-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
434
FXUS61 KRNK 241928
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
328 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate the area for the next
several days as the large upper level ridge starts to finally
break down starting Wednesday. As the upper level ridge starts
to show some cracks on Wednesday, widespread subsidence will
finally lower allowing some more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected through the end of the week as
a back door front pushes in from the northeast, and becomes
stationary across the Mason Dixon line.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Upper level ridging that has been centered over the area the
last two days is expected to slightly break down as an upper
level low pushes west into Florida and Georgia. This effectively
creates a mid and level convergence zone across the VA/NC state
line by Wednesday afternoon. Across the surface, high pressure
is expected to settle into south eastern Canada which looks to
create a back-door front across Pennsylvania that will progress
a surface convergence boundary south across the area during the
afternoon hours. Both of these forcings for ascent will aid in
triggering thunderstorms across the area tomorrow, with
scattered to widespread coverage expected. Given that
temperatures will again surge into the mid to upper 90s east of
the Blue Ridge, and surface dewpoints will continue to maintain
values in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Blue Ridge, the
SBCAPE values will surge into the 2000-2500 J/KG range. This
combined with DCAPE values in the 1500 J/KG range will lead to
practically any downburst from thunderstorms having strong to
severe winds, with storm motions likely dominated by outflow
boundaries from previous dying storms.

Thunderstorm coverage, and mid day cloud coverage may keep
temperatures from reaching extreme heat criteria; however,
Advisory level heat is likely again, and a new Heat Advisory
will be issued with this evening`s forecast package for a
portion of the area east of the Blue Ridge for Wednesday, with
heat index values in the 105-110 degree range again. Overall
high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s east of
the Blue Ridge, and upper 80s to low 90s west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for hot and humid weather to continue through
the end of this work week.

2) The chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will steadily
rise each day.

High pressure aloft starts to weaken through this period but
heat/humidity remain but not quite as hot as it has been. Storms
will be scattered Wed evening then abate overnight. A backdoor
front will be situated over northern VA Thursday. Will be
relying on some outflow and differential heating for storms
Thursday, so may be less coverage than currently forecast.

Meanwhile, moisture will advect north and then east around the
broad southeastern U.S. ridge interacting with a frontal
boundary. At the moment our area will still be closer to the
ridge aloft but with weakening of the ridge, storms may become
more common and widespread, but again not seeing everyone
getting rain. Those that do will likely have heavy rain given
this higher moisture content in the airmass. At the moment,
indications are that the mountains into the I-64 corridor will
have better coverage than the Piedmont of NC and southside VA
Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for temperatures to remain above normal.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon.

Additional rounds of scattered thunderstorms are possible
across much of the area into the weekend and early next week,
and will be a typical summer pattern for us.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected for much of the TAF period for all
terminals. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms today may
impact ROA, BCB, and DAN; however, restrictions that may be
seen should remain brief. River valley fog is again expected to
develop at LWB during the early morning hours, with roughly 3-6
hours of MVFR to LIFR restrictions forecast during the early
morning hours from 09-12 UTC. More widespread thunderstorms are
expected on Wednesday; however, most activity looks to develop
after the 18 UTC timeframe, and have not been included in the
TAFs just yet. Winds should remain light and variable out of the
west/northwest throughout the TAF period.

As always, thunderstorms bring the chance for erratic wind
directions/speeds, and bring the chance for brief MVFR to LIFR
restrictions if they move in the vicinity of any terminal.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions through most of the
week. As a moisture increases areawide, and a backdoor front
pushes into the area from the northeast, the chances of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will steadily
increase through the end of the work week. Aside from these
localized sub-VFR weather phenomena,the only other sub-VFR
condition to watch for is the late night and early morning river
valley fog which may impact LWB and BCB.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for today (Tuesday)...

Roanoke   103 in 1930
Lynchburg  98 in 1914
Danville  102 in 1988
Blacksburg 96 in 1930
Bluefield  92 in 1930

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ022>024-032-
     033-043.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ034-
     035-044>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ003>005-019-
     020.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...RCS/WP
LONG TERM...RCS/WP
AVIATION...EB
CLIMATE...PM