Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270656 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A surface trough will linger in the lee of the Appalachians through Saturday. A cold front will cross our region early Saturday night, followed by cool high pressure for Sunday and Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 905 PM Thursday... Compact upper low, currently moving into the southern Appalachians, is forecast to transition/weaken into an open wave trough as it lifts NE across the area overnight. Convection associated with this upper low has been very underwhelming, with not one upstream report of severe weather. Given weak instability of ~500 J/KG across the area, that`s forecast to further weaken overnight due to nocturnal stabilization, the trend of no severe weather will continue across the area overnight, with only isolated to scattered thunder occurring within the eastward moving band of showers. Lows tonight will range from lower/mid 50s NW to upper 50s/near 60 SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Thursday... The bulk of the showers will lift nwd out of our region by early Friday morning. A lingering surface trough aligned north-to-south over the Piedmont will move little through the day. This feature may serve as a focus for isolated-scattered showers to develop during the afternoon heating. This feature will linger overhead through Saturday afternoon, likely attributing to the development of shallow cu. A stronger cold front associated with a s/w dropping sewd from the Great Lakes into the northern Mid Atlantic will drop into central NC Saturday night. This feature should cross the area uneventful, aside from a shower or two in vicinity of the Virginia border where moisture may be a bit more abundant compared to the rest of the forecast area. Highs Friday and Saturday will average close to normal, with highs in the low-mid 70s Friday, and mid-upper 70s Saturday. Overnight temperatures generally in the 50s. It will be notably cooler Saturday night behind the front. Min temps Saturday night should vary from the mid 40s NW to the lower 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday... Long range forecast continues to be dry with a warming trend. An upper level trough will pass across the area Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure building in early next week will allow for the airmass to begin warming concurrent with height rises behind the upper trough passage. Conditions will be dry with mostly clear skies to accompany a warming trend Tuesday through late week. Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 70s, near 80 on Tuesday, and in the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Morning lows will follow a similar trend, from around 50 Tuesday morning to around 60 Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 255 AM Friday... (V)LIFR fog and associated vertical visibility restrictions/ceilings will persist this morning at INT/GSO, owing to clearing behind a potent mid-upr level trough axis and related band of convection now pivoting newd across cntl VA, atop a (nearly) calm and residually moist surface layer. The ern edge of this dense fog and low overcast may edge into the RDU vicinity once one final batch of light, mainly VFR rain now over nrn SC/srn NC lifts newd and affects RDU/FAY/RWI, and allows some clearing in the wake at RDU after 09Z. The associated moist layer will gradually lift through MVFR range while dispersing between 12-16Z. Thereafter, VFR convective cloud bases and widely scattered, mainly VFR showers will rule for the afternoon, with the relative greatest chance/concentration at nrn TAF sites. Operationally insignificant surface winds will be light and variable this morning, and light swly to wly today and tonight. Outlook: A moisture-starved and consequently VFR cold front will cross cntl NC late Sat into early Sat night, with following VFR high pressure through early to mid next week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...mlm/Franklin AVIATION...MWS

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