Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 290919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
119 AM PST Sat Jan 29 2022


Blocking high pressure will maintain dry and generally quiet
weather through the upcoming week. A passing low pressure system
and a cold front will bring increased winds with cooler
temperatures to kick off February. Forecast storm track remains
grim for bringing meaningful precipitation to the Sierra and
western Nevada.



Quiet, dry weather pattern will persist through the weekend as
high pressure remains a fixture across the West. Only
"entertainment" this weekend will be from increasing mid to high
level cloudiness from a closed upper level low scooting across
southern California today. Otherwise, no impacts are expected in
the Sierra and western Nevada from the low passage. Plan on mild
late day temperatures with light winds, valley inversions, and
impacts to air quality from poor ventilation/mixing.

High pressure will weaken a touch in response to an inland trough
dropping into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring, you guessed
it, another dry cold front through the region on Tuesday. Plan on
breezy north winds and then a shift to the east winds later in
the day. Primary impacts will be along the Sierra crest with wind
gusts strong enough to impact ski operations and backcountry
recreation (50-70 mph) into Wednesday. Otherwise, the lower
valleys may mix out a touch and the cold front will bring a shot
of colder air to the region, with Wednesday likely the coolest
day of the week--highs mainly in the 30s for Sierra valleys and
lower 40s for western NV. There is a less than 10% chance of very
spotty snow showers possible for the Sierra Tuesday afternoon-
evening, but 90% it will just be clouds. So there`s that.
Simulations are also bringing a secondary shortwave through the
large scale trough on Thursday, with another round of north to
east winds (lesser speeds compared to Wednesday). This would also
lead to another day of cooler than average highs, before milder
conditions return by next weekend.

Ensemble cluster analysis continues to show a strong ridge signal
setting up over the Eastern Pacific. This is what experts call
"bad news bears" in terms of precipitation potential for the
eastern Sierra and western Nevada. This blocking ridge pattern
will deflect any incoming subtropical Pacific moisture from making
landfall with the West Coast. Only systems that stand a chance
will be dropping in from the north, and primarily be dry in




VFR conditions with light winds and dry conditions are forecast
through the weekend. Increasing mid and high level clouds today
as a closed low moves across southern CA, but otherwise no
impactful weather for the Sierra and western NV associated with
it. Only exception will be that KTRK may experience some patchy
freezing fog again early this morning.



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