Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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892 FXUS61 KRLX 230545 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 145 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in place tonight and exiting Friday. Another low pressure system this weekend. Dry start, with a warming trend, to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 940 PM Thursday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary. As of 230 PM Thursday... Have hemmed and hawed about removing the flurry potential in the highest ridges of the northeast mountains for the rest of today given the moisture depth issues, but have left them in for a few more hours with the stubborn stratocu over that area. Otherwise, the progressive pattern on the synoptic scale has allowed for a dry and tranquil period through the next 30 hours or so. High pressure dominates ahead of a surface low that will be heading towards the Tennessee Valley beyond the near term. Expecting skies to completely clear tonight and Friday except for sparse coverage of high clouds. No real chances for temperature recovery from the cold week going into Friday, but there will be modest increases with some of the lowland areas topping the 50 degree mark. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 420 PM Thursday... Low pressure, and its attendant upper level short wave trough, tracks east-southeast, and pass of the area, late friday night through Saturday. Models have come into better agreement on this southward track, with impacts mainly across central and southern portions of the area. Like on Wednesday, the daytime temperatures across the lowlands will be right near or a little above freezing, so the early spring insolation will easily be able to limit accumulations there. These temperatures were lowered a bit from central guidance Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Models also minimize the warm nose aloft, which, together with the boundary layer warmth of early spring, all but eliminates the possibility for freezing rain, Sleet is also limited, though there may be small pellets at the end Saturday night, as the moisture depth decreases out of the favored dendritic growth zone, and the out of the ice in cloud zone. Central guidance reflected the higher of the QPF solutions among the two highest operational models. Even with that, snow totals are at or slightly below previous values. This places totals near advisory criteria in NE KY, and near warning criteria for but a small sliver of the higher mountainous terrain, but only when comparing 12-hour criteria with 24 hour amounts, 06Z Saturday through 06Z Sunday. Thus have decided to hold off on a winter storm watch for now, as only half a county would be under consideration at this time, and advisories would come later as needed. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 420 PM Thursday... High pressure and upper level ridging dominate to start the period, with a warming trend through Wednesday. However, a frontal system with multiple weak waves moving along it, slowly approaches during this time. This gives rise to the chance for rain starting Tuesday, as the upper level ridge flattens, and northern and southern stream short wave trough approach from the west Wednesday through Thursday, pushing the surface front closer. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 142 AM Friday... Building high pressure will provide widespread VFR conditions through the period most of the period. Some lingering stratocu across the southern mountains will dissipate this morning. Some weak CAA may allow for stratocu to form in the afternoon across the northern mountains, affecting CKB and EKN. Again, still looking at VFR as bases hug around 4 kft. High clouds advance into the area overnight tonight with bases lowering toward dawn Saturday. Thereafter, a band of heavy wet snow will work northeast into southern terminals 12 to 15Z, with IFR or worse conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/23/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR in rain/snow with the next system on Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...JSH/TRM LONG TERM...JSH/TRM AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.