454
FXUS64 KSJT 261845
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
145 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances develop late this afternoon and evening and will
  continue through Friday. There is a low chance of severe weather
  for the northern Edwards Plateau Thursday afternoon and
  evening.

- Above normal temperatures expected again over the weekend with
  temperatures reaching back into the mid 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

The weather conditions through tomorrow will be driven largely by an
upper-level wave currently located over Baja California. As this
wave pushes eastward into northern Mexico, southerly surface flow
will feed an airmass with 50-60 degree dewpoints into west central
Texas.  This will increase instability northward to the Big Country
as CAPE values reach 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon and evening.
Subtle shortwaves embedded in the mid-level flow, in concert with
any heating that occurs, could initiate some scattered storms
this afternoon along and near the I-10 corridor. Any storms that
develop should drift northeastward although chances for severe
wind or hail are not high due to the lack of shear. Storm chances
will quickly diminish overnight as heating decreases. The main
upper-level wave will move into west Texas through tomorrow
afternoon and chances for rain showers should quickly increase by
the afternoon. Chances for damaging winds and/or hail appear to
be focused again along and near the I-10 corridor for tomorrow
where shear and helicity are most favorable and where storms are
most likely to develop. Any storms that occur further north over
the Concho Valley, Big Country and Heartland are not expected to
become severe due to unfavorable shear in this area. However,
these could still produce locally heavy rainfall as PWAT values
will be in the 1.2-1.4 inch range. For now, widespread flooding
concerns remain low, but this will be monitored in case locally
heavy amounts start to accumulate in any flood-prone areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

A weak upper-level trough and associated upper-level disturbance
will track across Western and West Central Texas Thursday,
increasing the chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the area through Friday afternoon. Models continue to keep
the bulk of the rain chances across the Northern Edwards Plateau
and Northwest Hill country and southward. There remains a chance
for some of these thunderstorms to become strong to severe on
Thursday across the Northern Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill
Country, with marginally higher instability lingering across the
area into Thursday evening. The main concerns with any strong to
severe storms that do develop will be the potential or large hail
and damaging outflow winds.

Expect the precipitation to move out of the area by the end of
the day Friday, with warmer temperatures over the weekend.
Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, with highs in the 70s under
mostly mostly cloudy skies and potential rainfall. By Friday
temperatures begin to trend upward into the weekend, where
temperature on Saturday and Sunday will range in the mid 80s to
mid 90s. A cold front is still expected to move through the area
Sunday evening, bringing cooler temperatures Monday, with highs
mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Generally VFR conditions to start off the afternoon and evening,
although there is a low chance for brief showers and
thunderstorms at San Angelo, Sonora and Junction. Overnight, rain
chances diminish but IFR to MVFR ceilings should set in,
especially by sunrise continue through the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  71  56  80 /  10  60  60  30
San Angelo  57  69  55  82 /  40  90  60  20
Junction    57  67  56  81 /  70  90  70  40
Brownwood   58  68  54  78 /  20  80  70  50
Sweetwater  60  71  56  82 /  20  60  50  20
Ozona       57  67  56  81 /  70  80  60  10
Brady       59  65  56  79 /  60  90  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK