Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221720 CCA AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Charleston WV 120 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure today. Upper low Monday through Wednesday. Weak high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1043 AM Sunday... Forecast is in good shape this morning. Temps are tricky due to high clouds but they appear to remain thin enough to allow most lower elevation locations to rise into the lower 70s. Enjoy... As of 105 AM Sunday... A high pressure system will control the weather today. However, the right rear of an upper level jet will provide some high clouds. Looking at soundings, expect that dry air will mix to the ground during the afternoon hours. Therefore, will go on the lower side of dewpoints. An approaching upper level low will provide some clouds tonight with chances of showers moving into some of the southern counties late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM Sunday... A showery pattern will be the rule early next week with the approach of an upper level system. Tuesday looks like the wettest of days, though remaining mild throughout. Overall a good setup for folks wanting to put down some grass seed, like myself, and let mother nature do the watering in. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 AM Sunday... Weak high pressure builds in behind the departing upper level system for Thursday and part of Friday. Thereafter, a cold front will cross with showers and cooler air to follow for the weekend. Just how cool remains uncertain with some disagreement on the models of just how amplified this upper trof will be. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 112 PM Sunday... While VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period, an approaching storm system to our west will cause increasing winds aloft. This will cause a marginal low-level wind shear risk at CRW and EKN overnight tonight. Surface winds at BKW get strong enough overnight to preclude a LLWS mention in that TAF. Otherwise, surface winds will increase after dawn on Monday elsewhere and become gusty. High clouds in place now will gradually lower as moisture increases Monday morning and a band of rain will advance northeastward toward HTS and BKW by the end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible late Monday afternoon and Monday night under moderate rainfall. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...ABE/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ABE

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