-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
568
FXUS61 KRNK 290601
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
201 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A ridge of high pressure will allow for dry conditions through
Monday, then a low pressure system will then push a cold front
through the region on Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal through the
middle of the week. Some shower and thunderstorm potential
exists for parts of the area mainly Wednesday, and Friday into
the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Abnormally warm temps to continue.

With an upper level ridge, mostly sunny skies, and 85H
temperature 14C-16C helped surface temperatures warm into the
low to mid 80s along and north of Highway 460 today. More clouds
were noted south, which kept temperatures in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Similar weather pattern Monday, but a few degrees
warmer at 85H, which will translate to surface temperatures
being 2F-4F warmer. Normal high temperatures for this time of
year range run from the upper 60s across the mountains to mid
70s in the foothills and piedmont.

Forecast confidence is high.

Climate Records Summary

Monday 04/29/2024
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    86 2017    30 1946     42 2008     66 2017
KDAN    91 1981    35 2010     49 1999     68 2017
KLYH    88 1974    31 1976     50 1999     66 1956
KROA    89 1915    32 1944     49 1968     67 2017
KRNK    86 2017    25 1967     45 1988     59 2021

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.
2. Scattered showers and storms Tuesday.

Mid level ridging holds over the southeastern coast Monday into
Tuesday, with a surface high sitting offshore of the Carolinas, will
start off the work week. A shortwave trough and associated surface
frontal system will track across the area through Tuesday.
Southwesterly flow around the surface high and ahead of the cold
front will bring warmer and more moist air into the area to sustain
warmer than normal temperatures for Tuesday, albeit a few degrees
cooler than Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
along the cold front Tuesday afternoon and into the evening, with
the highest probabilities for convection along and west of the Blue
Ridge, as the front reaches the western counties in the forecast
area near the peak heating of the day. Low level shear is forecast
to be between 25 to 35 knots across the area, as some deterministic
models have the cold front weakening as it approaches and then
crosses the area. That being said, not expecting widespread coverage
of showers and storms.

Following the frontal passage, surface high pressure returns to the
area, and mid level ridging builds back in, continuing the above
normal temperatures for the middle of the work week. As the 500mb
shortwave moves offshore Wednesday, could see some lingering showers
in the east, but Wednesday should be dry and warm for most.

Overnight lows will be on the mild side, mainly in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures continue through the week.
2. Daily chances of showers and storms, greatest coverage Saturday.

Surface high pressure over the northeast US will slide offshore
during the second half of the work week, and winds will turn
easterly then southeasterly Thursday into Friday. The 500mb trough
will have moved off the Mid Atlantic Coast by late in the week.
Thus, may see some isolated showers in the eastern most counties of
the forecast area Thursday afternoon, although confidence in this
low, as high pressure should suppress most of the precipitation. By
the end of the week and into the weekend, another 500mb trough will
dig southward into the central Plains region. A stronger cold front
approaches the area Friday and into the weekend as the associated
surface low deepens and tracks into the Great Lakes region. As the
previous forecast discussed, the timing of this front has slowed in
recent model runs, resulting in the better coverage of showers and
storms Friday night and through Saturday, but uncertainty still
remains in the timing of this front. Surface high pressure pushes
back into the area from the west for Sunday following the frontal
passage.

High temperatures through the period will be in the upper 70s
to mid to upper 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 155 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions expected for most sites through the period.

Already noting fog was forming along the New River as seen in
the Night Fog satellite images. Fog may also develop after 08Z
along the Greenbrier River. The most likely time frame for
MVFR to potentially IFR fog at KLWB and KBCB is from 08Z/4AM to
13Z/9AM.

Few-sct diurnal stratocumulus will develop by early afternoon
with bases 3-5 kft.

Expecting a southwest wind once the inversion breaks this
morning. A few gusts up to 20 knots are possible this afternoon,
but occurrence will be limited.


Above average confidence for ceiling and wind.
Average confidence for visibility today and tonight and the
extent of fog this morning.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

NW winds arrive behind a cold front crossing the area Tuesday
with TSRA and MVFR or lower ceilings. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA
will be possible again on Wednesday as the front exits the
area.

Thursday is forecast to be VFR and dry.

The next cold front and probability of precipitation arrive in
the area on Friday. This brings the potential for showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AB/RCS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AMS/RCS