Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
005 FXUS64 KSHV 192326 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 626 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, particularly across the northwestern ArkLaTex. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, and a spin-up tornado or two is not out of the question, - Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the course of the next seven days, resulting in total accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. - As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of rainfall, the risk of flash flooding will become a concern through late this week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An initial wave of showers and thunderstorms is pushing through extreme southeast Oklahoma into southwest Arkansas at this hour, along a boundary out ahead out the main cold front draped across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. As the front pushes east and south today, a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop further along the front`s southern extent, advancing into the ArkLaTex this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the principal hazard, along with large hail north. The threat for tornadoes is comparably low, though a brief spin-up is not out of the question altogether. Finally, training areas of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding, particularly in urban areas across the western ArkLaTex. Today`s wave of strong thunderstorms should run its course by late this evening, diminishing in intensity as it makes southeastward progress, but the rainfall will just be beginning, as the front responsible for the storms slows its progress and becomes nearly stationary, stalling near or along the I-20 corridor. A series of weak upper level disturbances embedded in the southwest flow will trek northeastward over the region through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, tapping into the firehose of moisture which will be aimed at the ArkLaTex throughout the course of this forecast period. It bears mentioning that this does not mean a week`s worth of continuous rainfall, per se, but we do expect frequent enough impulses to result in high confidence of at least daily rounds of showers and a few rumbles of thunder. The persistent nature of this set up is also elevating the potential for flash flooding. The ArkLaTex is included in at least lower-end risk flood outlooks through the remainder of the week. The most recent accumulation forecast totals suggest at least 4 inches of rain across the region, with the highest totals in the 5 to 7 inch range. Bear in mind, these totals will be accumulated through the course of the next 7 days, not in a single event, but as soils become saturated with daily rainfall by late this week, it will not take as much additional rain to result in flooding. Reinforced by southerly flow, warm conditions will continue this afternoon, before this wet pattern puts a dent in the well-above average temperatures of the past few days. Highs will settle into the low to middle 80s by late in the week, with lows in the 60s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering rain with embedded thunder to quickly diminish through the evening hours allowing for muggy conditions resulting in MVFR ceilings areawide. Ceilings to persist through 20/15Z with gradual improvement to VFR through the afternoon with the possibility of VCTS conditions across LFK. Otherwise, light winds tonight to become northeast at 6 knots on Wednesday. /05/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Spotter activation may be needed areawide through early this evening. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 84 68 81 / 70 50 50 90 MLU 70 85 69 84 / 80 60 70 90 DEQ 64 82 64 76 / 30 30 40 80 TXK 67 84 67 79 / 60 40 50 90 ELD 66 83 65 80 / 80 50 50 90 TYR 68 82 68 79 / 60 40 50 90 GGG 69 83 68 81 / 70 40 50 90 LFK 71 84 70 82 / 80 50 40 90 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...05