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690
FXUS64 KSJT 181200
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
600 AM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An upper level low pressure system will bring a chance for some
light showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm to the area
this afternoon into tonight. Due to limited coverage, will only
mention VCSH at this time across the terminals. Cloud cover will
increase across the terminals today with MVFR ceilings developing
at KSOA this morning and across the remaining terminals this
evening and overnight. Ceilings may lower to IFR late tonight but
confidence is low at this point and will keep ceilings MVFR for
now. Expect light winds through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CST Tue Dec 18 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over western New
Mexico early this morning. This system will move east into West
Texas this afternoon and across the area overnight, bringing an
increase in lift and a chance for some showers to the forecast area.
Low clouds are expected to develop across southern sections this
morning, with an increase in mid and high clouds across the area as
the day progresses. Showers will be possible across western sections
by this afternoon, spreading east across the rest of the area this
evening and during the overnight hours as the upper low moves
across. Could even see a few thunderstorms tonight, primarily across
the eastern half of the forecast area as lapse rates steepen beneath
the upper low. Rainfall amounts will be light, with most areas
seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although isolated amounts near
1/4 inch will be possible.

Temperatures today will be close to normal, with afternoon highs in
the upper 50s and lower 60s. Rain chances will decrease from west to
east after midnight as the upper low continues east. Skies will
remain mostly cloudy for much of the area overnight, with some
clearing taking place across far western counties towards daybreak.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

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LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)

Aside from a few lingering showers on Wednesday morning,
precipitation chances are next to nothing through the weekend.
On Thursday, a cold front will pass through the area, bringing
slightly cooler temperatures and increased northwest winds. At
this time, winds should remain below advisory criteria. By Friday,
the airmass should recover to the mid to upper 60s with southwest
winds. Starting with Saturday, long-range models begin to diverge
with several different solutions. For now, we have trended
temperatures toward the warm end of guidance for the weekend. For
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, models are bringing in the next
chance for rain and mild temperatures. However, the timing details
are messy at this point, so we just stuck with chance PoPs and
slightly above normal temperatures.

SAK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  42  64  41 /  10  20   5   0
San Angelo  59  40  66  38 /  20  20   5   0
Junction  61  42  68  38 /  10  20  10   0
Brownwood  64  42  65  40 /   5  30  10   0
Sweetwater  60  42  63  40 /  20  20   0   0
Ozona       59  40  65  38 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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