Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161826 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 226 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances in a warm and humid air mass. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1115 AM Wednesday... No significant changes were necessary to the near term forecast period. Split flow pattern continues across the area, with high moisture content air in place, out ahead of an upper shortwave trough upstream of the area, with a stalled frontal boundary across the CWA. Satellite estimates of PW values around 1.5 inches along and south of boundary, which at 1530Z was stretched west to east, generally bisecting the CWA in half. This boundary may sag a little farther south during the period, but overall will remain relatively stationary. Multiple weak disturbances in the flow, will aid in shower and thunderstorm development at times, but overall timing of these individual disturbances remains difficult. Overall, light flow, surface and aloft, will result in slow moving showers and storms, with heavy downpours in the moisture laden atmosphere. Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected across the mountains, and northern WV zones during the period, with a general 1-1.5 inches east of a line from ckb to crw, with a general 0.75 inches of less to the west. A ffa will likely be issued later this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... An active upper level pattern will provide fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm chances through the short term. This is as an upper level low gradually moves into the lower Ohio River Valley Thursday and then slowly moves along just north of the Ohio River through Saturday, while a system lifts out of the gulf with plenty of moisture. With the upper level support, think showers and storms will become less diurnally driven with POPs remaining overnight as well. Will also see more clouds during the day, which means less instability and less concern for strong to severe storms. However, with more widespread rain and precipitable water values in the 1.5-2 inch range through the period flooding concerns are on the increase. Have the highest QPF across the mountains, and could see a need for a flood or flash flood watch eventually. I think a lot of it will depend on where and how much rain falls over the area today and tonight. Will reword HWO to jive with increasing concern. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thursday... Our synoptic pattern changes a bit for the weekend into next week. The upper level low of the short term departs on Saturday with a brief break before the next wave arrives Sunday night into Monday. The GFS actually tries to give us a relatively dry day Sunday, however the ECMWF keeps showers around. Have some low end POPs lingering Sunday, but think the ECMWF is overdoing it with slightly rising 500mb heights and no good upper level forcing. We will see a cold front try to push through Monday night into Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Wednesday... 18Z Wednesday through 18Z Thursday... Widespread MVFR conditions are starting to develop across the higher terrain, as heavier precipitation forms across that area. West of the higher terrain, mainly VFR conditions, although brief MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected at times across the lowlands as more widepsread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity develops this afternoon and evening. As with last night, expecting widespread MVFR and IFR conditions to develop in low stratus and fog, generally improving after 12-14Z, with more showers and thunderstorms developing after 16Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could vary thru the whole period. Timing, location, and density of fog/ceilings overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Friday evening for WVZ028-030>034-039-040-515>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...SL

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