Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240519 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 119 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure into Friday. Upper level short wave trough pulls tropical system north out of the Gulf, to produce unsettled weather this Memorial Day weekend and short work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 110 AM Thursday... A high pressure system will slide across the area today and tonight. This will generally provide dry weather, although soundings indicate that there might be enough low level moisture to pop an afternoon shower in southwestern VA. Due to dry air aloft and the mixing height tapping that dry air this afternoon, expect dewpoints to be on the lower side of guidance. This combined with good radiation conditions tonight, should allow temperatures toward the lower end of MOS guidance for overnight lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 220 PM Wednesday... High pressure will continue to move eastward Thursday night and Friday. As it does, it will allow moisture to return, mainly across the SW Coal Fields and ERN KY. The chances for afternoon showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder increase on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to move northward and eventually head our way. Whether it becomes tropical or not, moisture from this system will start move into our region starting this weekend and continue into next week. Each day chances increase for storms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. PWATs also increase as well, each day and the potential for heavy downpours are possible. The possibility for flash flooding will also increase each day as well. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 110 AM Thursday... Outside of some early morning valley fog and a slight chance of an afternoon shower in southwestern VA, expect VFR conditions today and tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog overnight, otherwise high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog early this morning could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/24/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L M H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...RPY

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