498
FXUS64 KSHV 161057
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
557 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Surface high pressure has started to push east of the region,
allowing southerly winds to return into the area. Mid and high
clouds have also moved into the region, which has held overnight
temps several degrees warmer than the previous night. Although the
main system expected to produce rainfall over the next 36-48
hours hasn`t quite arrived yet, a weak disturbance ahead of it has
already started to produced some convection across portions of
north and central Texas. This activity is quickly moving
northeast, and will move into portions of our East Texas counties
before daybreak. Short-term progs suggest this convection will
diminish by mid morning once it gets into our Louisiana parishes.

For today, flow aloft will remain southwesterly in response to a
closed trough shifting eastward across the SW CONUS into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. A potent disturbance is expected to
move out of western Texas into Central Texas and eventually
towards Northern Louisiana, bringing rain back into the region
during the afternoon and evening hours today. With PWATs
forecasted to be over 2 inches, rainfall could be moderate to
heavy at times. Models still suggest this heavy rainfall axis
will develop along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Unfortunately, this is where the heaviest rainfall fell a couple
days ago, so WPC has highlighted this with a Moderate and High
Risk potential for Excessive Rainfall in the aforementioned
areas. A Flood Watch has also been issued for counties and
parishes generally along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor
through 7 PM Friday. In addition to the heavy rainfall, some
severe weather will be possible mainly in the same areas. Shear
and high CAPE should support the development of some super cells
with initial develop this afternoon just west of the area. Progs
suggest this convection will eventually form into a decent MCS,
possibly moving across our Deep East Texas and adjacent Central
Louisiana zones. All modes of severe weather would be possible,
but damaging winds appear the greatest threat.

The moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to move out the region
by late this evening, but we could see some lingering convection
hang around after midnight tonight and through sunrise Friday
morning. I think we may see a break in activity during the
morning hours Friday, before more convection is expected to
develop as the trough and associated cold front move into the
region. With an unstable environment in place, severe storms could
be possible again, but it looks like the threat will shift to our
eastern Louisiana zones. Again, all modes would be in play.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The severe weather threat should end on Friday, but convection
could linger into Saturday with the upper trough, as it will be
slow to exit the region. Dry conditions will return Sunday and
through the first portion of next week, as upper ridging is
expected to quickly build into the region on the heels of the
trough. With dry conditions in place, temperatures are expected to
climb well above normal. Afternoon highs are forecast to top out
in the lower 90s during this period. The center of the ridge will
shift south of the region by the middle of next week. This will
allow a cold front to try to move into the region during this
time, but the ridge will likely have enough influence to keep the
front from advancing through the entire region. With the boundary
stalled over the area, rain chances are forecasted to return by
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Conditions should remain mostly mild through the morning, with
perhaps an isolated shower here or there. Skies will remain VFR,
before beginning to deteriorate around 17/00z. MVFR/IFR CIGS will
move into the area, along with moderate to heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorms may be possible, but confidence was only high enough
to carry TS at KLFK.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  68  83  68 /  60  90  30  20
MLU  87  66  83  67 /  30  90  50  30
DEQ  84  63  80  62 /  40  70  50  20
TXK  86  66  82  66 /  50  70  40  20
ELD  86  64  81  63 /  30  80  40  30
TYR  82  67  82  66 /  80  80  20  10
GGG  83  67  82  66 /  70  80  20  20
LFK  82  67  83  67 /  90  80  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday evening
     for LAZ010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday evening
     for TXZ136-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...44