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000
FXUS64 KSHV 082347
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
547 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains oriented along the
I-30 corridor this afternoon, serving as the primary focus for
showers and isolated thunderstorms. This boundary is expected to
slowly lift back northward as a warm front this evening just ahead
of a cold front dropping south from the Southern Plains toward the
Middle Red River Valley. This cold front will maintain convection
overnight across much of our northern zones, generally north of
I-20 with little to no coverage farther south of the corridor. In
terms of overnight temperatures, they will generally range from
the mid and upper 50s far north following fropa overnight while
lower to mid 60s will be common across the remainder of the area.

This follows another day of unseasonably warm temperatures as much
as 15-20 degrees above average for this time of year. In fact, a
few more record highs could potentially fall this afternoon given
our current readings over parts of East Texas and North Louisiana.
Expect this trend of warmer temperatures to continue into Friday
as the cold front will eventually stall near I-20 and then retreat
northward as a warm front by Friday evening into Friday night. As
a result, warm air advection will maintain through the short-term
period on Friday night with lows generally in the upper 50s to
lower and mid 60s.

Another cold front will approach the region late on Friday night
through early Saturday morning and bring another increase in rain
chances mainly across our NW half. This may include some isolated
thunderstorms as well with enough upper-level support in SW flow
to aid in the cooling of temperatures aloft and some instability.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

The prevailing story for the better part of the last week has been
waves of moisture riding on southwesterly flow on the northwest side
of a stubborn ridge over the Gulf. This pattern will finally begin
to come to an end this weekend, as said ridge and associated upper
level high breaks down, broadens and drifts east, making way for the
next large scale feature of note: a pronounced trough, which will
dig south from Canada, deep into the Rockies before ejecting east
over the Great Plains early next week, characterized by a tight
gradient of 500mb heights on its leading edge, extending from the
Great Lakes south and west into west Texas and northern Mexico. This
trough will bring with it a potent cold front, which when introduced
to the warmer, very moist environment across the southeast, looks on
course to set the stage for another round of unsettled weather,
favorable for thunderstorms capable of becoming severe.

The forecast has shown reasonable spatial consistency and increasing
confidence in recent days, with the SPC severe weather outlooks
continuing to highlight northwestern regions of the ArkLaTex in a
slight risk (15%) for Day 5 (Monday, December 12th) and the entirety
of the Four State Region for Day 6 (Tuesday, December 13th), with a
30% enhanced risk encompassing our eastern zones, including the
cities of El Dorado, Shreveport, Monroe and Natchitoches. The timing
of this system remains a matter of some uncertainty, not aided by
the unsettled pattern which will continue in the days leading up to
the event, but based on latest long range model guidance, initial
waves of what will likely prove to be elevated convection favoring
hail development could begin during the day Monday, followed by a
broad area of potentially quite heavy rainfall consistent with a
squall line as early as daybreak Tuesday north and west, continuing
through the day Tuesday as it progresses south and east. This
feature will likely prove to be the "main event," during which all
modes of severe weather should be considered possible. Again, this
is based on the latest line of thinking, but is very much subject to
change as forthcoming updates introduce more precise information.
All are advised to stay tuned through the coming days.

Saturday will see the southeastward progression of the latest round
of unsettled weather, with showers overtaking the region during the
daytime hours, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. This
activity will continue overnight into Sunday, beginning to taper off
north of I-20 by daybreak and holding on through much of the day
south. Another round of moisture will intrude from the south,
bringing a return of showers across the majority of the region
overnight into Monday. Rain chances will persist through the day,
with thunder becoming most likely along and north of the I-30
corridor late in the afternoon or shortly after sundown, followed by
the increased thunder and high confidence PoPs associated with the
severe weather described above. Current long range models are
favoring a relatively slow eastward progression of the upper level
trough, suggesting lingering lower end PoPs sticking around across
our southeasternmost parishes through as late as Wednesday morning
before exiting the region entirely and leaving dry conditions in its
wake.

Temperatures will hold with recent trends through the weekend and
early next week, with above average temperatures areawide and a
discernible north-south gradient influenced by ridging to the south.
Highs ranging from the 60s north to mid/upper 70s south will
continue through Tuesday, after which the cold front will bring a
precipitous cooldown, marked by highs in the 50s to lower 60s
Wednesday, with 50s areawide Thursday. Lows will likewise linger in
the 60s ahead of the front, behind which 40s will return north and
west Wednesday morning, with widespread of 30s and possibly some
below-freezing temperatures late next week.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

Varying flight conditions continue to exist across the airspace
as the stalled boundary holds still across northern terminals,
mainly impacting KTXK and KELD. A band of convection outlines the
boundary as it tries to slowly inch south this evening once again.
CIGs will continue to fall through the period around the airspace
before lifting for some near the end of the period as the
boundary tries to retreat back north once again. As the boundary
pushes south for the time being though, FG along and behind the
boundary, as well as across far southern terminals (KLFK), looks
to develop once again this evening. It is not out of the question
for some isolated patchy FG or mist to develop near terminals
along the I-20 corridor depending how far south the boundary dips
this evening and overnight, possibly developing by mid to late
morning. To match this theory, decided to include this in TAFs
such as KSHV and KMLU. With the front pushing south, stronger
convection and even VCTS are to be expected near terminals north
of I-20, again closer to KTXK and KELD. By mid to late period
however, strongest convection looks to collapse as -RA and VCSH
look to be primary concerns for terminals along and near I-20.

/53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  63  76 /  30  30  10  50
MLU  64  77  60  77 /  10  30  10  30
DEQ  57  69  57  69 /  50  20  60  80
TXK  63  70  61  71 /  80  50  40  70
ELD  60  70  57  72 /  70  50  20  60
TYR  64  74  64  74 /  40  30  20  60
GGG  64  76  63  75 /  30  30  10  60
LFK  63  80  63  78 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...53