Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 211055
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
255 AM PST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A few snow showers with light accumulations are possible today
behind a cold front that moved through the region last night.
Below average temperatures today and tonight will rebound to a
few degrees above normal by midweek with a break in storms
expected through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The upper level trough is currently over the Sierra with lingering
showers moving northwest to southeast. This gives little
orographic support along the west slopes of the Sierra but is
allowing for deformation showers in western Nevada. Snow levels
fell more or less as anticipated yesterday, until they reached
about 4700 feet where they stalled out. 2 AM temperature at the
Reno Airport continuing to remain a few degrees above freezing.

We`ll allow all the winter weather products to expire at 4 AM with
the morning forecast package. We could still see some light
accumulations of an inch or less around the region today (up to 2
inches in the Sierra), but they will be isolated. The current
Avalanche Warning goes through 7 AM, though another warning is
possible and would be updated at that time if warranted. The only
advisory remaining will be a wind advisory for southern Mineral
County where winds could gust up to as much as 40-60 mph this
afternoon as a strong surface gradient forms behind the cold
front.

Stronger easterly winds are expected to pick up again tonight
along the Sierra crest as a strong gradient forms between the
colder air dropping into the Great Basin and warmer air in
California. Winds could again gust in the 60-80 mph range,
especially in the eastern Sierra.

Quiet weather with rising temperatures will be the story for
Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure begins to build off the
California coast. -Zach


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

No substantive changes were made to the extended portion of the
forecast this cycle. Our region should remain under the influence of
a ridge axis to the west. That should keep the region dry with
northwest flow aloft and north to east flow at the surface...
maintaining weak valley inversions. This means poor mixing early
each day with marginal mixing by afternoon and high temperatures
near average.

The GFS does hint at a weak upper level wave dropping south across
the region Friday. That would mostly just increase mid and high
level clouds. The ECMWF shows the potential for a stronger wave
dropping south late Sunday. This is not noted on the GFS solution.
If this were to materialize...we could see isolated to scattered
snow showers over the far eastern part of the forecast area Sunday
evening...but we will leave this out of the forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION...

As the upper level trough that brought precipitation to the region
Sunday exits to the east today...expect periodic snow showers over
much of eastern California and western Nevada through the day. The
better coverage is likely to be in the Sierra and in far eastern
portions of Pershing and Churchill counties. MVFR/IFR conditions are
expected in the heavier showers. Additional accumulations at area
terminals should be light...less than an inch in the lower valleys
of western Nevada and northeast California...with up to 2 inches
possible at the Sierra terminals.

Gusty winds continue to be a threat today...especially over the
ridge tops and in areas of western Nevada along and east of Highway
95. Turbulence is possible both over the ridges and in near surface
areas where winds are the strongest in the Western Nevada Basin and
Range.

Gusty northeast winds develop over the Sierra ridges late tonight
and early Tuesday with turbulence chances shifting to the west side
of the range.

High pressure builds to the west the remainder of the week with dry
conditions. There is a possibility of freezing fog at KTRK/KTVL/KMMH
later tonight/Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning.

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ001.
CA...None.


&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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