021
FXUS64 KSJT 141859
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
159 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch has continues in effect for the Northern Edwards
  Plateau, Northwest Hill Country and Heartland through 9 PM
  this evening.

- A more settled pattern with a warming trend in temperatures is
  expected later this week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) was located over the Edwards
Plateau south-southeast of Sonora early this afternoon. This MCV was
moving to the northeast, and is expected to track across our
southeastern counties through the remainder of this afternoon into
early tonight. An area of rain associated with this feature will
continue to overspread our southern and southeastern counties this
afternoon, and should be primarily over our southeastern counties
north to McCulloch and San Saba Counties this evening into tonight.
Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening with a shear axis aloft and some
instability. Locally heavy downpours are possible Some additional
rain and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over our far
southern and southeastern counties overnight. A Flood Watch
continues in effect until 9 PM this evening. Will let the evening
shift assess this and decide if the Watch needs to be extended.

Relatively humid conditions will continue tonight and Tuesday with
not much temperature change. Lows tonight will be 69-73 degrees, and
Highs Tuesday will range from the mid to upper southern and central
counties, to the upper 80s and lower 90s in the Big Country. Our
area will remain under a shear axis aloft Tuesday, and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the
unstable airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The global models are indicating pretty much an end to the unsettled
pattern and more of an upper level ridge over our area through
this weekend. As a result, expect warmer temperatures and mainly dry
weather. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday,
warming into the mid to upper 90s Big Country and northwest Concho
Valley to lower to mid 90s elsewhere this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

An area of rain is shifting north across some of our southern and
southeastern counties at 1230 PM. This is affecting KJCT and to
some extent KSOA. Carrying TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions
(mainly with visibilities) through mid-afternoon at these TAF
sites. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible but low confidence in placement precludes a mention
at this time. But will monitor radar trends and update as needed.
Some low cloud development is expected late tonight and early
Tuesday morning over the southern and southeastern parts of our
area, with MVFR ceilings. Have accounted for this at our southern
terminals, and carrying a scattered mention at KSJT and KBBD which
could be near the northern edge of the low cloud field. Our area
has some variability in winds this afternoon, but expecting
generally southeast to south winds tonight into Tuesday. Expecting
wind speeds will be a little higher (9-11 knots) by late Tuesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  89  73  92 /  10  20  10  10
San Angelo  70  86  72  90 /  20  20  10  10
Junction    70  86  72  89 /  30  30  10  10
Brownwood   71  88  72  89 /  20  30  10  10
Sweetwater  70  89  72  93 /  10  20  10  10
Ozona       69  84  71  88 /  30  20  10  10
Brady       70  86  71  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Crockett-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19