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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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639
FXUS63 KSGF 151616
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1116 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Weak short wave energy will drift southeast across southern Iowa
and northern Missouri today. Shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with this wave will remain north of I-70. At the
surface, a ridge axis will continue to slide south across
southeastern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

We are looking for a dry and mostly sunny day across the Missouri
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas with southwest surface winds
prevailing to the north of that ridge axis. Temperatures look
very warm with 850 mb temperatures in the 19-20 Celsius range.
This should result in afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower
90s.

The dry weather will then continue into tonight with lows once
again falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s over most areas. We
may still see some middle 60s in the cooler valleys across the
eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Upper level high pressure will remain in control of the weather
through midweek. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will
persist with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s continuing into
Wednesday.

Global models are then pretty consistent in bringing a fairly deep
trough into the western U.S. by Thursday with this energy slowly
lifting northeast across the northern and central Plains next
weekend. Slight chances for thunderstorms may return to end the
work week, however better chances may arrive next weekend with
the eventual arrival of a cold front.

Temperatures will remain well above normal for the entire work
week with a return to near normal values once that front arrives
sometime next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR with sfc high pressure near or just south
of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA

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