-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
305
FXUS61 KRLX 172254
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
654 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move northward through the area tonight and
Wednesday. Another cold front moves through Wednesday night into
Thursday, with upslope snow for Thursday night into early
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 505 PM Tuesday...

Clouds have clouds kept northern portions of the area from
heating up much today. In addition, light winds and mostly
clear skies can be expected for a good portion of the night.
Based on current dew points and MOS guidance, have lowered
overnight lows in this area and issued a freeze warning.


As of 235 PM Tuesday...

A warm front to our south will move northward through the area
overnight and into Wednesday. Clouds will generally clear from
south to north initially overnight. Some clouds will again
overspread the area associated with the warm front. Kept area
dry as moisture is lacking with the warm front, just expecting
some clouds. Temperatures overnight will be tricky with clouds
clearing at first south. Clouds north will take some time
clearing out and thus should keeps temperatures from falling too
much. WSW winds will stay up initially with the gradient
between the warm front and the exiting upper low, before
dropping off during the overnight. Uncertainty with the clouds
and winds, have decided not to go with any frost/freeze warning
tonight.

As the upper Mid West Low tracks into the great lakes tomorrow,
it`s trailing cold front will be approaching from the west.
Southerly flow out ahead of the cold front will push
temperatures into the 70s in the lowlands..with mainly upper 50s
and 60s elsewhere. Clouds increase as well as pops from west to
east during the afternoon tomorrow with the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...

A cold front from the West approaches Wednesday night with rain
showers. The front reaches the Ohio River by around midnight,
and is entirely passed the CWA by daybreak Thursday. This fast
moving system only manages to eke out 0.25" or so of rainfall
as it passes through the lowlands by mid- Thursday. After a lull
in precipitation, low- to mid-level winds will back toward the
NW in the CAA regime Thursday afternoon and turn the upslope
snow machine on in the mountains of West Virginia. Overall,
temperatures will be marginal to too-warm until sundown and
ground temperatures will greatly limit accumulations - however
abundant moisture and NW flow, plus the fact that snow will be
prevalent during the overnight hours, mean minor accumulations
are possible by Friday morning. Fairly strong winds are likely
with this quick-hitting system, with mountain gusts in the
mid-30`s knot range and lowlands in the 15-20 kt range. High
pressure builds from the northwest Friday and will gradually dry
the mountains up and clear skies through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday...

Gradual warming takes place under dry, weak high-pressure
conditions through the weekend and into the work-week. Lowland
highs near 60 (mtns near 50) on Saturday increase to near 70
(mtns near 60) by Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cut-off low
aloft and its associated surface low/rain showers lurk to our
South... however models agree today, unlike yesterday, that the
system will stay to the South, and thus have stuck with the
consensus- blend of low-PoPs until some slight-chance noses into
the SE Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 650 PM Tuesday...

A MVFR/VFR cloud deck over northern WV and central Ohio will
dissipate this evening.

A warm front will push northward across the area tonight into
Wednesday, producing MVFR/VFR clouds. Precipitation, if any,
with the front is not expected to cause restrictions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR restrictions could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday
     for WVZ007>011-016>020-027>031.
OH...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday
     for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MC
NEAR TERM...JS/RPY
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...RPY