-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
535
FXUS62 KRAH 222320
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
719 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front will move across NC this afternoon and
evening. It will be followed by cooler high pressure that will build
from central Canada to the southern Middle Atlantic into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

...Windy and Dry Today...

Several upper level disturbances embedded within the broad cyclonic
flow aloft that`s associated with a dual low pressure system
centered over the Great Lakes and Northeast US will rotate across
the area through early Friday. At the surface, a reinforcing cold
front, currently approaching the western Piedmont, will move east
through the area this afternoon.

The feature weather headline today will be the windy conditions. As
daytime heating commences, deep vertical mixing(7-8k ft) will bring
down some of the day 35 to 45 kts found at the toped mixed layer to
produce frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected, occasionally
gusting to 35 mph at times. An enhancement of orographic cirrus has
abated with these high level cloud cover expected to scatter out
over the next few hours.  Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to
lower lower/mid 80s south.

In terms of rain chances, mostly dry conditions should prevail.
The deep westerly flow in place will limit moisture and instability
across the area( PWATs only around 50% of normal. As a result, weak
lift from the passage of the front and intermittent shortwave energy
swinging through the area will yield a little more than a few
clouds/virga or a passing sprinkle/isolated shower, especially
across southern NC late Thursday night/early Friday morning in
response to increasing upper jet divergence.

Gusts should subside this evening and tonight. However, we`ll keep a
slight stirring of the winds owing to the CAA. Lows tonight in the
lower to mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in the typically
colder locations over the northern Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

* Cooler and dry day on Friday.

After the exit of the frontal system today, cool high pressure will
build in to the west on Friday. This will allow for deep
northwesterly winds to bring cool and dry air into the region.
Temperatures should be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs are
expected in the 70s, with low 70s in the north to upper 70s in the
south. Lows will dip into the mid/upper 40s in the north to the mid
50s in the south.

&&.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM Thursday...

Sat/Sat night: Dry weather is likely to hold, as we remain in a fast
NW steering flow, with the surface frontal zone holding to our S,
from OK across SC, while high pressure extends into NC from the NW.
We may see some late-day and evening cloudiness, esp across the S,
as the remnant clouds from upstream S-Plains convection tracks SE
with the thermal wind across SC and S NC, but we should remain dry
given the lack of opportunity for low level return flow. Thicknesses
are projected to stay below normal, so expect highs in the 70s to
near 80, followed by lows mostly in the 50s.

Sun/Sun night: Shower/storm chances will increase by late Sun, as
the northern stream low over Maine on Sat drifts E, weakening our
mid level flow. This should allow the frontal zone to nudge back N
into NC, while a surface low instigated by a passing MCV and
tracking along the front acts on increasing PW to support rain
chances, highest across the S and SE late in the evening and into
the early overnight hours, although this timing could change with
time and newer model runs. Increasing clouds and light precip
arriving in the afternoon from the west should limit heating esp
across the N, so expect high in the 70s over most of the CWA, except
some low 80s SE, although these readings depend on how far N the
front gets into the CWA. Lows in the low 50s N to low 60s SE.

Mon-Thu: While it`s unlikely to be raining all of time, pops are
expected to be greater than climatology from Memorial Day through
Tue night, as a northern stream trough gradually deepens over the
Dakotas and Upper Midwest resulting in weak cyclonic flow across the
mid and lower Miss Valley, Mid South, and Carolinas, which will
allow for increasing influence by upstream perturbations and MCVs
amidst increasing PW to 1.5-2.0". After the high rain chances Sun
night, there may be a brief lull in pops Mon morning into the
afternoon, but the uptick in dynamic forcing for ascent and
deepening moisture should support good chance to likely pops late
Mon through at least Tue evening. As surface high pressure continues
to extend into the area Mon, we could see a decent CAD event which
would keep temps quite cool, esp over the Piedmont, and will have
highs there Mon around 70 to the lower 70s (and this may not be cool
enough), with mid-upper 70s far SE. With the high rain chances to
reinforcing stability Tue and a gradual exit of the parent high off
the Mid Atlantic coast, the wedge regime is likely to last through
Tue, especially if a surface low develops along the wedge front as
some models depict, which would enhance the NE flow into the
Piedmont. Expect highs again around 70/low 70s (at best) in the NW,
with upper 70s/low 80s SE. Model solutions with the overall pattern
start to diverge markedly by mid week, particularly with the Upper
Midwest low, with some easing it eastward over the Great Lakes,
resulting in an accelerating and increasingly cyclonic flow
spreading E into the Carolinas, while others hold it over the Upper
Midwest and shear its energy E into the Northeast states. Will have
low-confidence near-climo pops Wed/Thu for now, with temps heading
back closer to normal. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 715 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected in the next 24 hours as mid and high
clouds stream across the region as an upper level trough shifts
across the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Windy conditions should settle down
after the sunsets, but until then expect 15-25kts gusts with
westerly winds of 5-15kts overnight. Gusts are expected to pick up
again in the morning generally ranging from 20-25kts.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions expected through Saturday night. Shower
and thunderstorms and associated sub-VFR restrictions return Sunday
into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...CA/CBL