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000
FXUS66 KSGX 021950
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1250 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the southeast will bring a warming trend into
Sunday with Sunday high temperatures around 4 to 7 degrees above
average. This will be followed by a slow cooling trend for Monday
through Wednesday with Wednesday high temperatures a few to
degrees below normal. The marine layer will become shallower with
night and morning coastal low clouds and fog not spreading much
farther inland than coastal areas for Sunday and Monday mornings.
The low clouds will spread back into portions of the valleys by
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The marine layer low clouds have cleared nicely aside from a few
small patches along the leading edge of the sea breeze in the OC.
Elsewhere skies remain crystal clear. Winds are gusting around 25
mph through the passes as usual.

An upper level high currently over northern Mexico will slowly
expand northwest towards Southern California into the weekend,
bringing gradual warming and highs returning to near normal by
Saturday. The marine layer will finally become more shallow, with
less inland extent of coastal low clouds each night. There is a
chance that the beaches could be at least partly cloudy through
the day on the Fourth of July, especially in San Diego County.

The center of the high shifts west and over So Cal for Sunday and
Monday, bringing greater warming with highs 4 to 7 degrees above
normal. Highs in the Inland Empire and high desert will be in the
mid to upper 90s, with highs in excess of 110 in the low deserts
these days. The marine layer will be shallow enough for patchy
dense fog over the coastal mesas and higher coastal terrain on
Sunday, and at the beaches Sunday night into Monday, though clouds
may be fairly patchy by then.

Slow cooling takes place Tuesday through Thursday with highs near
seasonal averages. More expansive and stronger high pressure may
develop late next week over the central and southern Rockies into
the southwestern states. This would bring a warming trend late
next week into next weekend. Monsoon moisture will remain well to
the southeast through Friday. The majority of EC ensemble members
show moisture beginning to overspread So Cal by Saturday and
remains elevated through much of the following week. The 12Z GFS
ensemble is on the drier side and holds off until closer to July
14 (Tuesday), though there is much spread in the ensemble members
early in the week. Interestingly, the 12Z deterministic GFS
remains more in line with the EC ensembles in terms of moisture
onset. Confidence is lacking at just when we could see the first
monsoon push, but at least some signs are pointing to some action
by mid July.

&&

.AVIATION...
021935Z...Coast/Valleys...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis and
patchy low clouds at the beaches. Low clouds will again increase in
coverage and spread inland after 03Z friday, with bases 1000-1500 ft
MSL and tops to 2000 ft MSL. Bases and tops likely to lower by a few
hundred feet after 09Z Fri. Low clouds and fog not reaching as far
inland as last night but could reach KONT briefly after 10Z Fri.
Reduced visibility of 1-3 miles will occur where clouds and terrain
intersect. Expect inland clearing 15Z-17Z Fri and 19Z-21Z at the
coast.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.


&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory from 6 PM Friday to noon PDT Monday for
     Orange County Coastal Areas.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Friday evening through Monday
     morning for San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE...PG