Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230745 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving storm system approaches through tonight with rain lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Monday... Well advertised upper level low pressure system will gradually approach the area today and tonight. Some bands of mainly light showers will advance into the area today from southwest to northeast. Given the dry low levels ahead of the initial band of showers and the stout LLJ in place, I expect some gusty winds to develop this morning and be maximized as the showers move overhead. Gusts 30 to 35 kts are not out of the question, especially across the mountains and adjacent western facing slopes. This band of showers will take some time to reach our northern counties and as a result, I have lowered dewpoints considerably for a time today and raised highs...thinking strong southeast downsloping flow will maximize heating and lower humidity. There probably will a lull in shower activity once this initial band moves through, before filling in tonight. Winds will continue to be an issue tonight across portions of the mountains and downsloping westward facing slopes. Model soundings indicate the LLJ strengthening this evening with near 50 kts pegged around 3kft. There is some question as to just how much of this is able to mix down. However, since this is not too far off the deck and given momentum transfer algorithm values...I`ve elected to hoist a wind advisory for those locations. I started it at 12Z today to capture the expected gust potential as the initial showers move in. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Monday... Models in fairly good agreement with a slow moving upper level low slowly drifting across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, providing some rain showers. By Wednesday night however, models begin to diverge with some models pulling the system away from the area and others dropping another upper low into the region. Forecast confidence drops considerably by Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 AM Monday... Model discrepancies continue Thursday into Saturday as models struggle with timing and placement of energy moving through the upper level trough. By Sunday however, models begin to agree as the trough pulls off to the east and a ridge begins building over the region. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 AM Monday. The threat for LLWS continues to exist at KCRW during the predawn hours as LLJ strengthens. This should quickly end by 12Z as mechanical mixing becomes the rule. Otherwise, ceilings will lower through the day as our next system approaches from the south. Light rain showers will advance north as the day progresses, though given the initial dry low levels and a strong southeast flow, no restrictions are expected. Winds will become gusty this morning as efficient mixing occurs ahead of the showers. Gusts 20 to 30 kts out of the southeast are expected for non mountain sites, with 30 to 40 kts possible at BKW/EKN as the showers arrive. A lull in the shower activity is expected this evening, though continued strong southeast low level flow will keep strong gusts at BKW. Ceilings will lower further there, down into MVFR by the end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/23/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in light to moderate rain. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ515>522. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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