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000
FXUS64 KSJT 201140
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
640 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Cold front is currently pushing south across the Big Country and
will shift winds out of the north at KABI in the next hour. A few
showers may impact KABI as the front moves through, but coverage
of showers along the front is isolated at best. The front will
continue to make its way across the area today with a wind shift
at KSJT around 13Z. Short range model guidance indicates the best
chances for additional storm development this afternoon and
evening will occur across the southern half of the area.
Confidence in coverage is low but will include VCTS at KJCT and
KSOA for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected at all terminals through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
developing across the northern Big Country ahead of a southward
advancing cold front. The primary hazards with these storms will be
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Convective allowing
models suggest this activity will sag slowly southward into the
northern and western portions of the Concho Valley through the mid
morning hours. Additional isolated to scattered storm development is
possible this afternoon as the front pushes through the area, with
the highest PoPs confined to the southern half of the area. A few
showers and storms may linger this evening and tonight along the I-
10 corridor before the front dissipates. Otherwise, temperatures are
expected to closer to seasonal normals today, with highs in the
lower to mid 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Upper level center of high pressure shifts east almost directly
over West Central Texas on Tuesday and remains through the rest of
the week. Hot and dry conditions will prevail, with highs around
the 100 degree mark in many locations. Upper high eventually
shifts east into the Lower Mississippi Valley for the weekend and
allow highs to come down a few degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  96  73 /  20   5   5   5
San Angelo  96  73  98  73 /  20   5  10   5
Junction  97  73  97  73 /  30  20  10   5
Brownwood  95  72  96  72 /  20   5  10  10
Sweetwater  92  73  95  74 /  30   5   5   5
Ozona       94  71  95  72 /  30  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99