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000
FXUS66 KSGX 230930
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
230 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure building over the Southwest will bring dry, warm
weather through the middle of next week. Late next week a trough
deepening along the West Coast will bring cooler weather next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A trough moving across Southern California this morning will drift
east toward Arizona this afternoon. It will be replaced by a weak
ridge that will bring generally clear skies and warm weather this
weekend.

Early next week the jet stream will be over the Pacific Northwest
with weak troughing or zonal flow over the Southwest. This pattern
will bring mostly clear skies Monday through Wednesday and high
temperatures close to normal. Coastal highs will be in the 70s,
valley highs in the 80s, mountain highs in the 60s and 70s, high
desert highs in the 80s, and lower desert highs from 95-100. Night
and morning low clouds will be mostly confined to coastal areas.

Late next week the ensemble guidance is showing a deeper West Coast
trough that is forecast to dig farther south toward SoCal. The 00Z
models were in greater agreement than the 12Z models with the
strength and depth of this trough. Its first impacts will be subtle
cooling on Thursday followed by more noticeable cooling Friday and
Saturday along with a deeper marine layer and blustery mountain and
desert winds. There is also some potential for light precipitation
with this trough next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
230855Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN AOA 10,000 FT MSL through late
morning before diminishing. Slight chance of cigs vcty
KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA with bases 2000-2500 FT MSL 11z-15z Sat, though there
is low confidence in occurrence.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN AOA 10,000 FT MSL through late morning
before diminishing.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy northwest winds may create rough boating conditions near the
entrance of the San Diego Bay this afternoon. Northwest winds with
gusts approaching 20 kts in the outer waters are expected each
afternoon Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Moede
AVIATION/MARINE...EA