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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 261347
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
946 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 946 AM Thursday...

Water vapor imagery this morning depicts mid-level ridging over the
deep south/Midwest and wnwly flow over central NC.  At the sfc, a
1032 mb high is currently anchored over central NJ. This feature
continues to extend light nely flow down into central NC. Residual
stratus this morning should largely dissipate this afternoon. Given
the cooler nely flow, highs should max out in the mid 60s to lower
70s this afternoon.

As we pivot to this evening, a warm from currently extending into
the TN valley will lift north into the Ohio Valley. This feature
will sock back in clouds overnight and perhaps provide enough
saturation to squeeze out some patchy light rain over the Triad for
a few hours tonight. Elsewhere should remain dry.  OVernight lows
will dip into the lower to mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Within a high amplitude mid-level ridge that will extend across the
ern US, a 319-320 dam anticyclone at 700 mb will become firmly
established over the Carolinas.

At the surface, 1035 mb, cP high centered just off the srn New
England coast at 12Z Sat will weaken and modify while drifting swd
and just off the Middle Atlantic coast through 12Z Sun, during which
time surface winds over cntl NC will veer from ely to sly.

A band of 700 mb-centered saturation and altocumulus will linger
across the srn Middle Atlantic, in generally nly flow around the
aforementioned anticyclone centered over the Carolinas. A
combination of that cloudiness and passing high-level moisture, some
remnant to strong-severe convection upstream across the Plains and
MS Valley, will yield partly to variably cloudy conditions over cntl
NC. Temperatures will moderate with modification of the surface high
and airmass, and veering surface flow, with highs ranging from upr
60s-low 70s across the nrn Coastal Plain and far ne Piedmont to
upper 70s-near 80 in the srn Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Unseasonably warm and mainly dry.

A slowly progressive, high amplitude ridge in the mid-levels will
drift across and offshore the South and Middle Atlantic through
Tuesday, downstream of a weak shortwave trough that will progress
through the region late Tue-Tue night. Low amplitude, quasi-zonal
flow will then prevail across the srn mid-latitudes and including
cntl NC through mid-late next week, poleward of an expansive sub-
tropical ridge that will extend from the swrn N. Atlantic wwd and
across the Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface, cP high pressure will continue to migrate swd along
and just offshore the Middle and South Atlantic coasts through early
next week. As the high drifts swd and steadily modifies, it will
direct warm sswly flow across cntl NC throughout mid-late next week.
It still appears the synoptic frontal zone will remain to the north
and west of cntl NC throughout the forecast period, while a pre-
frontal/lee trough will otherwise assume an average position across
the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont. Only isolated, diurnally-driven
convection will result in cntl NC, with the relative best chance
over the far wrn NC Piedmont Tue afternoon-evening (~30 percent),
when the aforementioned weak shortwave trough moves across the
region and interacts with the lee trough there.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: While the Triad terminals remain VFR as of 10Z,
elsewhere largely MVFR/IFR cigs prevail. Still expect the cigs at
the Triad terminals to drop to MVFR/IFR this morning and linger
there longest. Cigs should lift/scatter through the morning hours,
with a return to VFR at all terminals by early aft. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions to dominate through 03Z Sat, with a
redevelopment of some MVFR cigs tonight, mainly at KINT/KGSO, but
possible elsewhere. Some light rain/drizzle will also be possible at
KINT/KGSO early Sat morn.

Outlook: While still a bit uncertain at this time, there may be some
borderline VFR/MVFR cigs Sun morn. Otherwise, largely VFR conditions
are expected through Tue. Generally dry weather is expected through
Mon. The next chance for showers will be Tue aft/eve.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KC