Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191645 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1245 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper system crosses today. Weak disturbances cross early next week. Cold front crosses mid week, followed by high pressure to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1245 PM Saturday... Upper trough will swing through the CWA this evening, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as it does so. Still overall expecting a low chance for anything to become severe, with overall lack of significant wind shear and strong dynamics, but will continue to highlight the potential in the HWO with SPC placing much of the CWA in a marginal risk for today. There are some breaks in the clouds noted on satellite, which of course will aid in thunderstorm development. Any storms that do develop will be capable of brief heavy downpours, with the anomalously high PW air mass in place. However, storms should overall move well, so widespread flooding risk is not expected, but could see issues in low lying spots/poor drainage areas. Trough pushes to the east of the CWA late tonight. Much of the area will start out quite cloudy on Sunday, particularly across northern/eastern zones where low stratus is expected to develop. Some clearing possible towards morning across extreme western zones. Otherwise, weather on Sunday looks to be drier, with a more stable pattern setting up, but can`t completely rule out a pop up shower or storm, so maintained the slight chance during the afternoon hours. Models hinting at the possibility of increasingly unsettled weather late Sunday night, into the short term period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Some low level dry air will attempt to inhibit precipitation on Sunday, providing a lull in the action. Moisture returns to the area on Monday, providing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. The moisture will remain through at least Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Models diverge a bit for mid week with the timing of a cold front pushing through the region, with the Canadian actually waiting until Thursday. With such a wide spread in guidance, confidence for mid week is fairly low. By Thursday night, models all have the front south of the region, providing dry weather and an increase in confidence for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 625 AM Saturday... Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage midday onward as an upper level trof crosses. PROB30 IFR groups were inserted at this distance based on the most probably times to affect the various terminals late this afternoon and early evening. Winds will become gusty out of the southwest today, on the order of 15 to 20 kts. The upper level trof pushes east tonight, taking most of the showers and storms with it. However, a weak front will cross overnight with some light showers possible at CKB/EKN. Boundary layer flow and lingering low level moisture will result in an increase in low stratus at CKB/EKN/BKW late tonight, possibly affecting KCRW as well. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of convection this afternoon may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the weekend and again for the beginning of the work week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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