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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 060109 AAA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
809 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in the area through the middle of next week. Next
frontal system late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 808 PM Friday...

Only change of significance was to bump min temps for tonight
downward a few degrees for elevations above 3kft. Otherwise,
forecast remains on track with quiet and cold conditions
expected.


As of 457 PM Friday...

Have increased cloud cover quite a bit for late this afternoon
and into the evening hours for the southern third of the CWA.
Rather dense mid/upper level cloud shield is rapidly spreading
into the region with guidance indicating it will likely persist
for much of the evening.

As of 120 PM Friday...

Surface high pressure continues in control through tonight
providing mostly clear skies and light and variable wind. With cold
airmass in place and the expected cooling could bring tonight`s
temperatures into the lower 20s lowlands, ranging into the mid teens
higher elevations.

Breezy conditions could return this afternoon but will will depend
on how much wind can be mixed out by the lower atmosphere through
the evening. Then, expect lower atmosphere to decouple for winds to
become calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

Surface high pressure continues to hold over the area as upper level
ridging moves in from the west. This will allow skies to remain
mostly clear and for dry, quiet weather to continue for the area
through the short term period. Saturday and Sunday night will both
be cool with lows in the low to mid 20s for the lowlands and upper
teens to lower 20s in the mountains. Sunday will continue to be on
the chilly side with temperatures in the low to mid 40s for the
lowlands and upper 20s to 30s for the higher elevations.
Temperatures will warm up into Monday as flow transitions to become
more southerly/southwesterly with much of the area getting into the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Friday...

High pressure and upper level ridging continue to remain in control
Tuesday and Wednesday as dry weather persists through the middle of
the week. Southerly flow will allow temperatures to gradually
increase throughout the week, warming up into the mid to upper 60s
for much of the area by the second half of the week.

The next chance for precipitation moves in for the latter half of
next week as a system approaches from the west, pushing the high
pressure out of the area. The models show a surface low from the
southwest approach the Great Lakes and continue to move off to the
northeast, staying to the north of the area. A cold front
associated with the low gradually approaches the area through
the week. The models have a generally similar path with this
system, but do differ on timing a bit. The ECMWF brings a wave
of moisture to the northern half of the area ahead of the system
late Wednesday night while the Canadian and GFS continue to
keep the area dry. The Canadian and GFS then bring the front
through Friday with the ECMWF lagging slightly behind, bringing
it through Friday night. Overall, have kept in chances of
precipitation for the area for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 606 PM Friday...

VFR through the 00z TAF period.

Some dense mid/upper level cloudiness may spread across the
southern half of WV and adjacent VA/KY, but no llvl cloudiness
or associated aviation weather impacts are expected at this
time.

NWrly sfc winds should fall to 5 kts or less overnight,
eventually becoming brisk and occasionally gusty from the NW
again Sat midday/afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/CG
NEAR TERM...RH/ARJ
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RH