Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 202351 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 751 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A southerly flow will continue to push warm and humid air into our region today and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and become more numerous for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Saturday... Southerly flow continues to bring warm, moist and unstable air into the region. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will continue to spring up this afternoon into the evening before shutting down after sunset. Storms will develop mainly in the mountains but will have a generally easterly motion which should carry them out to the lower lying areas. Latest short range guidance suggests that any lingering storms should begin dissipating around midnight. The main threat from any of these showers and storms again will be any heavy downpours or potential training, leading to water issues with our already very saturated ground. Humid conditions will likely lead to patchy fog again tonight, which could become fairly dense in areas that receive rain today. Conditions on Monday look to be much like Sunday, continuing with the warm and humid pattern due to tropical ridging still firmly in place. A front will be approaching the area from the Ohio Valley and will trigger a more widespread convective event. SPC day 2 outlook currently has the region outlooked for general thunder with a marginal risk just to the west. That being said, again the main threat would be hydrological, but with modest instabilities, can not rule out that a cell or two could become strong to severe. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... A blocking ridge centered over Bermuda stretches westward to cover portions of the southeast and Mid Atlantic states Monday night and Tuesday. This ridge is expected to sink south by Wednesday, losing its influence on the region. A weak front should move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Over the Gulf states north into the Tennessee Valley, a weak upper level trough will continue to draw Gulf and Atlantic moisture northward into the area Wednesday. Similar to last week, tropical moisture interacting with a frontal boundary will bring numerous slow moving showers with heavy downpours Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Since the ground will remain wet and creeks, streams and rivers are elevated, there is a chance for renewed flooding by the middle of the week. Unlike last week, the threat for heavy rain will only be a day or two rather than a whole week, as the front is forecast to move into the Carolinas Wednesday night. Temperature will continue to run warmer than normal until the front moves south of the area Wednesday night. Highs Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 70s across the mountains to the lower 80s east. Wednesday`s temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Sunday... Following a frontal passage Wednesday night, high pressure will wedge south on Thursday. This wedge of high pressure should keep most of the area dry through Friday night. With a cool easterly wind, near uniform temperatures are expected Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. An upper level ridge over the southeast states will expand northward on Friday. This ridge will bring warmer temperatures into the region for the weekend. The chance for thunderstorms return to the area on Saturday as a cold front approaches the region. The better chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and Monday as the front slowly crosses the area. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Sunday... Isolated thunderstorms this evening in southeast West Virginia, southwest Virginia and northern North Carolina. Conditions were VFR aside from the thunderstorms. The slow moving thunderstorms were producing heavy rain and MVFR visibility along with some wind gusts of up to 40 knots. Thunderstorms will dissipate by midnight. Expect MVFR fog to develop overnight where there was rain this afternoon. Only medium confidence of any fog at area TAF sites. Surface dew points were in the lower 70s in extreme southern Virginia and northern North Carolina so this may be the most likely location for fog development, including at KDAN. Cold front from New Jersey to Illinois will move south into the region on Monday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected in the afternoon. Lower confidence as to what exact time will be most likely impact on local airports. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday with another round likely Wednesday. Conditions are expected to improve later in the week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JR NEAR TERM...JR SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AL/RCS AVIATION...AMS/JR

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