Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241025 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 625 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the Deep South and Southeast will persist through the weekend into early next week. This will promote a period of above normal temperatures and limited precipitation chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM Friday... Latest surface analysis shows a weak surface trough extending across the Piedmont of VA into NC with a cold front extending across the Mid Atlantic into the OH Valley. Other than a few patches of cirrus clouds, skies are mainly clear with a light southerly surface flow. The surface trough will strengthen and drop south this morning and the surface flow across central NC will become west to northwesterly ahead of the cold front that drops into central NC this evening. The westerly flow ahead of the front is not a pattern that supports convection and will keep PoPs limited in the slight chance range and confined to just the northwestern Piedmont where a disturbance aloft may initiate some isolated convection across the mountains of WV and VA the could drop into the northwest tier. A signal for this is noted in several of the higher resolution CAMs. Highs today will range in the lower to middle 90s, which may challenge record highs today which include RDU 95/1944, GSO 93/1915, and FAY 99/1938. Lows tonight will range in the mid 60s across the northeast to the upper 60s across the southwest, -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Friday... Upper level heights rise slightly across central NC on Saturday. A weak back door cold front pushes southwest across central NC on Saturday morning and then stalls near the SC border before washing out on Saturday night. Low level thickness values drop 15 to 20m across the northern Coastal Plain from Friday into Saturday morning with a negligible air mass change near the SC border. Despite the presence of the front moving across the area in the warm season, little convection is expected as the air mass is only weakly unstable and a notable capping inversion is present between 800-700 hPa just atop the surface based mixed layer. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few thunderstorms develop from differential heating in the mountains and slip southeast into the western Piedmont during the afternoon and evening but coverage and intensity should be limited. Even with the arrival of a cooler airmass, statistical guidance has actually trended upward a degree or two from yesterday. Expect highs to range in the 87 to 94 range. Lows will range from 66 to 72 degrees. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Friday... Predominantly hot and dry weather is expected through the extended forecast period. Temperatures will be well above normal for the end of May with highs in the 90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Normals highs are 80-86 and normal lows are 60-64. The overnight lows will not provide much of a relief from the persistent heat. Thankfully, the min RH values will be fairly low, helping to keep heat indices near the air temperature. The center of the high aloft will remain anchored over the northern Gulf Coast as the sub-tropical ridge extends into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Largely expect the sub-tropical ridge and high aloft to remain over the aforementioned regions through Tue night/Wed. A few weak "ridge rider" waves may move over the area, possibly resulting in some isolated showers. However, the probability of showers occurring is low at this time. A surface cold front will extend southwestward into the region from the parent low over New England, moving through the area Sun/Sun night. This front could provide enough forcing for showers to develop. Models indicate daily development of the Piedmont trough over the Carolinas and Virginia Tue and Wed. There are indications the upper level ridge may break a bit Wed night/Thu as the upper trough digs southward into the Mid- Atlantic. The associated surface front will push into the area Thu/Thu night, resulting the the best chances for showers across central NC. Temps may also decrease some in the wake of the front late in the week. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 625 AM Friday... VFR conditions are expected to dominate across central NC through the 24 hour TAF period as a ridge of high pressure aloft controls the weather across the Southeast. A surface trough shifting across the region will result in a west to northwest low level flow later today before a mainly dry cold front moves into central NC from the northeast this evening. A few isolated pockets of fog have developed this morning which could produce a brief period of MVFR visibilities this morning. While an isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and evening, the coverage will be very limited and not mentioned in the TAF. Light south to southwest winds this morning will become west to northwest toward midday with some gusts of 15 to possible 18kts and then northerly this evening. Some periods of high cirrus clouds are expected through the period with areas of cumulus clouds with bases around 5kft this afternoon. Outlook: A ridge of high pressure aloft continue across the Deep South and Southeast into early next week resulting in generally fair weather with limited thunderstorm coverage. -Blaes && .CLIMATE... Here are the record high temperatures and the year they were set for the period May 24th-29th: DATE RDU GSO FAY MAY 24TH 95/1944 93/1915 99/1938 MAY 25TH 93/2011 96/1926 98/2011 MAY 26TH 94/1953 95/1926 98/1926 MAY 27TH 96/1916 100/1911 100/1953 MAY 28TH 99/1941 98/1916 102/1941 MAY 29TH 98/1941 99/1914 102/1941 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...Blaes LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Blaes CLIMATE...RAH

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