Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 271053
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
553 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

.AVIATION...

All remains quiet on the aviation front and that is expected to
continue with VFR conditions prevailing through the next 24 hours.
May see a brief cu field in the vicinity of the ELF terminal.
Look for west northwest to north winds today with speeds near or less
than 10kts with those winds becoming light and variable beyond 28/00z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday/

Water vapor early this morning showing a deep closed upper low
spinning across the Mid Miss Valley which was our rain maker this
past Tuesday and Tuesday Night. In the wake of this trough, our
region remains under northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge
extending from the Tx Hill Country into the Intermountain West.
As we go forward in time, this ridge is fcst to flatten somewhat
as it moves eastward into the Southern and Central Plains tonight
through Saturday. There may be enough moisture in the lower levels
across our northeast zones for a weak afternoon cu field but
otherwise, our region should be under the influence of sunny skies
today with clear skies overnight tonight.

Sfc ridging will move ovhd late today, shifting east of our region
late tonight with a return to southeast winds across our far
western zones tonight and areawide southerly winds on Saturday.
Have continued the trend of going with the warmer NBM MOS output
given the very dry atmosphere in place and a little under this
guidance tonight with descent radiational cooling expected. Look
for 90s to return to our western half for Saturday with the south
winds.

13

LONG TERM.../Saturday Night through Thursday Night/

The majority of the long term forecast period will be dominated by
the effects of an upper level trough which by sunset on Saturday
will begin building over the Pacific Northwest, proceeding to dig
south into the northern Rockies as the new workweek begins.
Meanwhile, upper level ridging will amplify over the eastern third
of the CONUS, persisting through roughly the middle of next week. By
mid week, the upper level features will begin to flatten out, and
the deamplified ridge will start to lift east. Until this time, dry
conditions will prevail throughout the entire Four State Region.

The latest ensemble model runs indicate that the surface boundary
associated with the aforementioned upper level trough will bring a
return of scattered showers and thunderstorms to zones along and
north of the I-30 corridor Wednesday morning, lingering through the
afternoon and overnight hours, and becoming more widespread during
the day Thursday.

Under the effects of upper level ridging, afternoon highs will climb
into the low to mid 90s for the majority of the ArkLaTex Sunday and
into early next week, featuring a gradual warming trend which the
midweek return of rainfall may manage to hinder, particularly across
our northernmost counties. Lows throughout will start in the upper
60s, gradually warming into the lower 70s as the week continues.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  60  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  83  59  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  84  56  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  84  59  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  82  56  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  86  63  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  86  60  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  90  61  93  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

13/13/26


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