Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180822
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
222 AM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

Next main upper level system was located over New Mexico early
this morning. Surface ridge was situated oer the Ohio valley and
extended westward into the middle and lower Mississippi valley
region. Temperatures across the area were generally in the mid to
upper 30s with dew points from the mid 20s to around 30. There is
some high cloud cover over the region ahead of the next system.

The main forecast focus in the short term will be with
precipitation chances and rain amounts on Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Dec 18 2018


For today, moisture progs are suggesting some mid/upper level
clouds today in advance of the next storm system. The upper level
low will shift east into west Texas by the end of the day and low
level warm advection will set up over the region. Temperatures
will rise into the mid to upper 50s again this afternoon despite
some filtered sunshine. Clouds will continue to increase tonight
ahead of the upper low which will track into southwest Oklahoma by
12z Wed. Precipitation should remain out of the area until
Wednesday. The cloud cover and low levle warm advection will keep
temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s overnight.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

The closed low will begin to become more of an open wave on
Wednesday with a later onset for precipitation now expected,
mainly starting during the afternoon. Temperatures in the mid 50s
are once again probable, although the main instability will remain
south of the forecast area and we have kept thunder out of the
forecast for now. The better chance for rain will arrive Wednesday
night into Thursday. The main trough will begin to swing southeast
into the area and another low is expected to begin closing off
south of the forecast area. Better qpf totals will remain to our
south, where some convection will be possible with some
instability and better forcing, however we are still expecting
around a quarter to three tenths of an inch of rain over south
central Missouri and lesser amounts to the northwest.

The main area of precipitation will shift east of the area late
Thursday night, most likely prior to the temperatures turning cold
enough for any light snow with this system.

The remainder of the week into the weekend should be dry with
temperatures in the 40s and 50s for highs and in the upper 20s to
mid 30s for lows.

Model differences exist with respect to temperatures and
precipitation chances late Christmas eve into Christmas day. Will
carry some low end rain chances at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Dec 17 2018

Some high cloud cover will move across the region through Tuesday
but aviators can expect VFR flight conditions. Surface winds will
be light and southerly.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch



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