Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 141945
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
245 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows abundant mid to upper level
moisture streaming across West Central Texas in the southwesterly
flow aloft. This has resulted in mostly cloudy skies and pockets of
light rain moving northeastward across the CWA. Rainfall amounts,
however, have remained on the light side. Temperatures have held in
the 70s across the central CWA where cloud cover has been slow to
erode. For tonight, will keep a chance of showers and/or an isolated
thunderstorm going as weak disturbances in the southwest flow aloft
move across the region. Have the highest rain chances over the
western Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. Cloud cover and
rising dew points will keep overnight lows in the mid to upper
60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

A plume of mainly mid to upper level moisture will continue to
move up from the southwest on Tuesday while a cold front
approaches from the north and an upper level short-wave trough
approaches from the west. Precipitable water values Tuesday day-
time will range from 1.5 to 1.8 inches, which idicates pretty high
moisture content, and a subtle short-wave trough (a different one
than the one mentioned previously) in the west-southwest flow
aloft is forecast to move over the region during the day. This
feature could generate enough lift to bring areas of pre-frontal
light showers and isolated thunderstorms. At the very least,
mostly cloudy to overcast skies will exist for at least most of
the region south of I-20, likely not allowing temperatures to rise
as high as they could (upper 70s/low 80s), while elsewhere highs
look to rise into the mid to upper 80s.

The cold front will start to move into the northern Big Country
counties around late afternoon Tuesday, then make it into the I-20
corridor by early Tuesday evening, and down into the Concho
Valley/Heartland and I-10 corridor by late Tuesday evening.
Additional showers/storms will be possible along and ahead of the
front Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, slight rain chances will exist over the I-10
corridor as the short-wave trough to the west develops into a
closed low as it moves into West Texas. The low will bring
enhanced lift and tap into some moisture, perhaps resuling in
some showers and storms in the I-10 corridor Wednesday through
Thursday before the low moves east Thursday evening. The cool air
mass behind the Tuesday cold front will result in highs Wednesday
only in the low 70s, then a little warmer Thursday as warmer
southerly flow returns (highs in the upper 70s to around 80).

Mainly dry weather expected Friday through Saturday under zonal
flow aloft. Strengthening 850 mb ridge will bring continued
warming with highs reaching into the mid 80s to low 90s.

A large trough looks to move into the Central U.S. Sunday, while a
surface low moves across Oklahoma, dragging a front across our
region from west to east. This may result in some pre-frontal
precipitation, as well as much drier air coming in behind it.
Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s/low 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  84  50  71 /  30  40  20   0
San Angelo  67  82  53  73 /  30  40  30   5
Junction  69  87  58  71 /  20  40  60  20
Brownwood  67  84  52  70 /  30  50  30   0
Sweetwater  66  82  50  70 /  30  30  20   0
Ozona       64  82  54  71 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM...SJH


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