Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 032307 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 705 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the western Atlantic will drift southward tonight and early Saturday, but finally push east and well offshore the middle Atlantic coast Saturday afternoon and night. The low pressure offshore combined with high pressure centered near the Great Lakes will result in the dry and cool NW flow across the middle Atlantic states through Saturday. High pressure will bring warmer conditions Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 155 PM Friday... ...Increased Fire Danger through around sunset tonight... We will continue the Special Weather Statement through 800 PM for increased fire danger. The fuel moisture levels, while drying out in the fine fuels, remained only marginally dry to moist within the 10 and 100 hour fuel sticks. This is due to the due to recent wetting rains, wet winter season, and much earlier than normal green-up. This is helping keep the fire danger, while slightly elevated from normal with the breezy and dry conditions, lower than it would otherwise be. Temperatures are rather mild, not warm to hot - another minimizing affect. For the rest of the afternoon, expect the NW winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph, minimum relative humidities 15-22 percent (lowest in the Triad), and highs in the lower 70s. Only a few cirrus/cirrocumulus from time to time as moisture aloft is lacking. Gustiness will subside this evening, with light and variable winds overnight. Skies will remain mostly clear overnight. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s with rapid dropoff as the winds die off. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 155 PM Friday... 1020 MB surface high pressure is expected to build south from WVA/western VA Saturday as heights rise aloft. The coastal system will finally get pushed east and well out into the Atlantic. It appears that most model solutions favor cloudiness associated with the circulation around the low pressure to remain confined to the NE Coastal Plain region of NC Saturday, before clearing out later in the afternoon. Some of the cloudiness may reach back to the west and south into the Triangle for a period early Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, skies will become clear Saturday night as high pressure takes over. Highs Saturday will be coolest in the NE (mid 60s) where the low level NE flow will be felt. To the south and west, highs will rebound into the lower 70s in the western Piedmont. Lows Saturday night are expected to be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday... Narrow ridging extending across the TN and OH Valley early Sunday morning collapses Sunday morning as weak disturbances in the northern and southern stream push east. A weak associated cold front will shift east and move into the southern Appalachians Sunday afternoon and then drift into western NC and southern VA by Monday morning. Weak forcing with the front, a very limited amount of instability and high cloud bases should preclude the need for any PoPs for Sunday through early Monday. Highs on Sunday will range around 70 with prefrontal lows in the lower 50s. As surface high pressure shifts off the Southeast coast on Monday, increasing southerly flow will result in a warming trend and an increase in moisture. As upper level disturbances ride over a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico, a small chance of showers and perhaps an daytime thunderstorm is possible on Monday and Tuesday with perhaps the best chance late Tuesday into Wednesday. A backdoor cold front will try to drop south into the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and move across the Carolinas on Wednesday night with a cooler air mass moving into central NC late Wednesday. The front will lift north as a warm front on Thursday before another cold front moves into the area from the northwest on Thursday night and Friday and then stalls across SC. The evolution of these surface features will have a big impact on the sensible weather and with so many features in proximity to the area, considerable uncertainty remains. -Blaes && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 705 PM Friday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Gusts will come to an end with sunset, and winds will slowly veer during the overnight and daytime hours - however winds won`t be strong enough to warrant additional lines in the TAF. Did add a second line (and wind direction change) to show the scattered mid level clouds that will make their way into RWI off the Atlantic Ocean Saturday afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather are expected through Sunday. Only slight chances for showers will increase early next week, along with potentially minimal sub-VFR conditions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Blaes AVIATION...Green/Badgett

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