Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241541 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1141 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak low pressure will linger over southern and eastern NC today. The low pressure and associated weak front will push to the coast tonight. High pressure to the north will build into our region through Wednesday. Finally, a slow moving upper level low pressure system will approach from the west late in the week, bringing a round of wet weather centered on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 AM Tuesday... ...Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather (damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes) continues (east of US-1 mainly for the Coastal Plain region today... Very slow cold frontal passage is underway as of 14Z and is evident on radar by a narrow band of reflectivity stretching from Roxboro to Wadesboro. Northerly winds behind the front along with dewpoints in the lower 60s also confirms FROPA is underway and these areas should be on the outside looking in for convective potential today. Meanwhile to the east in the warm sector ahead of the front, dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with a developing cu field becoming apparent per vis satellite. A few isolated showers have developed ahead of the front but nothing of significance. The front will continue to slowly march eastward today and as long as cloud cover continues to thin out ahead of the front, convection looks likely by early afternoon. Just how far the front makes it before initiation is still up for debate but it would seem (based on 14Z surface obs and incoming 12Z model data) that areas east of US- 1, and more specifically areas along and east of I-95 stand the best chance of seeing showers and storms later today. Similar hazards as yesterday with gusty winds, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes possible. The front should exit the forecast area by late afternoon/early evening, effectively ending the threat of severe weather. Inherited forecast looks very reasonable at this point and I won`t make significant changes. Temperatures will be all over the place today. Sites in the NW Piedmont will only top out in the mid to upper 60s, however the Coastal Plain will likely take a run at the mid 80s before all is said and done this afternoon. Lows tonight should be much more uniform with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1141 AM Tuesday... CAD regime will be in place to start the day Wednesday with cool northeasterly winds at all sites, not to mention widespread stratus. The lingering cold front that has been the focus for showers and storms the past few days should clear (most of) the area by Wednesday morning, although some guidance keeps it right along the NC/SC border through the day. Regardless of that fact, northeast winds and cloud cover will keep temperatures well below normal with highs in the low 60s to the north. Across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain the presence of the nearby front may allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s very late in the day as the front start retreating northward but even these values would be below normal for late May. The day should be mostly dry outside of some light rain or drizzle in the northeast. However by Wednesday night we should see the beginnings of WAA aloft with a few isolated showers moving into the Western Piedmont after midnight. Temperatures Wednesday night should bottom out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Another wet system is expected to arrive late Thursday (west) and Thursday night and Friday elsewhere. The combination of strong high pressure off in the Atlantic and the approach of a strong mid/upper low from the mid-Mississippi Valley Thu-Fri will bring a deep SE-S flow of moisture from deep in the SW Atlantic. PW`s are forecast to increase again to 1.75+ inches likely resulting in locally heavy rainfall again centered on Friday for much of the area. Showers may linger into Saturday depending on the track and speed of the mid/upper low. A return to fair weather is expected late in the weekend with near normal temperatures, but we will have to watch the western Atlantic for another possible shower chance by Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1141 AM Tuesday... Cold front slowly making its way through the area. Conditions behind the front are dominated by IFR/LIFR ceilings and this will continue to slowly overspread the area this afternoon and evening. INT/GSO already IFR and will be for the duration of the TAF period. RDU will be the next site to drop behind the front around 18Z, with RWI/FAY to follow shortly thereafter. A few isolated showers and storms are possible at RWI/FAY just prior to FROPA, higher chances at RWI vs FAY. Any showers will be short lived followed by an immediate drop to IFR ceilings. Some minor improvements in cigs are possible late in the TAF period Wednesday afternoon. Outlook: Improving conditions late Wednesday through mid day Thursday, but a cold frontal passage Thursday night into Friday will bring the potential for widespread sub-VFR conditions within areas of moderate to locally heavy rain. An overall trend toward VFR should materialize this weekend as high pressure builds into the area.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Leins SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Leins

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