Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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829 FXUS64 KSJT 082327 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 627 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Cold front moves through overnight tonight through Thursday morning, with potential for Severe Weather Thursday afternoon and evening along the eastern portions of West Central Texas. Above-normal temperatures from today will mostly come to an end as the next cold front tracks into West Central Texas overnight tonight into Thursday morning, with only the southern half of West Central Texas continuing to experience above-normal temperatures again on Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s tonight, with afternoon highs on Thursday ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s north of a Silver to Brownwood line, and from the upper 80s to upper 90s south of that line. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin developing along and ahead of the dryline starting Thursday afternoon, which looks to advance along and eastward of a Haskell to Junction line, and have a little help from a weak shortwave aloft approaching from the southwest early Thursday evening. With models showing the available instability increasing and fairly supportive shear across these areas tomorrow, we are expecting any storms that do develop to strengthen rapidly in this environment and become severe. Primary hazards remain large hail and damaging winds, with a small chance for isolated tornadoes mainly across the Heartland and eastern portions of the Northwest Hill Country. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Cooler temperatures in store Friday into the weekend with an unsettled pattern. On Friday an upper low will be over southern Nevada. This low will move slowly east over the Four Corners area Saturday and Saturday night. With a subtropical jet extending from the eastern Pacific/Baja region across Texas into the Gulf Coast states, an embedded disturbance or two will will track over the area during the first half of the weekend. With a northeast breeze and increase in cloud cover, temperatures will be cooler area wide Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will increase across our area Saturday and Saturday night. Considerable cloud cover and the prospects for rain Saturday will limit highs to the 70s. The aforementioned upper low is progged to move east into western Kansas by early Sunday night with a trough extending to its south. Medium range models indicate that the low and trough will make slow eastward progress on Monday. The approach of the upper low and trough will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night, with a lingering chance on Monday. With winds across our area shifting to the southeast and south, temperatures Sunday will be warmer but still below normal in the Concho Valley and southern parts of our area. May have a Pacific front move east across much if not all of our area on Monday. Based on indications from the 12Z medium range models, rain chances should drop off Monday night and Tuesday, as the upper trough axis shifts east of our area. A warming trend is indicated Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tuesday, and upper 80s to mid 90s Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions with light winds expected for the rest of the night. MVFR ceilings look to develop from the south around sunrise, then burn off by 18Z. Some light showers are possible in the morning, but these were left out of the TAFs due to low confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 60 85 59 78 / 0 20 10 10 San Angelo 63 95 62 80 / 0 10 0 10 Junction 66 98 64 81 / 0 20 0 10 Brownwood 63 89 61 77 / 0 40 10 10 Sweetwater 62 84 59 78 / 0 10 0 10 Ozona 65 94 62 81 / 0 0 10 20 Brady 65 90 63 79 / 0 30 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...SK