Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210644 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 244 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system brings rain transitioning to all snow tonight into Wednesday night. High pressure takes control late week, followed by another low pressure system next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... Overall, no significant changes to the current forecast thinking. Upper low will continue to rotate across the area through at least the first part of today before finally moving off to the east this afternoon and evening. Much of the southern WV zones have yet to change over to snow, but this is generally expected to occur over the next few hours, by 09Z or so. Still, much of the snowfall accumulations across southern lowlands will be limited, due to warmer boundary layer temperatures, with most accumulations still expected across the mountains. Did bump up snowfall forecasts this evening across parts of the northern mountains and at EKN based on heavier bands evident on radar. Also increased totals a bit across northern WV and adjacent SE Ohio zones. Overall, despite the small increases in locations, current warning/advisory headlines look good, and will keep as is at this point with no changes. Otherwise, winds will gradually shift to a more northwesterly direction today as the upper low starts to move east, with occasional gusts in the teens this afternoon, slightly higher in the mountains. Precipitation will gradually taper off later this evening as the low continues to pull away from the area. Will see some lingering upslope snow in the mountains late tonight, but overall timing of ending of heavier precipitation, and current timing of headlines look ok at this point. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Tuesday... As the upper low departs off the coast towards the Atlantic Canada, snow showers will end early Wednesday night, while high pressure moves in from the southwest. Heights will rise, but only a modest temperature recovery can be expected. However, temperatures will remain below normal for the end of the week. Developing mid latitude cyclone over the central plains pushes eastward for the extended portion of the forecast but the short term is defined by dry weather. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 PM Tuesday... Warm frontal precipitation from the maturing low pressure system arrives in earnest on Saturday that may start off as snow or a wintry mix early Saturday morning. Strengthening closed low off the coast forces this system to the south of us, keeping the area out of the stronger warm air advection, and more subject to the cooler airmass north of the warm front. This system will push to the south fairly quickly, replaced by high pressure and dry air returning once again for the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... 06Z Wednesday through 06Z Thursday... Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions in -ra and -sn, changing over to all snow after 09Z, with widespread IFR/LIFR conditions developing. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will linger for much of the day Wednesday in -RA and -SN, although gradual improvement to widespread MVFR/local IFR will take place after 20Z, as precipitation slowly starts to wind down, particularly across the north and west. Otherwise, gusty northwesterly winds will take hold after 16Z, with occasional gusts in the teen across the lowlands, and the lower to mid 20 kt range across the higher terrain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow and associated restrictions may vary from forecast. Winds may vary from forecast with the cyclonic flow around low pressure right over the area. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 03/21/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H M M L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L M M M L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M L L L L L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in precipitation and low ceilings into Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ032- 039-040-516-518-520>526. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>026-029. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ027-028-030-031-033-034-515-517-519. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066- 067-075-076-083>087. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.