Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 231251 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 850 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will shift southeast offshore today. A dry cold front will approach from the NW late tonight, then shift across the region Wednesday. High pressure to our north will follow the front Wednesday night and Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 850 AM Tuesday... High pressure is currently centered along the NC/SC border close to the coastline. As the high moves offshore today, southwest flow will develop, allowing high to rise a bit closer to normal compared to yesterday, although temperatures will still be a bit below normal with highs around 70 degrees. Some high clouds will increase overnight in advance of an approaching cold front. Between the increasing cloud cover and southwest winds continuing overnight, lows will be significantly warmer than last night, with values ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 232 AM Tuesday... The dry cold front will move across the area on Wednesday. It will actually be warmer on Wednesday with a pre-dominantly westerly flow becoming northwest. The CAA will be delayed until Wednesday night. A period of cloudy skies will likely accompany the front during the morning into the early afternoon. A sprinkle can not be ruled out although no QFP is currently advertised. Otherwise, the skies are expected to become partly sunny Wednesday afternoon. Highs should range in the 70s. It will be cooler Wednesday night with the flow becoming more NE. Models and soundings suggest partly to mostly cloudy periods on Wednesday night. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 AM Tuesday... Extended period of dry weather through early next week with temperatures soaring into the 80s by Mon. Central NC will largely remain under NW flow aloft through the weekend from the departing broad troughing shifting offshore Thurs morning to the building subtropical ridging over the eastern CONUS. A surface cold front is forecast to have pushed through central NC by Thurs morning as Canadian high pressure shifts from the Great Lakes region to just off the Northeast coast and extending down through the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through Fri. This will favor below normal temperatures and dry conditions through late week. Surface flow shifts out of the south/southeast by Sat as the surface high becomes suppressed south to just off the Carolina coast by Sun evening. This will mark the pattern shift as low-level moisture and thicknesses steadily begin to rise and an inverted trough pushes on shore Sat afternoon. NWP guidance hints at the potential for light rain showers to accompany the passage of the inverted trough, mainly over southern Coastal Plain, Sandhills and into SC where higher theta-e airmass will reach first. Although confidence is low on if this feature will be enough to produce measurable precipitation. The subtropical ridge and 850 anticyclone may begin to shift over the Atlantic on Mon and may signal a change for upstream precipitation to leak across the mountains into early next week. High temperatures have a high likelihood of reaching >= 80 degrees (80-95% chances) by Mon with low/mid 80s in the current forecast. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 630 AM Tuesday... 24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Outlook: Largely VFR conditions are expected through Sat. There are two possible exceptions. First would be a small chance for a brief period of light showers/sprinkles and/or borderline VFR/MVFR cigs as a weak cold front moves into/through the area on Wednesday. The other would be a possible brief period of borderline VFR/MVFR cigs Thu morn/early aft. However, confidence in both occurrences of restrictions remains low at this time. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Swiggett AVIATION...pwb

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