Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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047 FXUS61 KRLX 160730 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 330 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front affects the area first half of next week with high pressure building in with a notable warming trend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Sunday... A shortwave crossing through the area may bring a few light showers into the area during the day; however, dry air in the low levels will need to be overcome for rain to reach the ground. The best chances for rain showers today will be along the mountains during the morning hours. In the afternoon, any showers are expected taper off and some clearing may occur as the shortwave shifts east. Meanwhile, a warm front will be slowly approaching the area from the south. Rain chances will return by late tonight and are expected to increase south to north across the area as this front nears. Today`s temperatures are expected to reach low 70s in the lowlands and 50s to 60s in the mountains. Tonight will be a bit warmer than the previous night with lows in the 50s in the lowlands and 40s in the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Sunday... A stream of Gulf moisture ends its circuitous path north through the southern and central plains then eastward paralleling a slow moving elevated warm front. Atop this, synoptic ascent associated with the right rear quadrant of a departing 100KT H250 jet core should yield a fairly narrow swath of mainly light rainfall roughly oriented WNW-ESE while areas away from the boundary remain largely dry through the day. Still have some spread in the models regarding frontal position with the GFS and EC solutions suggesting it could make it as far north as I-64 while WRF based solutions keep it mainly just south of our southern border. Will continue to depict a slightly wider PoP swath to account for this spread, but this should continue to tighten over the next couple cycles. Rainfall amounts will largely be contingent on the proximity of the frontal zone to the aforementioned upper level divergence with around a quarter of an inch possible with the south offset frontal zone with the WRF based solutions and close to half to one inch with the EC/GFS with better alignment of upper forcing and theta-e feed. Instability will be quite limited given substantial cloud cover associated with the front and poor mid- level lapse rates, but couldn`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Better forcing for ascent largely exits the region with mid-level heights beginning to build Tuesday while the elevated warm front remains in the vicinity of our southern counties. This will yield some continuation of mainly light showers during the morning hours with a few rumbles of thunder possible by the afternoon as modest surface based instability builds with heating away from lingering cloud coverage associated with the remnants of the elevated warm front across the south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Ensemble guidance continues to trend toward a stronger East Coast ridge/heat dome pattern for the extended forecast with rather tight interquartile EPS/GEFS ranges lending confidence to the forecast. Ensemble means now depict +2 to 2.5 sigma, near climatological maximum height values for this time of the year through the column Wednesday into the weekend. Both model families support a wobbly surface high meandering between the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain and the upper TN valley. A substantial plume of strong mid-level lapse rates sourced from N Mexico will remain confined to the high plains of W TX under sustained southerly flow with an extended diurnal cycle of severe for those locales. Given a bit stronger ridging than the previous forecast cycle and a bit more marginal low level moisture in place in our neighborhood, think any afternoon pop-up convection might be hard to come by for at least Wednesday through Friday and will not make any changes to central guidance indicating a clean forecast. As the upper ridge begins to become slightly suppressed equatorward heading into the weekend, may see some of the aforementioned steeper lapse rates associated with the elevated mixed layer beginning to try to work into the northern half of the forecast area amid increasingly westerly flow. This potentially yields some slightly better TS chances for the afternoon hours Saturday and Sunday depending on degree of upstream overturning, but difficult to justify more than isolated coverage this far out with models trending toward a stronger ridge. Daytime highs through the period will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year with overnight lows to near just above normal values given relatively tame low level moisture. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 AM Sunday... VFR conditions are expected for the rest of tonight though mid to upper level clouds will continue to move into the area. Ceilings will begin to lower during the day as a warm front approaches to the south; however, sites should remain VFR throughout the period. Chances for rain showers will exist mainly along and near the mountains during the day, so have maintained -SHRA for CKB, EKN, BKW, and CRW. Winds start off calm overnight, then will be light for the rest of the 06Z TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and timing of -SHRA during the day may vary from forecast. MVFR may occur at BKW this evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/16/21 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JLB

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