


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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716 FXUS64 KSHV 231739 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Abundant daytime cu has already developed, particularly across Southeast Oklahoma and most of East Texas. Diurnal showers are already beginning to develop in this zone, and visible satellite indicates more convective activity in the cu field in this band. There is still uncertainty regarding northward extent, and the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon should still be in Deep East Texas where the best moisture availability is located. Therefore, no changes were made to rain chances for the remainder of today. Temperatures are generally warming on schedule in most locations. Decrease cloud cover over South Central Arkansas and much of Louisiana have allow temperatures there to already warm in to the lower 90s. Thus, the current Heat Advisory also looks good to go. Overall, the going forecast for today appears to be mostly on track. Nuttall && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Persistence is the best forecast tool in the short-term and that is best described by afternoon heat and diurnally driven widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Concerning the heat, decided to post another Heat Advisory for late morning through 6 pm this evening as high temperatures in the middle 90s and lower to middle 70 degree dewpoints puts us in that 105-109 degree threshold. A little more mixing out of dewpoints across our western NE TX counties into SE OK and extreme SW AR will preclude the need for the Advisory today. Sunday saw an uptick in convection, especially across our southwest zones and this pattern appears to repeat itself today and again on Tuesday. The ingredients necessary for this increased diurnally driven seabreeze activity includes an anchored ridge of high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic states with the ridge emanating south and west into the Tenn Valley. Weak perturbations rounding this ridge axis from the Northern Gulf will move inland, further enhanced by daytime heating and PWATs north of 1.5 inches. Progs are in pretty descent agreement of a slight uptick in storm coverage on Tuesday compared to today so look for mostly widely scattered convection today with that convection more scattered in nature for Tuesday. Concerning timing, storms will likely begin initiating after the Noon hour and continue to generate along remnant outflow boundaries before dissipating by the late evening so have held onto small pops til almost midnight. Did not stray too far from NBM concerning Max and Min Temps but did have to bump afternoon dewpoints up slightly across some locations due to the NBM mixing down dewpoints too much. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the remainder of the work week and into the upcoming weekend, the center of the above mentioned upper ridge across the Mid- Atlantic does appear to slowly retrograde westward into the Tenn Valley. This would result in the ridge axis having more of an impact across our region, especially in the Wed thru Fri timeframe resulting in even hotter temperatures. NBM is spitting out upper 90s to near 100 degrees across the northern and northeastern portions of our region by late week and see no reason to argue with this line of thinking if the ridge does retrograde as some deterministic progs suggest. This would also result in a downturn in storm coverage but did hold only slight chance pops across mainly our southeast half through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as this is where the best moisture will exist for diurnally driven convection each day. 13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the 23/18Z TAFs, widespread lower VFR CIGs prevail as a Cu field overspreads area airspace. Through the late afternoon and early evening hours, scattered pop up thunderstorms will be possible, particular across east Texas and adjacent zones, but coverage should be less than yesterday. Cu field expected to dissipate shortly after sundown, with VFR high clouds prevailing overnight before brief CIG/VIS reductions return shortly before daybreak at sheltered terminals. Light south southeast winds will become variable and nearly calm overnight before picking up again during the day tomorrow. A few gusts of up to 10 kts will be possible across east Texas early in this forecast period. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not likely through tonight. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 95 76 96 / 20 30 20 20 MLU 75 95 74 96 / 20 30 20 20 DEQ 71 93 71 93 / 20 30 20 20 TXK 75 95 74 97 / 20 30 20 20 ELD 73 95 72 96 / 20 30 20 20 TYR 73 92 73 92 / 20 30 20 20 GGG 73 94 73 93 / 20 30 20 20 LFK 73 94 72 93 / 30 30 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ060-061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...None. TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-138- 151>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...26