Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 242331 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 731 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Hazy, very warm, and humid for much of this week as summer- like upper level ridge builds into the region. Cold front late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 720 PM Sunday... Made some additional updates to increase PoPs across Mingo/Logan county this afternoon to reflect nearly stationary robust upright convection. Also increased cloud cover overnight with substantial convective debris being generated from an area of storms across Eastern Kentucky, Southern West Virginia and Western Virginia. As of 350 PM Sunday... Added an isolated shower/thunderstorm mention across portions of the Middle Ohio Valley for the next couple hours where a few convective towers are poking up enough to produce measurable precip. These should wane quickly with loss of heating this afternoon. Storms drifting toward the Tri-State area may persist a little further into the evening where a combination of very weak upper level divergence and weak low level ascent along the theta-e ridge exists. As of 202 PM Sunday... An outflow boundary was pushing south and west of Kanawha County, resulting in isolated to widely scattered convective development. Farther east, more significant heavy convection was occurring along the CWA mountain spine. Convection across the mountains is likely to continue progressing east during the afternoon with renewed development of a few more isolated showers possible in its wake. Across the southern and the southwest portion of the CWA, convection should start to pop over the next couple of hours as ConvT values are exceeded and as the outflow boundary pushes into an area with maximized diurnal heating and SBCAPES of 2500 to 3000 j/kg. Overall, slow moving pulse convection should occur with some highly efficient production likely. This may result in some isolated high water impacts, but the overall flash flood threat today is low. Convection should rapidly dissipate by early evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling. Some debris CI may occur for the first half of the night, but significant clearing is likely. Late night fog may occur, with the best chances expected to be across the NE CWA and a few area river valleys. H5 ridging is prog to strengthen across the CWA on Memorial Day. This increase in height fields and associated subsidence should result in hotter conditions and less coverage of convection in the afternoon. Still expecting isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven convection to occur, mainly across the western CWA where moisture depth is prog to be slightly greater and height fields the lowest...and also along the mountains where modest orographic effects may aid in some development. Muggy conditions tonight as dewpoints remain high and soils continue to stay saturated. Very warm to hot on Memorial Day with little in the way of a breeze across the lower elevations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday... Upper level ridging begins to break down and succumb to incoming moisture from the west Tuesday afternoon, but will ultimately prevail in keeping rain west of the Ohio River. The ridge will then shift eastward by midweek and allow for a greater likelihood and spread of precip Wednesday afternoon, approaching from all quadrants except from the north. Temperatures remain above normal through the period under the ridge and looks to remain that way into the long term period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday... Active weather ramps back up and results in a soaking end to the work week. Upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward and make way for a developing low forming in the central US. Moisture transport and continued warm advection will place the region in the warm sector of the developing system, which will pose a better potential for strong to severe storms Friday and Saturday afternoons. Eventual cold front will cross through for the start of the weekend with high pressure building in its wake. Temperatures will rebound behind the frontal passage Saturday, but beforehand above average temps will be the norm in the lowlands. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 720 PM Sunday... Convective debris from storms across E KY, W VA and S WV producing cigs 100-200 will slow any patchy fog formation overnight. The one exception will be at EKN with fresh rainfall and clear skies through the early evening should radiate out enough for at least some more dense fog. Should largely see any lingering convective debris clearing by morning and have gone 5-6SM in mist at the other terminals for a couple hours near daybreak. Popcorn convection likely again Memorial Day afternoon, but should see far less coverage than today with minimal morning activity. Generally weak SSWrly sfc winds through the period, except more SErly at KBKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage may vary overnight depending on timing scattering of convective debris. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/MEK NEAR TERM...RH/JP SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JP

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