-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
866
FXUS61 KRLX 010055
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
855 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms through Tuesday in advance of a cold front that
crosses Tuesday night. Some storms could be strong to severe, along
with the potential for localized flooding. Dry Wednesday onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 600 PM Monday...

Showers/storms have developed throughout the afternoon amid a
moderately buoyant, but relatively low shear environment, with a
subtle mid-level cap in place. Activity has been primarily
confined across the higher terrain courtesy of anabatic
convergence, then further north across the Mid-Ohio Valley and
northern WV lowlands where slightly great synoptic forcing
exists with a weak shortwave crossing to the north. In between,
activity has been quite muted, although meandering outflow
boundaries from prior convection is now allowing for some ISO
showers/storms to initiate through the aforementioned cap.

Going forward, expect an uptick in showers/storms through the
evening given the activity further west and some outflow
boundary interactions resulting in additional thunderstorm
development. The main threats with activity this evening into
early tonight continues to be strong to isolated severe wind
gusts, along with the potential for flash flooding. Given mean
steering flow moving closer to 15-20 kts at this point, hydro
concerns would primarily result in areas that receive training
of showers/storms or multiple waves, or have had heavy rain in
the last few days.

A steady decrease in activity is expected overnight following
the passage of the shortwave and loss of daytime heating,
although ISO showers/storms remain possible, along with some
patchy fog. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 1228 PM Monday...

Showers and storms will ramp up again this afternoon, in the
humid/unstable environment, and as a shortwave crosses the Ohio
Valley region. Widespread severe is not anticipated, but there is a
continued downburst/damaging wind threat, along with a continued
threat for localized flash flooding, as overall steering flow
remains around 15kts or less and PWATs remain anomalously high. SPC
has much of the area highlighted in a marginal risk today for the
downburst potential. The bulk of the convection should wane somewhat
overnight, however, another shortwave, and surface cold front will
be approaching from the west by early Tuesday, with an increase in
shower and storm coverage. An isolated strong to severe storm is
possible owing to a slight uptick in shear, with damaging winds the
primary threat. The cold front will arrive Tuesday afternoon/evening
and should be east of the area by Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1228 PM Monday...

Cold front should generally be to the east of the area by Wednesday
morning or early afternoon. A few showers or storms are still
possible Wednesday from passing weak disturbances, but most areas
should be dry. A secondary front crosses the area Thursday. Once
again, an isolated shower or storm is possible, but for the most
part, the area should be dry, and overall less humid than as of
late.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1228 PM Monday...

Increasing temperatures and humidity look to round out the extended
as upper heights build across the area. Showers and thunderstorms
will also be on the increase over the weekend, mainly diurnal in
nature. Ridge looks to break down somewhat towards the end of the
extended period, as a disturbance moves across the north.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 840 PM Monday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area at
present will gradually dissipate through early tonight, although
an ISO shower/storm remains possible through tonight. Brief
IFR/MVFR restrictions are possible in any heavier showers/storms.
The main aviation concern overnight will be the potential for
MVFR/IFR fog (in valleys and where rain occurred today) and
some MVFR stratus. Did insert fog into most of the TAFs, with
BKW being the exception. Fog should dissipate by ~ 11-12Z, while
MVFR CIGs with stratus linger through the morning/afternoon
across much of the area. Another round of showers/storms is
expected on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the area,
primarily during the afternoon/evening hours. Brief MVFR/IFR
VSBY restrictions are likely with heavier showers/storms, along
with the potential for strong, gusty winds.

Light southwest flow is expected through much of the TAF period,
veering towards W/NW at the end of the period. Strong, gusty
winds are possible with thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of shower/thunderstorm activity may
vary from the forecast this evening, then again on Tuesday. Fog
timing, coverage, and intensity overnight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       TUE 07/01/25
UTC 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
EDT 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms through early Tuesday
night, and in valley fog Wednesday/Thursday/Friday mornings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW