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000
FXUS63 KSGF 221750
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1150 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Friday)

We have an interesting set up this morning as water vapor was
showing a vigorous speed max approaching the Ozarks. Snow and
sleet developed ahead of this feature, and was tracking east
toward the Missouri border.

Our 00z RAOB last night indicated an incredibly dry airmass, with
only 0.10 inches measured in precipitable water. The sharp
reflectivity gradient observed on radar along the leading edge of
the approaching snow and sleet is likely there due to the dry air
that the upper forcing is battling.

The HRRR and HREF QPF analysis indicates a weakening of snow and
sleet as it shifts into southwest Missouri this morning. We also
need to keep in mind that temperatures in the lower trop will warm
a few degrees throughout the morning hours.

Between the dry air in place along with the expected warming
within the lowest 150 mb, snow or sleet accumulations will be
difficult to come by.

As a matter of fact, the Tulsa office had only measured 0.2 inches
of slushy snow at 3am this morning. They also mentioned that snow
had already changed over to sleet, suggesting that the warm nose
had came in earlier and stronger than what ANY model was
indicating.

Therefore there are multiple negatives that are playing against
impacts from frozen precipitation this morning and this
afternoon, including a full changeover to rain by mid day.

As temperatures cool tonight, precipitation could potentially
change back over to a wintry mix, especially east of Highway 65.
At this time we are not expected accumulations to be much more
than a dusting of sleet and snow, or just a glaze of ice,
depending on the precipitation type at any given location.

This wintry mix will continue through early morning Thursday,
before changing back over to mainly rain during the Thursday day
time hours. Highs on Thursday are expected to range from the
middle 30s to low 40s. Therefore any light accumulations that
occurred overnight will likely melt.

By Thursday night, lingering precip could briefly change back over
to a wintry mix. Again, amounts are expected to remain light. All
precipitation should exit the region Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)

Seasonable conditions are expected on Saturday with highs in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Cloud cover could hang on through most of
the day in some locations, although other locations across the
Ozarks could clear out and see some sun.

Skies should completely clear by Sunday which will lead to warm
temperatures. Look for highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s Sunday
afternoon. The warming trend will continue into next work week,
with highs in the 50s on an afternoon basis Monday through
Wednesday.

An upper ridge of high pressure will shift across the area Monday
and Tuesday, however, another strong storm system will approach by
Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring another round of
precipitation. We will have a better idea of what type of
precipitation once we get a little closer to next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

The main forecasting concerns for this period will be low-level
winds and the likelihood of icing.

The surface pressure gradient remains tightened over southwest
Missouri early this afternoon in response to a 40-50 kt low-
level jet nosing in from the south. This has produced a southerly sustained
surface wind between 15-20 kts with occasional gusts to 30 kts.
The expectation is for surface winds to diminish by this evening
as the center of a broad low-pressure system moves closer to the
region.

Precipitation type will generally remain rain across the
SGF/JLN/BBG terminals until about 12z Thursday, at which time, a
transition to a wintry mix will become likely. Rain will blossom
in coverage and become more moderate in intensity by 00z this
evening with flight conditions deteriorating to IFR/LIFR between
then and 12z Thursday. Poor flight conditions are likely to
persist beyond 18z Thursday as colder air surges in from the
north and turns all precipitation to light snow.

Note: terminals east of SGF and BBG may experience a wintry mix
tonight as low-level temperatures remain cold enough across
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Such locations my
experience reduced visibility and icy pavements.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MOZ056>058-
     069>071-080>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ066-067-077-
     078-088-089-093-094-101-102.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MOZ055-068-
     079.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Albano