-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191645
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1245 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper system crosses today. Weak disturbances cross early next
week. Cold front crosses mid week, followed by high pressure to
end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1245 PM Saturday...

Upper trough will swing through the CWA this evening, with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as it does so.
Still overall expecting a low chance for anything to become
severe, with overall lack of significant wind shear and strong
dynamics, but will continue to highlight the potential in the
HWO with SPC placing much of the CWA in a marginal risk for
today. There are some breaks in the clouds noted on satellite,
which of course will aid in thunderstorm development. Any
storms that do develop will be capable of brief heavy downpours,
with the anomalously high PW air mass in place. However, storms
should overall move well, so widespread flooding risk is not
expected, but could see issues in low lying spots/poor drainage
areas.

Trough pushes to the east of the CWA late tonight. Much of the
area will start out quite cloudy on Sunday, particularly across
northern/eastern zones where low stratus is expected to develop.
Some clearing possible towards morning across extreme western
zones. Otherwise, weather on Sunday looks to be drier, with a
more stable pattern setting up, but can`t completely rule out a
pop up shower or storm, so maintained the slight chance during
the afternoon hours. Models hinting at the possibility of
increasingly unsettled weather late Sunday night, into the short
term period.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Some low level dry air will attempt to inhibit precipitation on
Sunday, providing a lull in the action.

Moisture returns to the area on Monday, providing a good chance
for showers and thunderstorms. The moisture will remain through
at least Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Models diverge a bit for mid week with the timing of a cold
front pushing through the region, with the Canadian actually
waiting until Thursday. With such a wide spread in guidance,
confidence for mid week is fairly low. By Thursday night, models
all have the front south of the region, providing dry weather
and an increase in confidence for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 625 AM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage midday
onward as an upper level trof crosses. PROB30 IFR groups were
inserted at this distance based on the most probably times to
affect the various terminals late this afternoon and early
evening. Winds will become gusty out of the southwest today, on
the order of 15 to 20 kts.

The upper level trof pushes east tonight, taking most of the
showers and storms with it. However, a weak front will cross
overnight with some light showers possible at CKB/EKN. Boundary
layer flow and lingering low level moisture will result in an
increase in low stratus at CKB/EKN/BKW late tonight, possibly
affecting KCRW as well.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of convection this
afternoon may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the
weekend and again for the beginning of the work week.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30