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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 180911
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
408 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic through the weekend.
A cold front will approach the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...

A weak upper short wave currently moving across the Carolinas attm
is providing a fair amount of high clouds over the eastern half of
the state. This wave, and these clouds, will exit to our east
shortly, with clear skies in it`s wake.  Given current dwpt
depressions, we should see fog expand in coverage until sunrise.

Otherwise, high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will shift
east/offshore today, with the ridge axis lingering across the state.
As such, look for light low level flow most of today, gradually
becoming more southerly late.  We noted a substantial difference
between the NAM and the GFS wrt how long morning stratus lingers.
The NAM keeps stratus locked in through early afternoon, with temps
struggling through the low 50s.  The GFS forecast soundings on the
other hand mix out the low clouds, but move in the next batch of
upstream high clouds fairly quickly. Either way, looks like a fair
amount of cloudiness today, so will keep temps persistent with
yesterdays readings.  Highs around 60.

For tonight, most of the guidance show an inverted trough developing
off the Carolina coast, with moisture spreading northward.  The
ECMWF is the most aggressive and farthest west with said moisture,
and even suggests some light rain may be possible east of I-95
overnight and Monday morning.  Will continue slt chance PoPs east of
US-1 tonight, per current grids.  Lows 40-45, warmest east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...

Central NC will be located between a coastal trough to our east, and
a cold front approaching from the west.  Fair weather with highs in
the low-mid 60s expected during the daytime Monday.

Monday night, the aforementioned cold front to our west will cross
the mountains and move into the western Piedmont before sunrise. A
band of light pre-frontal showers will begin moving across central
NC after 06Z Tuesday, thus will carry slight chance PoPs during that
time.  Lows in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

A generally dry cold front is expected to move across central on
Tuesday morning (very small chance of showers), with the main push
of cold air expected to hold off until Tuesday night. This should
yield high temps ranging from the upper 50s/near 60 north/northwest
to the mid 60 south/southeast. Low temps Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning are expected to be in the 30s.

Surface high pressure will build into/extend into the area from the
west Wednesday into Thursday morning, before a reinforcing dry
backdoor cold front sinks south/southwestward through the area on
Thursday, with strong surface high pressure (1038+ mb) building into
the area behind the front. This will usher in a much colder airmass,
with high and low temps Thursday through Friday closer to normal
highs and lows in January, with highs struggling to reach 50 across
the Piedmont on Friday with some lows in the 20s possible on Friday
morning. Meanwhile, s/w ridging will move across the area on Friday,
yielding a continuation of dry conditions.

A s/w disturbance will approach the area from the west on Friday
evening/night, then moving across the area on Saturday/Saturday
night. This should yield a good chance of precip on Saturday, with
some sort of CAD possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...

Through 06Z Monday...MVFR fog is occurring attm mainly east of I-95.
Given low dwpt depressions farther west, once the high clouds clear
out, we may see some MVFR fog develop west of I-95 as well, and
current vsbys east of I-95 further lower to IFR or LIRF.  There is
the possibility that the fog and low clouds may linger for several
hours after sunrise, otherwise, VFR conditions should return as the
morning progresses. VFR conditions are then expected through the
afternoon and evening, before MVFR conditions or lower return late
tonight mainly east of I-95.

After 06z Mon...sub-VFR conditions are possible at INT/GSO 09z-13z,
and at FAY after 13z, as low level moisture increases. FAY may also
see a few sprinkles Mon morning. MVFR conditions are possible
areawide late Mon night into Tue morning as an upper disturbance and
weak surface low pass through the area. VFR conditions should then
return for late Tue through Thu under high pressure.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...np