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000
FXUS61 KRLX 221942
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry through Tuesday, with frost possible again tonight. Rain returns
Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. Dry and warming through the end
of the work week. Becoming hot with next chances of rain for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 310 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Frost Advisory in effect tonight for portions of the area.
* Dry/breezy conditions on Tuesday lead to elevated fire danger.

Elongated surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS has
provided a beautiful afternoon across the region under mostly
sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures. High temperatures
will top out in the upper 50s to low 60s across the lowlands,
approximately 10 degrees below normal.

Another chilly night is ahead courtesy of lingering surface
high pressure ahead of the next disturbance approaching from the
west. There will be some SCT cirrus moving across the region,
but that shouldn`t impact radiation too much. The bigger impact
could be a tightening pressure gradient that will slowly
strengthen SFC-H850 flow across the Mid-Ohio Valley as the night
progresses. Further southeast, flow will remain light through
much of the night. Given this, combined with low dew points
(currently in the mid 20s across much of the area) courtesy of
afternoon mixing, do anticipate outpacing guidance on the cold
side once again tonight, with low to mid 30s across the typical
lowland cold spots, particularly south/east of the Ohio River
where a Frost Advisory has been issued from 1 to 9 AM on
Tuesday. There will still be some patchy frost further
northwest across the typical valley cold spots, but don`t think
it will be widespread enough to warrant an advisory. Have
issued an SPS to highlight this potential however. Cold
overnight temperatures and warm rivers could once again result
in a bit of steam fog in some areas, although this shouldn`t be
widespread.

Strengthening southwest return flow on Tuesday will result in
warmer temperatures across the area, amid a sun/cloud mix as a
cold front approaches the region. Highs top out in the upper
60s to low 70s across the lowlands, with breezy conditions
area-wide during the afternoon hours, with gusts of 15-25 MPH
expected. This leads to an enhanced fire danger Tuesday
afternoon/evening, with more details provided in the fire
weather section below. A few showers are possible Tuesday
evening across our far northwest zones in SE OH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Cold front crosses Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
* Dry conditions return by late Wednesday.

A cold front arrives Tuesday night and spreads precipitation across
the area as it progresses eastward into Wednesday morning. While a
rumble of thunder or two cannot be completely discounted during the
frontal passage, potential is rather low due to a lack of
instability. The front exits to the east Wednesday morning,
then showers taper off from west to east allowing drier
conditions to return to the area by evening. Total precipitation
amounts from Tuesday night through Wednesday should be light,
generally amounting to less than half an inch.

Low temperatures for Tuesday night are expected to range from 40s to
low 50s. Highs remain below normal during the day Wednesday,
with upper 50s to 60s in the lowlands and upper 40s to low 60s
for the mountains. A cool, dry air mass builds in behind the
front Wednesday night and allows low temperatures to dip into
the 30s to low 40s. Between chilly temperatures and clearing
skies, frost may develop late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Frost possible Thursday morning.
* System arrives late week into the weekend.
* Warming trend sets in late this week into early next week.

High pressure brings another period of dry weather Thursday
through Thursday night, then a more active pattern initiates
with a late week system.

Precipitation chances increase Friday into Saturday as a low
tracks out of the Central Plains towards Ontario and lifts a
warm front towards and then across the CWA. This low progresses
east away from the area during the weekend, while another low
tracks out of the southwest US and into the Central Plains. The
second system then continues northeast towards the Great Lakes
early in the new work week. During this time, southerly flow
continues to transport warm, moist air into the CWA and sustains
chances of showers and afternoon thunderstorms into early next
week.

After a brisk, potentially frosty Thursday morning,
temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s to low 70s in the
lowlands and mid 50s to 60s in the mountains. A stout warming
trend then takes hold and allows temperatures to rise above
normal this weekend. Above normal temperatures persist early
next week, with highs likely to rise into the 80s across much of
the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF
period. Mostly clear skies today will give way to FEW-SCT cirrus
at times throughout the night. This trend continues Tuesday
morning, with perhaps a bit of fair weather Cu developing late
Tuesday morning into the afternoon.

Light WSW to WNW flow is expected through this evening. Flow
remains light or goes calm tonight. Surface flow backs to
southwest throughout Tuesday morning, strengthening as it does
so. Gusts of 15-20 kts are possible area-wide by late morning
into the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in rain showers and stratus early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 300 PM Monday...

High pressure provides dry weather through Tuesday. Relative humidity
bottoms out in the mid 20s to low 30s this afternoon, but under light
and variable flow. Relative humidity values recover to 60 to 90 percent
overnight. Warmer and breezy conditions develop during the day on
Tuesday in advance of the next disturbance. Winds will be out of the
southwest, with gusts of 15 to 25 miles per hour possible during the
afternoon and evening hours. Relative humidity values will bottom out
in the low 20s to low 30s, resulting in an enhanced fire danger across
the region. A Fire Danger Statement may be needed on Tuesday. Showers
move in Tuesday night, providing a wetting rain area-wide.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ005-006-
     008-013>020-024>034-039-040.
OH...None.
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ105.
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...GW
FIRE WEATHER...GW