647
FXUS64 KSHV 091744
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1244 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

As of 10:30 AM this morning, temperatures are approaching the
lower 80s once again under mostly sunny skies. The atmosphere
remains conducive for severe weather later today as indicated in
some parameters from the 12Z morning sounding (mid-level lapse
rates above 7 C/km, CAPE above 2000 J/kg, DCAPE above 1000 J/kg),
therefore a special sounding will be forthcoming in the next few
hours to requantify these parameters. Otherwise, temperature
maximums will reach or exceed 90 degrees along and south of the
I-20 corridor. With weather and observed trends continuing as
anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this
time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Vast array of remnant outflows are present on the KSHV radar this
morning following the collapse of late Wednesday afternoon and
evening convection. These have supported some brief thunderstorms
across NW Louisiana that have since collapsed.

As of 2 AM CDT, the KSHV ASOS reported a temperature reading of 80
deg F over a 73 deg F dew point. At the same time, sfc obs across
the region still advertise persistant southerlies, indicating that
much of the Ark-La-Tex remains on the south side of the advancing
cold front to the north, and just east of an intersecting dry line
across South-Central Texas. How far south this cold front advances,
prior to stalling briefly late this morning, will set the stage
for where the best instability will be located this afternoon,
along with where the dominate convective evolution traverses by
the evening.

This afternoon through early Friday AM:

By this afternoon, general thinking is for the sfc boundary to be
located somewhere between the I-20 and I-30 corridor. To the west,
closer to the DFW metroplex, the influence of the dryline and cold
front intersection, along with additional forcing from a shortwave
trough across Texas, will allow for supercell thunderstorms to
initiate within another volatile environment ahead of the cold
front. As storms grow and multiply in coverage to the west of the
local FA, morning CAMs suggest gradual clustering, ultimately
supporting the development of a multi-cell complex that will
enter another impressive environment across the Ark-La-Tex. Once
again, sfc theta-e recovery will compliment SBCAPE profiles
exceeding 4000 J/kg along and south of the I-20 corridor, while
co-located in an area of 700-500 lapse rates above 8.0 C/km, with
moderate bulk shear values present. High temperatures in the upper
80`s and low 90`s this afternoon will only aid to the aforementioned
instability. Given the parameters available, general thinking is
for an evolving MCS to trek into the local FA, presenting the
threat for damaging straight line winds, hail and a few brief
embedded tornadoes.

Still some uncertainty surrounding the overall evolution and
strength of the possible MCS as it works across the CWA, with
more questions surrounding the swath of possible wind impacts. As
a result, the latest day 1 Storm Prediction Center Outlook has
expanded the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to cover much of the
local FA.

Friday AM through the end of Short Term Period:

As the progged convective complex works east of the local area by
early Friday morning, southward advancement of the sfc boundary
will follow. The boundary should be located south of Toledo Bend
around sunrise, with high pressure quickly advancing into the
region. This will support drier conditions to end the week, with
an introduction to near-normal temperatures as we head into the
weekend.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

While starting dry, the pattern once again turns towards the return
to rain chances to finish the weekend and heading into early next
week. Upper ridging overhead will shift eastward by Sunday afternoon
as large scale forcing supports the return of moderate precip and
embedded thunderstorms by the late afternoon and evening. The
pattern will continue into Monday as an upper-low parks across
north Texas and southern Oklahoma, prevailing synoptic forcing
locally to redevelop additional showers and thunderstorms.

Some members of the large scale guidance do suggest that rain
chances carry over into parts of Tuesday, so have elected to carry
those chances. A second story to the long term package will be the
gradual climb of maxT`s locally, starting in the low 80`s and
finishing close to 90 deg F by mid week.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

For the 09/18Z TAFs, IFR to MVFR CIGs prevail across area
terminals and will struggle to recover significantly through the
remainder of the afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate from west
to east by the late afternoon and early evening hours as a complex
of strong thunderstorms moves out of east Texas and into Louisiana
and Arkansas, parallel to the Interstate 20 corridor. Destructive
winds as high as 75 mph will be possible with these storms, as
well as damaging large hail and possibly a tornado or two. This
will be a fast-moving complex and should depart the area quickly
during the overnight and pre-dawn hours, with a return to VFR
conditions to follow. Winds will be variable through the afternoon
and evening before becoming northeasterly and northerly behind
this evening`s storms, continuing through the end of this
forecast period at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  84  62  82 /  60   0   0   0
MLU  66  83  59  81 /  50   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  81 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  82  58  82 /  40   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  55  81 /  30   0   0   0
TYR  65  82  60  80 /  60   0   0   0
GGG  64  83  60  81 /  60   0   0   0
LFK  67  85  62  81 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...26