-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191336
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
936 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Virginia will move offshore and up the
northeast coast today with a cold front advancing from Virginia
to Florida by this evening. A large high builds in behind this
system and will cover the eastern United States Friday and
Saturday. A low pressure system over the Southern Plains
Saturday will move east, reaching Georgia by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 935 AM EDT Thursday...

Upstream radars show precipitation associated with short wave
energy rotating around the base of the upper trof heading in our
direction, and this is captured well in POP grids.

Winds this morning are underperforming a bit compared to
conditions advertised in yesterdays guidance. 06Z NAM low level
winds seem to match 12Z RNK sounding best and Bufkit indicates
that once better diurnal mixing kicks in it will still be a
blustery day. No changes planned for current wind advisory but
it looks like it will be closer to the low end of criteria. As
winds pick up and drier air moves in, ground fuels will dry and
create enhanced fire danger east of the Blue Ridge through
early this evening.

Previous discussion...

Combination of pressure rises, low level jet and cold air
advection will be enough for gusts of 40 to 50 mph at the
highest elevations. Have lowered minimum temperatures a couple
of degrees for tonight which brings lows to near freezing north
of Lynchburg. Will introduce Freeze Watch for tonight from
Appomattox County to Rockbridge County. Winds lighten but
questionable if they get light enough to allow for frost across
southern Virginia and northern North Carolina, given that the
center of the high will be over the western Great Lakes.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure will rule the roost into the weekend with no rain
expected until early next week. Cloud cover will increase each day,
as well as afternoon temperatures. Friday`s highs will range from
the 50s west of the Blue Ridge to the low to mid 60s east.
Widespread 60 degree temperatures are expected Saturday with the
exception of higher ridges being in the mid 50s. More 60 degree
temperatures on tap Sunday with the piedmont flirting with the lower
70s. Temperatures Sunday are close to normal highs for this time of
year.

Temperatures Friday night going into Saturday morning will range in
the low to mid 30s. Low level moisture will be scarce, but some
patchy frost is possible. Sensitive vegetation should be protected.
Temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning will be mild with
temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 30s west and lower 40s
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Going to be wet/cool but not cold period, as upper low develops over
the lower MS Valley Sunday and pushes across the northern tier of
the Gulf Coast states Sunday afternoon into Tuesday. Models have
trended north, but would like to see more consistency in them, as a
further south track would lead to dry/cool with more sun while north
would be wetter/cloudier but still a bit on the cool side.

For consensus, models are showing more of cloudy pattern with threat
of rain each day. As the low moves off the coast Wednesday, a
northern stream front shift in from the northwest with another
threat of showers.

Sunday appears the drier of this period with increasing clouds.
Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s mountains, with mid
to upper 60s in the piedmont/foothills, which is about 5 degrees
below normal.

Lows will be close to normal during the week with mid 30s to lower
40s west, to lower to mid 40s east.

Highs Monday-Tuesday will be around 10 degrees below normal, ranging
from the lower to mid 50s west, to upper 50s to lower 60s east.

May be a little warmer Wednesday ahead of next front with upper 50s
to lower 60s mountains, to mid to upper 60s east.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Thursday...

Low pressure was over northern Virginia with a strong cold front
trailing into central Tennessee. Winds were out of the southwest
ahead of the front with gusts up to 25 knots in the mountains.
Winds become west to northwest behind the front with gusts of 25
to 35 knots. The highest elevations will approach gusts of 50
knots today. Winds will begin to diminish after sunset with
gusts lowering to less than 25 knots.

Radar showed showers along and behind the front. As cold air
comes into the region the rain will change to snow showers on
the higher elevations of the Appalachians. Expect areal extent
of snow to be limited with no impact at KBLF and KLWB. Ceilings
will lower to MVFR behind the front for much of the morning.
Medium confidence on the timing of improvement back to VFR.
Conditions will remain VFR forecast east of the Blue Ridge.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

VFR Friday and Saturday as high pressure slowly builds in from
the northwest. Winds will continue to diminish into Saturday.

Clouds will begin to creep back into the area on Sunday in
advance of an approaching low in the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. However, cigs should remain VFR even while the ceiling
heights lower and clouds thicken. SCT MVFR showers are possible
in southern Virginia and northern North Carolina Sunday night
with rain becoming more widespread across the Mid Atlantic
region on Monday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     VAZ024-035-046-047.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for WVZ042>044-507-508.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK