Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 181108
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
608 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

The surface high pressure that has dominated our weather pattern
for the past few days has moved well east of the area and the
supporting upper level ridge is starting to follow suite. As the
ridge moves off to the east, we`ll see a surge of upper level
moisture allowing for ample high clouds across the area Monday and
Monday evening. Temperatures will be on the rise with ample
southerly surface flow. Highs Monday will be in the mid to upper
70s and overnight lows will be much warmer than the past few days
in the mid to upper 50s - the aforementioned cloud cover and
southerly flow can be thanked. South winds will be on the increase
Monday, especially in the afternoon hours, due to a tightening
pressure gradient from a low forming in the central rockies.
Sustained winds will increase to between 10-15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Warmer temperatures will return Tuesday as southwest flow aloft
increases, increasing lee troughing along the eastern slopes of
the Rocky Mountains. This will increase southerly surface winds,
allowing for warmer temperatures and increasing moisture through
the end of the week. As an upper level low moves east through the
northern plains Wednesday, a cold front will drift south into our
area Wednesday night into Thursday. Models show this front
stalling somewhere in the northern half of our CWA.

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF have come into some
agreement that a quick moving shortwave will move across the
region Thursday into Thursday night, intensifying somewhat as it
approaches while combining with increased low level moisture and
the stalled, diffuse cold front, to give parts of the area a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Have kept the chances
confined to areas generally east of an Abilene to San Angelo to
Junction line for now, but these chances could be expanded farther
west if current model trends continue.

Otherwise, we`re looking at highs generally in the 80s, and lows
in the 50s through next weekend. Friday and Saturday appear to be
the warmest days at this time, with highs in the mid 80s to near
90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Southerly
winds are expected to increase after 15Z today with gusts up to 22
knots possible. These gusts are expected to decrease by 0Z
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  58  82  59 /   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  77  57  83  58 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  78  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  76  54  81  57 /   0   5   0   0
Sweetwater  76  58  84  59 /   5   5   0   0
Ozona       75  58  80  59 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...50


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