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419
FXUS64 KSHV 200218
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
918 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.UPDATE...
Just sent out a quick update to adjust pops areawide. Still
holding to high pops across northwest Louisiana overnight based on
HRRR guidance and proximity of upper-trough to the ArkLaTex.
Otherwise, will likely experience winds bordering Lake Wind
Criteria on Friday but will wait on 00Z model data before
finalizing decisions. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

AVIATION...
Conditions to deteriorate overnight as ceilings become MVFR/IFR
areawide after 20/03Z. Additionally, widespread showers will
continue overnight with VCSH conditions possible across area
terminals. Ceilings to gradually improve to VFR by 20/18Z with
east to southeast winds around around 10 knots increasing to 10 to
15 knots on Friday with gusts to 25 knots across mainly east
Texas terminals. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday Night/

As weak inland tropical systems typically do, Imelda has presented
immense forecast challenges in terms of amounts and placement of
heavy rainfall. Fortunately for us, rainfall rates have been mostly
light where rain has fallen and haven`t resulted in any flooding
issues. The same cannot be said for much of SE Texas where immense
flooding has occurred with over 30 inches of rain in some isolated
areas. As the remnants of Imelda continue to slowly lift northward,
additional rainfall across our region is expected to remain quite
manageable and so the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled for
those areas in East Texas and Northwest Louisiana where it was in
effect. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible
across our western locations with lighter amounts expected farther
east through Friday night.

The trends will be for showers and thunderstorms to gradually
expand northward through the remainder of tonight into Friday with
convection tapering off late Friday and especially Friday night.
Temperatures will continue to run below seasonal averages through
the short-term period with the overcast conditions and periods of
rainfall. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s while daytime highs on Friday are expected to mainly
run in the lower to mid 80s.

/19/

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/

The remnants of Imelda will be a thing of the past by Saturday with
her moisture pulling north toward a frontal zone in the Central
Plains and Midwest. Lingering boundary layer moisture could still be
enough to spur some very isolated afternoon convection, but a more
dominant upper level ridging influence will be providing some non-
favorable subsidence to the troposphere by that time. Conditions
will otherwise be muggy with temperatures at least slightly above
normal.

We still expect the aforementioned cold front to drop toward the
region on Sunday, probably making it into far northern zones of the
Four State region Sunday night into Monday before stalling. The
general model consensus on this frontal progression into northern
zones has improved somewhat in the past 24 hours. Correspondingly,
chances of rain associated with the front have increased some Sunday
night into Monday in northern zones, although chances are still
mainly below 40 percent and the potential for impactful or hazardous
weather remains quite low. There is some potential this front makes
enough inroads into the region to bring back at least isolated
convection for all areas by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week,
especially if a big upper disturbance coming into the southwestern
CONUS early next week does not get cut off from the westerlies. But
the latter stipulation is a big question mark right now as model
consensus in this regard is not good. If the disturbance does manage
to not cut off from the flow (and remain locked in the southwest
CONUS), then rain chances for portions of the region could go up
considerably around Wednesday to Thursday of next week. Conversely,
if the disturbance does not head this way then anticipate dry
conditions and a further trend back toward unseasonable warmth.

/50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  84  72  90 /  80  60  10  10
MLU  70  85  69  91 /  60  60  10  10
DEQ  68  81  70  87 /  70  80  40  10
TXK  68  80  71  86 /  80  80  30  10
ELD  68  81  69  90 /  70  60  20  10
TYR  70  85  72  89 /  70  70  10  10
GGG  70  84  71  90 /  80  70  10  10
LFK  71  84  72  89 /  60  60  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/19