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579
FXUS62 KRAH 100650
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moving across the state today will bring a chance for
severe weather across the south, followed by mostly dry weather and
below normal temperatures for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 250 AM Friday...

Low pressure is currently over southeastern Virginia with a cold
front extending back to the west-southwest. There is not a huge
temperature gradient along the front, but there is about a 10 degree
spread in the dewpoint. The parent low will continue to head
offshore, with a wave along the cold front expected to be enhanced
during the daytime by an upper level shortwave. While the forecast
still calls for a dry morning, have bumped up pops to likely across
southeastern counties, continuing with the inherited chance pops
elsewhere across the forecast area. SPC has added a slight (level 2
of 5) risk across portions of southeastern NC and northeastern SC,
including portions of Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland, and Sampson
counties. MUCAPE in this area should range between 500-1500 J/kg,
with greatest amounts to the south. Effective bulk shear between 30-
40 kt will also help to organize any thunderstorms that do develop.
Although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, the primary severe
weather threats will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. The most
likely timing for severe weather appears to be between 2 and 8pm. As
the front moves east by sunset, the chance for showers/thunderstorms
will quickly diminish, with all rain to the east of the region by
midnight. Wind gusts will pick up by late morning and continue
through the overnight hours, reaching as high as 25 mph outside of
any thunderstorms that develop. Highs will range from the mid 70s in
the north to the mid 80s in the south. Lows will be noticeably
cooler behind the front, with values ranging from the mid 40s to the
mid 50s.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 AM Friday...

Today`s cold front will be well offshore by Saturday morning,
although a second low pressure system will be over the Great Lakes
with another cold front extending to the south. The low will track
east to New York by Sunday morning, and moisture with the associated
cold front is not expected to track too far to the south. In fact,
southern counties should remain mostly sunny through the day. Have
gone with a slight chance of showers to the north of US-64 during
the late afternoon and early evening, and this may be overdone. The
effects of today`s cold front will continue to be felt on Saturday,
with some locations along the VA/NC border remaining in the upper
60s for highs and the rest of the area in the 70s. Saturday night`s
lows will be similar to tonight`s reading, in the mid 40s to the mid
50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 211 PM Thursday...

Sunday will see mostly sunny skies and continued cool/dry conditions
as weak cyclonic flow aloft gradually flattens out as a ridge builds
to our west. Look for another day of below normal highs (mid 70s)
with low temps once again falling into the upper 40s to low 50s. No
concerns about precip as all forcing will be displaced well to the
northeast of the area.

The overall pattern next week looks to be active once again. An
upper low over the Central Plains will slowly migrate eastward on
Monday, inducing downstream ridging across the Southeast states and
ultimately resulting in a fairly quiet day across NC with near
normal temps and dry weather. This will ultimately change though as
the low migrates into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Broad/weak forcing
for ascent will overspread much of the Southeast on Tuesday
coincident with an increase in moisture transport (PW`s will be back
above 1.5 inches by Tuesday morning). Showers are expected across
the area on Tuesday although just how quickly they arrive is still a
little unclear (daybreak Tuesday vs afternoon). Regardless, Tuesday
is likely to see widespread cloud cover and rainfall with cooler
temps as a result. While thunder seems unlikely at this stage
(instability displaced well to the south), precip chances will
likely be maximized during the daytime hours with lesser chances
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will see continued precip chances as the upper low opens
up and moves through the central Mid Atlantic. As PW`s will remain
elevated and the area will be well within the warm sector,
instability will be much more readily available on Wednesday ahead
of the trough and shower/thunderstorm chances should be a bit higher
(60-70 percent range) especially during the afternoon hours. It`s
also likely that we`ll have at least some clearing to start the day
and temps should make it up into the low/mid 80s prior to the
arrival of the trough.

Thursday should start off dry in the wake of the departing low, but
this looks to be short lived. While shortwave ridging aloft will
build in early in the day, this will quickly turn southwesterly as
yet another longwave trough sets up across the Central Plains and
kicks out a series of embedded shortwaves across the Southeast
states through the end of the week. This would favor diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening,
followed by drying overnight.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. The primary potential for any flight restrictions would come
with precipitation moving through FAY during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Am not forecasting any widespread ceilings under
10,000 ft. Will maintain the PROB30 for TSRA at FAY as well as
adding VCSH for an extended period during the afternoon. Think there
could also be some scattered showers at RWI, but confidence is too
low to include a mention of precipitation at other sites, although
it will remain a possibility. Winds will gust as a cold front moves
through, with values up to 20-25 kt as the wind direction shifts
from southwest to northwest. Gusts should continue after sunset.

Outlook: An isolated shower cannot be ruled out at INT/GSO Saturday
afternoon. The next chance of precipitation will come Monday night
and Tuesday as low pressure moves into the mid-Atlantic states.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...Green