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015
FXUS61 KRLX 050715
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
315 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times this
weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily
chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Saturday...

Refined PoPs a bit for the overnight hours, with activity being
generally more of the isolated nature going forward given loss
of diurnal heating. Locally heavy downpours do remain possible,
however. The trend continues to be for more clearing overnight
in spots, which in turn, will result in greater fog potential,
having already developed across portions of the far southern FA
per GOES satellite imagery. Given such, have significantly increased
fog coverage later tonight across much of the FA. The rest of
the forecast remains on track.

As of 750 PM Saturday...

Locally heavy rain across central/southern portions of the
forecast area has diminished over the last few hours, with
another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
moving slowly into the Mid-Ohio Valley at present in association
with another upper level wave. The best chance for rain
throughout the rest of the evening and overnight will be across
the central/northern portion of the CWA as the aforementioned
upper disturbance gradually slides north of the region. Locally
heavy rain remains possible in spots, potentially resulting in a
highly isolated water issue or two.

Have updated PoPs for tonight into Sunday, trending PoPs (in
general) a bit lower. Finally, did insert fog into the forecast
for some of the central/southern river valleys. Some clearing
appears possible later tonight. If so, some fog development is
likely given the moist lower atmosphere and light BL flow. For
the time being, trended conservative on fog coverage given
uncertainty in the amount of clearing that will occur. The rest
of the forecast remains on track.

As of 120 PM Saturday...

A moist southerly flow will combine with some upper level
disturbances and afternoon heating to provide showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Chances for
precipitation will lessen later tonight, but still can`t be
ruled out. A weak cold front then pushes into the area on
Sunday, providing more showers and thunderstorms.

While much of the area remains rather dry, if thunderstorms
train over an area or hit an area that previously had a
significant amount of precipitation, then isolated flash
flooding could occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * Unsettled weather opens up the work week after a brief
   reprieve late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

 * Temperatures gradually climb through the week, contributing
   to warm and muggy conditions that will help daily storm
   development.

After a brief lull in activity from late Sunday night into early
Monday morning, active weather returns in earnest for the start
of the new work week. Upper level ridging will be swept offshore
as a trough and associated shortwave energy encroach from the
west. This will usher in a surface southern stream disturbance
through the course of the day Monday, making it as far north as
the northern panhandle of West Virginia by the evening
timeframe. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the wake
of the end of weekend cold frontal passage, but dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s will ensure an unstable environment for
convection to prosper once more during peak heating hours on
Monday. As has been the case the past several days, additional
rainfall will continue to deplete flash flood guidance, and may
impose localized concerns pending radar trends.

Unsettled weather remains intact on Tuesday as a developing
system in the Upper Midwest latches onto the lingering southern
stream disturbance loitering about along what will become a warm
front. This will yield afternoon temperatures to climb back into
the 70s and 80s and maintain the humid airmass still parked
overhead. Shower and thunderstorm chances flourish once more
through the day Tuesday, with similar hazards to monitor of
local flash flooding and lightning within sprouting
thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * Daily chances for showers and storms remain present for the
   second half of the work week.

 * Strong to severe storms may be possible Wednesday and
   Thursday, along with the growing concern for flash flooding.

 * Cold front anticipated to sweep through by the end of the
   work week, but active weather remains even in its wake.

The daily chance for showers and storms shows no sign of giving
up during the extended portion of the forecast. This will be
under the guise of an upper level low over the Rockies
continuing to pump moisture and shortwave energy through the
heart of the country and into the Central Appalachians. A surface
warm front will impose a steady climb in high temperatures,
maxing out in the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday. Diurnally
driven convection prevails within this warm and humid
atmosphere, and could garner strong to severe characteristics by
midweek as instability becomes more established over the area.

Heading into Thursday, convection coverage will become more
prevalent as a cold front enters into the Ohio Valley. With warm
and humid conditions preceding the boundary, coupled with
increasing ascent as the front approaches, strong to severe
weather could be present once more Thursday afternoon into the
evening. However, models are still undecided on the placement of
the front during optimal peak heating hours. Hydro concerns
will also remain at the forefront of weather hazards as soil
conditions continue to be tested by day to day heavy downpours
from passing showers and storms. A grand total of over two
inches of rain could be feasible for the forecast area between
the time of writing (Sunday) and into next weekend.

The front is progged to sweep through sometime between Thursday
night and Friday, but the post-frontal environment will still
remain unstable in which active weather rolls into the weekend
as well. Temperatures will trend cooler in the wake of the
front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 150 AM Sunday...

Isolated showers and storms will continue making their way across
the area overnight. While VFR is currently present at most
locations, sub-VFR flight conditions will be possible in
storms. Low clouds and some areas of fog are also expected to
reduce VIS/CIGs early this morning; however, confidence in
extent of fog is low as development should be constrained to
locations where winds turn calm and enough clearing occurs.

While lower clouds may linger over the mountains through the
morning, VFR is generally expected for the lowland terminals
after 12Z. Chances for scattered showers/storms and associated
MVFR to IFR VIS restrictions persist throughout the day, with
the greatest activity likely to be during the afternoon and
evening hours.

5-12kt winds, with occasionally stronger gusts, continue along
the mountains while flow has become calm to light to the west.
During the day, 5-12kt flow is expected to swing from a
southerly direction to a west/southwest direction. Winds then
weaken and become variable after 00Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and intensity tonight could
vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are
possible throughout the TAF period in heavier showers or any
thunderstorms.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/05/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms
into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Sunday
night and Monday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...RPY/GW
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB