-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
971
FXUS61 KRLX 300537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains through today keeping conditions mostly
dry. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 PM Monday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 720 PM Monday...

The forecast remains on track and no significant changes were
made at this time as quiet weather persists. Did however add
some more cloud coverage for tomorrow, especially during the
afternoon where some instability may get suppressed equating to
less thunderstorm coverage hopefully.

As of 145 PM Monday...

Dry conditions will continue for the most part tonight as a surface
high pressure slides east of the Appalachians. This will allow a
cold front to approach from the northwest early Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially
Tuesday afternoon and evening with the frontal passage and the
aid of diurnal heating, available moisture and some deep layered
shear. Thunderstorms are not expected to become severe at this
time.

However, tall skinny soundings with PWATs about 1.5 inches (2
standard deviation from climatology) suggests heavy downpours
will be possible on Tuesday. WPC has painted the entire area
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday.

The front briefly stalls across our north Tuesday evening,
before lifting north as a warm front.

Lows tonight will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, except mid
50s over the northeast mountains. Abundant cloudiness, increasing
winds, and cooling showers will keep afternoon temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 152 PM Monday...

High pressure, surface and aloft will provide hot, but mainly dry
conditions across the area on Thursday. By Friday, showers and
storms will be on the increase out ahead of an approaching front as
surface low lifts north into Canada. This front will be slowly move
into the area through Saturday, with a southern stream shortwave
moving through the area over the weekend, providing additional
rounds of showers and storms. This should also provide cooler
conditions over the weekend, as compared to the hot and humid
conditions expected Thursday into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1158 AM Monday...

High pressure, surface and aloft will provide hot, but mainly dry
conditions across the area on Thursday. By Friday, showers and
storms will be on the increase out ahead of an approaching front as
surface low lifts north into Canada. This front will be slowly move
into the area through Saturday, with a southern stream shortwave
moving through the area over the weekend, providing additional
rounds of showers and storms. This should also provide cooler
conditions over the weekend, as compared to the hot and humid
conditions expected Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

VFR through most of the morning (until ~13-15Z) with CIGs
gradually becoming more OVC from west to east. There remains the
chance for some fog at EKN, but not expecting much restrictions
as wind and cloud cover will likely interfere.

CIGs will start lowering by ~12Z as showers start approaching
our western periphery. CIGs look to remain mostly VFR through
the day, albeit low-end category, but some pockets of MVFR
will affect most sites especially in the afternoon. There does
remain the chance for some isolated thunderstorms from morning
through afternoon with heating so left VCTS in at most sites to
cover the possibility; more certainty remains in the afternoon
hours, especially for western most sites.

Will start to see showers and thunderstorms tapering off from
west to east by ~00Z, but chances will remain in the mountains
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. MVFR or IFR CIG restrictions
will likely remain across this area as well. Dense fog will be
a strong possibility at most sites Tuesday night into Wednesday
with recent rainfall across the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog at EKN manifests to be more dense than
forecasted. Shower and thunderstorm timing and location could
vary from forecast. Ceilings could be lower than forecasted.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 04/30/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible due to dense fog Wednesday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC