Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS66 KSGX 191010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
310 AM PDT Sun Aug 19 2018

High pressure aloft over Southern California will transition east
to be positioned over Arizona on Monday, then eventually over
Texas mid to late week as an upper level trough moves into
northern California and extending southwest over the Pacific. As
the high shifts east, there is a brief opportunity for mountain
and desert thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon, but that
chance fades mid to late week as much drier air moves into the
area. Temps throughout the week will stay above average, but not
to excessive levels and it will continue humid near the coast with
nighttime and morning low cloudiness.



High pressure aloft currently resides over Southern California.
Global models are in agreement in showing this high transitioning
to the east to be placed over Arizona on Monday then all the way
to Texas during the middle to later part of the week as a trough
moves into NorCal extending southwest into the Pacific.

There now only looks to be about a two day window where monsoonal
moisture returns to SoCal for afternoon mountain and desert
thunderstorms. That looks to be Monday and Tuesday afternoon. By
Wednesday, both GFS and EC now show the local area between a
trough lying to the northwest and ridging centered well off to
the east with a dry west-southwest flow aloft, shoving the
monsoonal moisture back to the east. This has been a change from
model runs 24-48 hours ago, but there now has been some run-to-
run consistency on this scenario. As such, the forecast was
trended to reflect isolated-scattered mountain and desert
thunderstorms Monday-Tuesday with dry weather from Wednesday
onward. Even on Monday-Tuesday, the moisture is not nearly as
high as our recent monsoonal tstorm episodes, so only isolated-
scattered tstorms are forecast with a low risk of flash flooding.

Temperatures will continue to run above average through the week
(trough too far away/heights remain rather high locally) and it
will continue humid near the coast. Gusty west- southwest winds
will occur especially mid week through passes and from mountain
ridges to the desert slopes, but doesn`t look to reach even
advisory levels at this time.


190950Z...Coasts/Valleys...Areas of low clouds with bases 1200-1700
feet MSL will continue to develop along the coast and locally spread
up to 20 miles inland through 15Z. Clouds will clear to the coast by
18Z. Clouds spreading back inland after 20/03Z with bases 1000-1500
ft MSL.

Mountains/Deserts...Shallow cumulus clouds may develop over the
mountain crests during the afternoon, dissipating by sunset.
Otherwise a few mid and high clouds AOA 10000 ft MSL through Monday


No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.


Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.




AVIATION/MARINE...SS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.