Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 190556 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 156 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move through the middle Atlantic region and push a cold front through the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region. This will bring very windy conditions, along with much colder temperatures, along with some showers west of the Blue Ridge and even some west snow for the higher elevations. High pressure then builds in with fair conditions and slightly warmer temperatures into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 944 PM EDT Wednesday... Modified temperatures this evening into tonight utilizing the latest surface obs, their trends and shaped towards GLAMP. Made some minor changes in pops and weather blending in the HRRR. Timing of showers by 06z in the west, stills looks reasonable. However, convection will weaken as it moves towards our forecast area. Wind advisory on track for overnight into Thursday along and west of the BLue Ridge. Post frontal winds will be gusty supported by strong cold advection. As of 744 PM EDT WEdnesday... Wind advisory for post frontal winds from the Blue Ridge westward looks good. Made some minor adjustments in temperatures for this evening into tonight. Convection along the cold front appears limited this evening. However, HRRR and Highres models still support current pops in the west. The best chances are along the far west mountains with upslope enhancement late tonight into Thursday. As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday... Low pressure will move through the middle Atlantic region and push a cold front through the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region. This will bring an abrupt end to our one day of spring as much colder air moves in on strong gusty northwest winds. Expect rain showers with the front west of the Blue Ridge to transition to upslope rain/snow showers on Thursday with some minor snow accumulation for the higher elevations. The upslope precipitation will be decreasing during Thursday afternoon. The winds behind the front will become quite strong as cold air advection creates efficient downward momentum transfer with gusts around 50MPH at the higher elevations from the Blue Ridge westward starting around Midnight and continuing through tomorrow. Gusts will not be quite as strong east of the Ridge and will generally wait for the arrival of netter mixing with diurnal heating by mid/late morning. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Models agree on continuation of stronger winds at least until midnight Thursday night, especially along the Blue Ridge as 45 kt jet shifts toward the southern Shenandoah Valley. Expect some linger flurries in western Greenbrier, then dry, sunny and cool Friday. May have some freeze issues late Thursday night but no frost as RH only recovers to 60-65 percent and winds will be blowing. Highs Friday will be in the 50s in the mountains, with even some 40s in the higher ridges of the Alleghanys, to lower to mid 60s across the foothills/piedmont. May have more of a freeze/frost issue late Friday night, especially in the southern Shenandoah Valley as winds drop off and temps drop to near freezing. No headlines at this point. Saturday, the surface high continues to build in from the Great Lakes providing sunshine and warmer highs in the 60s. Clouds increase ahead of the upper system moves into the lower MS valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday... Going to be wet/cool but not cold period, as upper low develops over the lower MS Valley Sunday and pushes across the northern tier of the Gulf Coast states Sunday afternoon into Tuesday. Models have trended north, but would like to see more consistency in them, as a further south track would lead to dry/cool with more sun while north would be wetter/cloudier but still a bit on the cool side. For consensus, models are showing more of cloudy pattern with threat of rain each day. As the low moves off the coast Wednesday, a northern stream front shift in from the northwest with another threat of showers. Sunday appears the drier of this period with increasing clouds. Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s mountains, with mid to upper 60s in the piedmont/foothills, which is about 5 degrees below normal. Lows will be close to normal during the week with mid 30s to lower 40s west, to lower to mid 40s east. Highs Monday-Tuesday will be around 10 degrees below normal, ranging from the lower to mid 50s west, to upper 50s to lower 60s east. May be a little warmer Wednesday ahead of next front with upper 50s to lower 60s mountains, to mid to upper 60s east. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 150 AM EDT Thursday... Low pressure was over northern Virginia with a strong cold front trailing into central Tennessee. Winds were out of the southwest ahead of the front with gusts up to 25 knots in the mountains. Winds become west to northwest behind the front with gusts of 25 to 35 knots. The highest elevations will approach gusts of 50 knots today. Winds will begin to diminish after sunset with gusts lowering to less than 25 knots. Radar showed showers along and behind the front. As cold air comes into the region the rain will change to snow showers on the higher elevations of the Appalachians. Expect areal extent of snow to be limited with no impact at KBLF and KLWB. Ceilings will lower to MVFR behind the front for much of the morning. Medium confidence on the timing of improvement back to VFR. Conditions will remain VFR forecast east of the Blue Ridge. Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR Friday and Saturday as high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest. Winds will continue to diminish into Saturday. Clouds will begin to creep back into the area on Sunday in advance of an approaching low in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, cigs should remain VFR even while the ceiling heights lower and clouds thicken. SCT MVFR showers are possible in southern Virginia and northern North Carolina Sunday night with rain becoming more widespread across the Mid Atlantic region on Monday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024. NC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for NCZ001-002-018. WV...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...KK/MBS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/KK

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