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000
FXUS64 KSJT 231723
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1223 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the region late this morning into this afternoon. In fact,
scattered rain showers have already developed across the Big Bend
area and areas out towards Fort Stockton. The associated upper
level disturbance responsible for these showers will pull them off
to the east. Expect the coverage to generally increase for this
afternoon and tonight. Rainfall totals look to be in the 0.50" to
0.75" range through tonight across I-10 corridor. Higher totals
are possible across the Big Country with values up to 1.5" being
possible. The Storm Prediction Center has indeed outlooked our
area for a Slight Risk of severe weather as well. The main hazards
will be large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

The cloudy and relatively cooler pattern will continue on Tuesday.
Another cold front will drop down into west Texas late in the
afternoon, which should provide the potential for another round of
thunderstorms Tuesday evening and overnight, especially across
eastern counties. Southwest winds out of northern Mexico could cause
downsloping in the afternoon which would limit rain chances during
that time. Wednesday morning, models show the main trough axis
moving out of the Rockies and through the central Plains. Depending
on the location of the front at that time, one final round of rain
is possible early Wednesday morning before descending motion on the
backside of the trough shuts down precipitation chances by midday.
Assuming this lift and upper-level enhancement is realized, storm
total rainfall amounts could range anywhere from 0.50 to 2 inches.
However, this is leaning toward the high-end scenario and will be
highly dependent on convective elements and how everything lines up.
 For the latter half of the week, the hot and dry conditions look to
return as a broad 500mb ridge re-establishes itself across the
southern Plains. High temperatures will inch back upward into the
90s by the end of the week, likely reaching 100 on Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals this afternoon and
much of tonight. Expect MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals
Tuesday morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
develop late this afternoon and evening across the area, according
to Hi-Res models. Going a few hours of VCTS at the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     80  63  81  54 /  50  60  60  50
San Angelo  83  63  87  56 /  60  30  30  60
Junction    84  64  83  59 /  60  60  30  70
Brownwood   83  64  82  56 /  50  80  60  70
Sweetwater  81  63  81  54 /  70  50  50  50
Ozona       79  63  85  59 /  70  40  20  50
Brady       83  64  82  58 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21