternoon and into the Carolinas Monday evening. Related synoptic scale lift/forcing, including a period of rather decent upper jet divergence will lead to the development of isolated to scattered convection during the afternoon and into the evening, mainly along a weak surface lee-side trough in place across the eastern slopes of the so. Appalachians. The far NW Piedmont counties will once again(similar to Saturday/yesterday)be the INVOF of the instability maximum and while that is only forecast to be around 750- 1000 J/KG, deep layer shear between 30-40kts will be sufficient to support a few strong to severe storms. Wind and hail will be the primary threat. Severe threat will be diurnally driven, with convective intensity waning quickly around sunset. There will however be a chance for isolated to widely scattered showers to spread southeastward across remainder of the forecast area through through the early overnight hours( 06-09z)until the sheared disturbance passes south of the area. Skies will vary from partly cloudy in the west to mostly sunny in the east. Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower 80s south. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with some mid 50s expected in the cooler, outlying rural areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM Sunday... Tue: An upper trough over the NE US and Canadian Maritimes will bring WNW flow aloft over central NC. A few ripples of energy in the flow combined with a southward moving front/lee trough will warrant the chance of some afternoon showers and storms. However, the effective boundary, along with deeper moisture/instability appears shunted mainly across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. Depending on what convection, if any, develops Mon with a lee trough, will impact where this boundary sets up for Tue. Effective shear, though, combined with mid-level dry air/high DCAPE seen in forecast soundings could favor a hail/wind threat. The best chance of showers/storms should be mainly south/east of the Triangle. Under an airmass that continues to modify from Mon, highs should be in the mid to upper 80s. Wed-Sun: The pattern during this period will continue to favor a trough over the NE US that will slowly sag to the south into the Mid- Atlantic and Carolinas by the end of the week/upcoming weekend. A trend to more zonal flow looks to take place late Sat/Sun, but with a potential system approaching from the west/northwest late Sun or next week Mon. Models and their ensembles appear to be coming into somewhat better agreement on timing and placement of shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough in the NW flow aloft. Chances of showers and perhaps a storm will be possible Wed and Thu as a stalled frontal boundary combined with mid-level forcing slowly sags along and south of the area. Models show the front passing through sometime Thu, with weak high pressure settling in across the Mid- Atlantic Fri/Sat. After highs Wed in the 80s, a return to below normal temps in the 70s and low 80s will take shape for week`s end. This surface high, moves offshore come Sun, with a return flow and highs closer to normal for June in the mid/upper 80s. There could be a chance of showers returning late Sun/Mon but model spread still varies such that only slight chances are warranted thus far. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 745 PM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: MVFR cigs have held at KINT and KGSO, and will likely remain in place through around midnight. There is uncertainty whether the MVFR cigs will scatter out after midnight or hold through daybreak. There is also a chance for a period of IFR cigs at KINT and possibly KGSO. A shower is also possible at KINT and KGSO between 02Z and 06Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions should generally prevail, however there could be a period of some MVFR cigs at KRDU and KFAY overnight. KRWI should remain VFR through the period. Showers and storms could develop late Mon eve over the western Piedmont and Foothills. -KC Outlook: Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible late Monday afternoon/evening, mainly INVOF of KINT and KGSO. Some lingering showers and storms are possible Tuesday, mainly across southern NC, INVOF FAY as a cold front moves into the area. Thereafter, expect predominately VFR conditions. -CBL && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...KC/CBL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.