Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 090358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
958 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through early Monday
evening. Southwest winds of 10 knots or less overnight will become
west at 5 to 10 knots by late morning Monday, then north at 10 to 15
knots behind a cold front that will move through the region Monday
afternoon and evening. Showers are forecast to develop after 03Z,
mainly affecting KABI and KSJT. Stratus development is possible
toward the very end of the TAF period, but have kept the current
TAFs VFR for now.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 911 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the next 24
hours. Southwest winds of less than 10 knots are forecast
overnight, although winds at KABI will remain in the 8 to 12 knot
range. Winds will become west at 5 to 10 knots by late morning
Monday, then north at 10 to 15 knots behind a cold front that will
move through the area Monday afternoon and early evening.
Extensive mid and upper level cloud cover will continue to stream
across the region through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

(Tonight and Monday)

Zonal flow aloft continues across West Central Texas this afternoon,
with water vapor satellite imagery showing upper level moisture
streaming in from the west, which is resulting in scattered to
broken high clouds moving over the region. At the surface, high
pressure to the east and strengthening low pressure over southeast
CO is resulting in a decently strong pressure gradient, causing
gusty southwesterly winds of 15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph.
Temperatures as of 1 pm are roughly 7-13 degrees higher than at this
time yesterday, due to the increase in warm southwesterly flow.

Zonal flow aloft will continue tonight then become southwesterly
Monday as a potent short-wave trough approaches from the west.
Increasing cloud cover and a continued increase in dewpoints will
result in a warmer night tonight, with lows in the low to mid 50s.
Monday, expect mostly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to upper
70s south of the Big Country. Meanwhile, cooler conditions expected
in the Big Country (highs mainly in the low to mid 60s) where a cold
front will be moving through that region by late afternoon.
Increasing lift with the approaching trough in the afternoon will
combine with increasingly deep moisture to bring chances for showers
by late afternoon along and west of an Ozona to Cross Plains line.



(Monday Night through This Weekend)

The aforementioned trough and cold front will push its way into
West Central Texas on Monday Night through Tuesday. Plenty of lift
is available with the right-rear quadrant of a jet streak
located right over the region. Models are in good agreement of
the axis of the heaviest rain being located roughly from the Big
Bend area to the Metroplex. Went with Likely to Definite precip
chances for this time period as a result. The fly in the ointment,
however, is just how far south the sub-freezing air advances. At
this point, model soundings are showing a weak (0-1 deg C) warm
nose at 850mb above the subfreezing layer for much of the Big
Country late Monday night. So, we have introduced chances for
snow and sleet between 3am and 9am Tuesday morning. Regardless,
this system should exit the area rapidly by late Tuesday morning,
so anything that develops will be at the tail-end of the event. It
is likely that the ground temperatures will be above freezing and
wet, so any accumulation will be light, and only around a tenth
of an inch in higher-elevation spots where surfaces may be below
freezing. For now, this is below criteria for a Winter Weather
Advisory, so we will defer to the evening and midnight shifts for
further statements.

For midweek, the forecast looks much quieter. High temperatures on
Tuesday will remain cool due to cloud cover and wet ground, but
should start to recover on Wednesday, with 60s continuing for the
rest of the week. Models are starting to show another front
moving into the Southern Plains on Sunday night into Monday, but
early indications are that this system will be dry.


Abilene  56  65  32  43 /   0  20  90  40
San Angelo  54  73  34  44 /   0  20 100  50
Junction  52  80  36  45 /   0   0  90  70
Brownwood  53  75  32  44 /   0   5 100  70
Sweetwater  54  61  33  42 /   0  30  90  30
Ozona       51  73  37  43 /   0  10 100  50




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