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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011742 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS
1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through Friday afternoon. A cold front
moving through the area today will bring a brief gusty northeast
wind this afternoon but the wind will become light by this
evening. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Mid morning surface analysis had a dry cold front mid way through
the CWA. This cold front will push south of the CWA this afternoon
and only serve to reinforce the cool dry airmass across the
region. Despite the cold front, under full insolation today
temperatures are still expected to climb into the upper 70s to
lower 80s. The current forecast remains on track and no
changes were needed. /22/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 456 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the
forecast period ending 02/12Z. High pressure rebuilding behind a
cold front will bring northeast winds up to 10 knots this
afternoon, becoming northwest at 5 knots after 02/00Z. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/
A cold front stretching from near Clarksville, Texas, to Hope,
Arkansas, will continue to move southeast across the region
today. Not expecting any precipitation with the frontal passage.
Winds will become northeast behind the front and increase to up to
10 mph, then diminish overnight to near 5 mph and shift to the
northeast. Afternoon high temperatures today are forecast to climb
into the upper 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows in the upper
40s to lower 50s.

Light and variable winds expected on Friday as the surface high
becomes better established across the region with high
temperatures forecast to range from the upper 60s across the I-30
corridor to the mid 70s elsewhere. /05/

LONG TERM.../Friday Night through Wednesday Night/

Not much change in previous thoughts for the long-term period.
Friday night and through the weekend, a large upper ridge will
continue to hold firm over the West Coast and Rocky Mountain Region
of the CONUS, with a deep longwave trough remaining over the
remainder of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will keep an
amplified pattern in place across the country, with persistent
northwesterly flow aloft and below normal temperatures in our area.

High pressure will be in place over the region Friday into Friday
night in wake of a previous frontal passage.  This will allow
temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning to fall below
normal, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s
areawide. The high will slide east of the region on Saturday,
allowing for southerly flow to return through early Sunday ahead of
another frontal passage.  Expect a slight warm-up in temperatures
for the weekend, with afternoon highs ranging from the low 70s in
our northern zones to near 80 degrees across Deep East Texas and
Central Louisiana, along with overnight lows in the mid 50s. Models
continue to be in agreement with rain chances returning late
Saturday in our NW zones and then shifting southeastward through
early Sunday afternoon, as a cold front moves through the area.
Limited moisture with this system, so the best chances for
precipitation continue to be across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest
Arkansas, and areas of East Texas and North Louisiana, along and
north of the Interstate 20 corridor.  This is mostly due to the
aforementioned areas proximity to the large scale forcing with this
system. Instability will also be limited with this system, so no
severe weather is expected at this time.

Dry conditions to return late Sunday behind the front and will
continue into early next week. It appears that the aforementioned
western upper ridge will shift eastward into the Central and
Southern Plains by the middle of next week, resulting in continued
dry conditions and a warming trend. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  53  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  78  50  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  78  48  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  77  49  68  50 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  79  49  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  53  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  83  52  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  84  54  79  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/20/22