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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KSJT 211106
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
606 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Early this morning, the mid-level trough axis that brought much-
needed rain to the area has moved eastward. This has allowed
northwest flow aloft to start settling over the region. However,
the cool and wet airmass in the low-levels remains in place and
should persist as a surface high moves southward into the southern
Plains today and will continue to push cooler air into the region
via northeasterly winds. The resulting stout inversion in the
low-levels should help cloud cover to persist for most of the
day. Initially, RAP soundings show the cloud depth anywhere
between 6000-8000ft. Some thermal mixing should still occur,
which would allow some breaks in cloud cover to appear by this
afternoon, mainly across the Big Country. Otherwise the Concho
Valley southward will likely remain mostly cloudy to overcast
through the day. High temperatures are expected to reach the low
to mid 60s, but this will depend highly on how much insolation can
break through the clouds. Overnight, low level winds should
become more southerly, which should help cloud cover to break up a
bit more. Lows should fall into the low to mid 40s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The early part of the work week will feature a warming trend.
After a cool start to the day, highs Monday will be pleasant in
the lower to mid 70s. After morning lows 50-55 degrees Tuesday
morning, highs will be 82-87 degrees across the area. Heights will
gradually build aloft as an upper level ridge approaches from the
west. South winds will develop Monday and increase in the afternoon,
and breezy south winds will continue through Tuesday.

With an upper trough moving southeast into the Midwest, trailing
portion of associated cold front is forecast to move south of the
Red River Tuesday evening. The front is progged to stall in or just
north of Haskell/Throckmorton Counties Tuesday night, with a
lingering presence through Wednesday and possibly into Wednesday
night. With a possibility of showers and thunderstorms in the
vicinity of this boundary, will be monitoring model trends in how
far south it can progress. For the bulk of our area, Wednesday looks
warm (highs in the 80s) and more humid as south winds continue and
dewpoints climb into the 60s.

An upper trough is progged to be over the Desert Southwest Wednesday
night, and to lift northeast over northern New Mexico and Colorado
Thursday evening. By that time, will have deeper moisture in place
ahead of a sharpened dryline to our west. Have uncertainty on how
quickly the upper trough will lift out into the Plains, and how far
south the position of the trough will be. This will have an
influence in how far east the dryline progresses into Friday, and on
prospects for associated thunderstorm development. At this time,
carrying mostly low (20-30 percent) PoPs Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night, and Friday for eastern parts of our area. With the
potential for at least moderate instability and favorable/strong
vertical shear, will need to monitor severe weather potential as
well. Temperatures should be very warm by Friday with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s in much of our area.

Next weekend an upper trough is progged to deepen over the western
and into the southwestern CONUS. This will place our area in
southwest flow aloft, with strengthening southerly surface winds.
Temperatures Saturday look very warm with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Given the indications in model blends, carrying low (20-
30) PoPs Saturday afternoon/evening in our northern and eastern
counties. Details are uncertain this far out, but would have a
possibility of a lead wave moving over the area in an unstable
airmass ahead of a dryline.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Ceilings should improve gradually from north to south through the
morning, becoming MVFR for most of the afternoon. Skies across
the Big Country should clear out by late afternoon, but remain
overcast further south until late this evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  42  71  53 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  64  43  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    67  45  75  53 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   62  42  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  61  43  72  54 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       62  45  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       62  44  71  52 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...SK