Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 180911 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 408 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic through the weekend. A cold front will approach the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 335 AM Sunday... A weak upper short wave currently moving across the Carolinas attm is providing a fair amount of high clouds over the eastern half of the state. This wave, and these clouds, will exit to our east shortly, with clear skies in it`s wake. Given current dwpt depressions, we should see fog expand in coverage until sunrise. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will shift east/offshore today, with the ridge axis lingering across the state. As such, look for light low level flow most of today, gradually becoming more southerly late. We noted a substantial difference between the NAM and the GFS wrt how long morning stratus lingers. The NAM keeps stratus locked in through early afternoon, with temps struggling through the low 50s. The GFS forecast soundings on the other hand mix out the low clouds, but move in the next batch of upstream high clouds fairly quickly. Either way, looks like a fair amount of cloudiness today, so will keep temps persistent with yesterdays readings. Highs around 60. For tonight, most of the guidance show an inverted trough developing off the Carolina coast, with moisture spreading northward. The ECMWF is the most aggressive and farthest west with said moisture, and even suggests some light rain may be possible east of I-95 overnight and Monday morning. Will continue slt chance PoPs east of US-1 tonight, per current grids. Lows 40-45, warmest east. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Sunday... Central NC will be located between a coastal trough to our east, and a cold front approaching from the west. Fair weather with highs in the low-mid 60s expected during the daytime Monday. Monday night, the aforementioned cold front to our west will cross the mountains and move into the western Piedmont before sunrise. A band of light pre-frontal showers will begin moving across central NC after 06Z Tuesday, thus will carry slight chance PoPs during that time. Lows in the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM Sunday... A generally dry cold front is expected to move across central on Tuesday morning (very small chance of showers), with the main push of cold air expected to hold off until Tuesday night. This should yield high temps ranging from the upper 50s/near 60 north/northwest to the mid 60 south/southeast. Low temps Tuesday night/Wednesday morning are expected to be in the 30s. Surface high pressure will build into/extend into the area from the west Wednesday into Thursday morning, before a reinforcing dry backdoor cold front sinks south/southwestward through the area on Thursday, with strong surface high pressure (1038+ mb) building into the area behind the front. This will usher in a much colder airmass, with high and low temps Thursday through Friday closer to normal highs and lows in January, with highs struggling to reach 50 across the Piedmont on Friday with some lows in the 20s possible on Friday morning. Meanwhile, s/w ridging will move across the area on Friday, yielding a continuation of dry conditions. A s/w disturbance will approach the area from the west on Friday evening/night, then moving across the area on Saturday/Saturday night. This should yield a good chance of precip on Saturday, with some sort of CAD possible. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 AM Sunday... Through 06Z Monday...MVFR fog is occurring attm mainly east of I-95. Given low dwpt depressions farther west, once the high clouds clear out, we may see some MVFR fog develop west of I-95 as well, and current vsbys east of I-95 further lower to IFR or LIRF. There is the possibility that the fog and low clouds may linger for several hours after sunrise, otherwise, VFR conditions should return as the morning progresses. VFR conditions are then expected through the afternoon and evening, before MVFR conditions or lower return late tonight mainly east of I-95. After 06z Mon...sub-VFR conditions are possible at INT/GSO 09z-13z, and at FAY after 13z, as low level moisture increases. FAY may also see a few sprinkles Mon morning. MVFR conditions are possible areawide late Mon night into Tue morning as an upper disturbance and weak surface low pass through the area. VFR conditions should then return for late Tue through Thu under high pressure. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...np

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