Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151943 CCA AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Charleston WV Issued by National Weather Service JACKSON KY 343 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather pattern continues through the week with daily thunderstorm chances in a warm and humid air mass. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/... As of 340 PM Tuesday... The latest surface map features a wavy cool front aligned from east to west across the Ohio Valley. Convection has been organizing along the boundary, with the most significant activity occurring towards New England. Aloft, an upper level low continues to spiral across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, advecting moisture into the region through the day. So far, convection has been isolated across the area; however, given the heating and weakening cap, expect coverage to increase through late this afternoon and early this evening, with isolated strong to severe storms possible. The latest HRRR has also been playing up clusters of convection moving in from central Ohio, affecting the Parkersburg area in the 5-6 pm time frame. Depending upon the evolution of the outflow associated with this activity, further convection may build downstream into the area, where some locations had seen heavier rainfall from yesterday. This would pose an isolated flash flooding threat, but there is not enough confidence for a watch, as the outflow looks to be fairly progressive as it moves through the area. Convection will diminish past midnight, with lows generally in the 60s, with low clouds and fog likely forming in the wake of the rainfall. Convection will fire up once again on Wednesday, as general troughiness takes hold across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Will continue with likely POPs for most locations. Highs will be cooler, generally upper 70s to lower 80s. Again, an isolated flash flooding threat will be possible, with less of a threat of severe, given the weaker shear and instability in place. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM Tuesday... Active pattern continues through the short term. We also continue to find ourselves between a frontal boundary that will drop into the area from the north tonight before stalling, and a tropical system to our south. Moisture will continue to stream northward into the southern Appalachians with the surface frontal zone providing a focus for fairly widespread but mainly afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity. Sensible weather should remain unsettled and while not hot, muggy and warm with a small diurnal trend. Afternoon highs Thursday will climb into the 70s to near 80 and overnight lows in general will fall into the mid 60s though some of the typically cooler valleys may get closer to 60. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 PM Tuesday... Tropical wave or low in the deep south finally gets picked up by the westerlies and lifts northward into New England by Sunday. That leaves us under the sole influence of northern stream disturbances through the remainder of the forecast. Synoptically, disturbances will continue to track across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley but a more westerly flow aloft may allow for a bit more sunshine and warmer temps between disturbances...and then the occasional threat of showers and thunderstorms with each disturbance. Again, temperatures remain above normal. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will initiate and increase in areal coverage from southeast to northwest through late this afternoon. Additional and perhaps more organized convection will move in from central Ohio closer to 00z. This activity will affect TAF sites through 02 to 03z...bringing periods of MVFR conditions at times. Showers and thunderstorms look to diminish in coverage and intensity into the overnight hours, although some uptick in coverage may be possible along a line from KCKB to KPKB between 06 and 12z, depending upon thunderstorm organization upstream into Ohio at that time. Elsewhere, ceilings and visibilities will lower between 06 and 12z, likely reaching MVFR west of a line from KCKB to KBKW, with IFR possible at KEKN between 09 and 12z. Ceilings will gradually raise up through the day on Wednesday, with additional convection likely firing towards the end of the period. Winds will average less than 10 kts for most locations through Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection timing Tuesday may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 EDT 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...There will be periods of MVFR or worse conditions due to bouts of showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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