011
FXUS64 KSHV 131757 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
   possible across the Four State Region today.

 - More in the way of scattered convection on Monday before rain
   chances dwindle as the work week continues.

 - With lower rain chances during the week, temperatures should
   begin to warm with near Heat Advisory criteria possible later
   this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

An upper-level trough with embedded closed low across eastern
Oklahoma into Texas to linger through Monday night allowing for
increased instability resulting in periods of mainly diurnally
driven convection today through Monday evening. Locally heavy
rainfall can be expected with some storms today, especially in the
vicinity of the upper-trough across southeast Oklahoma and
northeast Texas. Stronger convection to gradually diminish during
the evening hours with scattered lingering showers and embedded
thunderstorms possibly continuing through the early morning
hours. Overnight lows are forecast to average in the lower 70s.

Similar conditions expected again on Monday as upper-low remains
parked across Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Scattered diurnally
driven afternoon showers expected with conditions again improving
in the evening as the upper-low begins to shift northeast
into Missouri, marking the beginning of an overall pattern shift
across the ArkLaTex. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to range
from the mid 80s across southeast Oklahoma where best rain chances
are expected to the the mid 90s across north Louisiana where
subsidence from an upper-ridge building west will become more
influential.

Upper-ridge to become established across the region on Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing for more typical July hot and dry conditions
areawide. Some locations across the ArkLaTex could expect highs
in the upper 90s by Wednesday afternoon with afternoon heat index
values 105 to 107 degrees across much of north Louisiana.

Models are coming into agreement in bringing an easterly wave
across the northern gulf coast late in the work week allowing for
increased rain chances across mainly portions of Louisiana and
south Arkansas continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and much of the
evening/overnight hours, although scattered convection will again
develop this afternoon over E TX, and spread NE into SW AR/NW LA,
and could produce MVFR cigs, wind gusts near/in excess of 35kts,
and reduced vsbys. Have inserted tempo thunder mention for all
terminals this afternoon, with the convection possibly persisting
through mid to late evening before diminishing. While much of the
cu field will diminish after sunset, elevated convective debris
will linger through a good portion of the evening/overnight hours,
with the potential for additional scattered convection
redevelopment possible after 08Z across portions of NE TX/SE
OK/adjacent sections of SW AR, which may linger through much of
the remainder of the morning. Have added VCSH mention to the
TYR/GGG/TXK terminals to account for this potential, with low
MVFR/IFR cigs again developing after 09Z over E TX/portions of N
LA, which will spread N into SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR
by/after 12Z. These cigs will slowly lift by mid/late morning,
with VFR conditions returning by the end of the TAF period. Should
again see an increase in scattered convection across the region
during the afternoon Monday. SSW winds 7-11kts this afternoon,
except strong/gusty in and near the convection, will become S 5kts
or less after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early evening
across portions of East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and North
Louisiana for the potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall,
which may result in localized flooding. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  93  77 /  60  30  40  10
MLU  94  75  95  75 /  50  20  40  10
DEQ  87  70  87  70 /  70  50  50  20
TXK  93  73  92  74 /  60  40  40  20
ELD  94  72  93  72 /  60  30  50  10
TYR  90  73  90  74 /  60  40  40  10
GGG  92  73  92  74 /  60  40  40  10
LFK  94  73  93  74 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15