716
FXUS64 KSHV 231739
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Abundant daytime cu has already developed, particularly across
Southeast Oklahoma and most of East Texas. Diurnal showers are
already beginning to develop in this zone, and visible satellite
indicates more convective activity in the cu field in this band.
There is still uncertainty regarding northward extent, and the
best coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon should
still be in Deep East Texas where the best moisture availability
is located. Therefore, no changes were made to rain chances for
the remainder of today.

Temperatures are generally warming on schedule in most locations.
Decrease cloud cover over South Central Arkansas and much of
Louisiana have allow temperatures there to already warm in to the
lower 90s. Thus, the current Heat Advisory also looks good to go.
Overall, the going forecast for today appears to be mostly on
track.

Nuttall

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Persistence is the best forecast tool in the short-term and that
is best described by afternoon heat and diurnally driven widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Concerning the heat, decided
to post another Heat Advisory for late morning through 6 pm this
evening as high temperatures in the middle 90s and lower to middle
70 degree dewpoints puts us in that 105-109 degree threshold. A
little more mixing out of dewpoints across our western NE TX
counties into SE OK and extreme SW AR will preclude the need for
the Advisory today.

Sunday saw an uptick in convection, especially across our
southwest zones and this pattern appears to repeat itself today
and again on Tuesday. The ingredients necessary for this increased
diurnally driven seabreeze activity includes an anchored ridge of
high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic states with the ridge
emanating south and west into the Tenn Valley. Weak perturbations
rounding this ridge axis from the Northern Gulf will move inland,
further enhanced by daytime heating and PWATs north of 1.5 inches.
Progs are in pretty descent agreement of a slight uptick in storm
coverage on Tuesday compared to today so look for mostly widely
scattered convection today with that convection more scattered in
nature for Tuesday. Concerning timing, storms will likely begin
initiating after the Noon hour and continue to generate along
remnant outflow boundaries before dissipating by the late evening
so have held onto small pops til almost midnight.

Did not stray too far from NBM concerning Max and Min Temps but
did have to bump afternoon dewpoints up slightly across some
locations due to the NBM mixing down dewpoints too much.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the remainder of the work week and into the upcoming weekend,
the center of the above mentioned upper ridge across the Mid-
Atlantic does appear to slowly retrograde westward into the Tenn
Valley. This would result in the ridge axis having more of an
impact across our region, especially in the Wed thru Fri
timeframe resulting in even hotter temperatures. NBM is spitting
out upper 90s to near 100 degrees across the northern and
northeastern portions of our region by late week and see no reason
to argue with this line of thinking if the ridge does retrograde
as some deterministic progs suggest. This would also result in a
downturn in storm coverage but did hold only slight chance pops
across mainly our southeast half through the end of the week and
into the upcoming weekend as this is where the best moisture will
exist for diurnally driven convection each day.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the 23/18Z TAFs, widespread lower VFR CIGs prevail as a Cu
field overspreads area airspace. Through the late afternoon and
early evening hours, scattered pop up thunderstorms will be
possible, particular across east Texas and adjacent zones, but
coverage should be less than yesterday. Cu field expected to
dissipate shortly after sundown, with VFR high clouds prevailing
overnight before brief CIG/VIS reductions return shortly before
daybreak at sheltered terminals. Light south southeast winds will
become variable and nearly calm overnight before picking up again
during the day tomorrow. A few gusts of up to 10 kts will be
possible across east Texas early in this forecast period.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms
capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter
activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not
likely through tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  76  96 /  20  30  20  20
MLU  75  95  74  96 /  20  30  20  20
DEQ  71  93  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
TXK  75  95  74  97 /  20  30  20  20
ELD  73  95  72  96 /  20  30  20  20
TYR  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  73  94  73  93 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  73  94  72  93 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ060-061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26