Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 210905
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
205 AM PDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure dropping into far northern California will bring a
chance for a few thunderstorms north of Susanville and Gerlach
today. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail for the upcoming week
as temperatures ease down closer to average, with further cooling
possible toward early next week. Typical afternoon and evening
breezes are expected for the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

As low pressure dips southward into far northern portions of CA-
NV, an area of instability with a bit of upper level forcing
should lead to a few showers and thunderstorms today across far
northeast CA and northwest NV north of Gerlach. Some of this
activity could develop this morning, with best overall chances
during the afternoon before the low kicks out to the east and ends
the shower/thunder chances this evening. Convection is likely to
be relatively shallow and result more from elevated instability,
which would bring the potential for isolated dry lightning strikes
while dry air in the low levels may allow for gusty outflow
winds. Slow storm motions or training cells could eventually
produce a bit of rainfall.

Typical late afternoon/evening zephyr breezes are expected today
through Thursday, with gusts generally 20-25 mph. A weak cool
front dropping into northern NV will likely shift winds to a
northerly direction by this evening and overnight across parts of
western NV, mainly north of a Pyramid Lake-Lovelock line.

While today will be the day with Reno setting a new streak for 90+
degree highs (52 consecutive days), temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler than yesterday due to the influence of the northern
CA upper low. Highs then remain nearly steady through Thursday
with mainly lower 90s for western NV valleys and lower 80s near
the Sierra. Cooler nights are also expected with lows in the
40s/50s, and 30s for the cooler Sierra valleys.

Areas of smoke and haze will remain around much of the region for
the next few days, due to many active large fires in northern
California, Oregon and north central NV. MJD

.LONG TERM...

Models are in good agreement with strong and blocking ridge
developing over the central Pacific with a trough along the west
coast for the weekend. This ridge may remain in place into the
first week of September, meaning we may be in for a persistent
weather pattern over the next week or two.

With the trough nearby, it should produce enough cooling to
finally break the string of 90 degree days across western NV this
weekend or early next week. Highs would fall off into the 80s for
the NV valleys (70s for the Sierra) which may feel a tad chilly
given the duration of the 90 degree days and frequency of triple
digit highs over the last two months.

Unfortunately, the trough along the west coast will kick up the
winds with potential for critical fire weather conditions this
weekend. Right now it appears Sunday may be the day, but that
could change with the variability in position of the trough.

A few simulations produce some showers over Lassen, northern
Washoe and the Surprise valley, late Monday and into Tuesday.
Moisture isn`t a big feature in the simulations, so any
precipitation totals would be rather light. Brong

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along and just
north of Susanville CA to Winnemucca NV this afternoon. A few
gusty outflows to 40 kts are possible.

Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce surface visibility, from
Lassen County eastward into Pershing and Churchill counties and
in portions of Alpine and Mono counties. Reported visibilities
have dropped to 4 to 6 miles, but lower values are likely in some
valleys. Brong

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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