Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171024 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 624 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold air surging in behind a cold front, with snow showers. Mid April freeze expected tonight. Another cold front moves through mid week, with upslope snow for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 625 AM Tuesday... Tweaked the forecast to better reflect current obs and trends, but no significant changes made. As of 135 AM Tuesday... Cold air advection continues through mid morning, especially across the north, so have lingered isolated to scattered snow showers through around 18Z across the lower elevations of the northern forecast area, and until just after 00Z in the mountains. Farther south and west, have snow showers tapering off early this morning with just some lingering flurries through mid morning. Clouds will gradually lift and break up from south to north through the day. A warm front begins moving in from the SW tonight, have have some very low end POPs developing in the central mountains after midnight. It looks like temperatures will be warm enough for this to be light rain, but did include some flakes initially.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM Tuesday... Warm frontal boundary will lift north across the area on Wednesday, with warmer temperatures, and the possibility of an isolated shower, although main impact will be warmer temperatures and increased cloud cover. Surface low/upper shortwave trough will move into the region late Wednesday into Thursday, with rain showers developing area wide, transitioning to snow showers on Friday, as colder air filters into the region. Friday will gradually dry out as high pressure builds into the region from the west. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 205 AM Tuesday... Finally some drier weather will take hold across the areas for the weekend. Precipitation will return to the area by early next week as low pressure moves across the southeastern U.S. Best chance for precipitation looks to be across southern zones. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 620 AM Tuesday... Cold air advection continues to provide light snow showers or flurries. For most areas expect VFR to MVFR in these, but could see periods of IFR across the mountains in the heavier showers into mid morning. Clouds will gradually lift and break up through the day...beginning at MVFR initially and becoming VFR from south to north. A warm front will begin lifting north tonight and will bring some lowering of clouds. Included MVFR at BKW with this. Winds will remain rather gusty through today, and then diminish tonight. Could also get some low level wind shear after midnight tonight as winds begin turning more southerly above the surface. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions in snow could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M H H H L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L M L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M L L M L L H M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L M L L L L L L L M L AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>031. OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.