Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 261110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...New AVIATION...

(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Early this morning, the cold front has pushed through most of the
area, except for portions of the northwest Hill Country. The front
will continue to slowly progress south through the morning hours.
Much colder temperatures are slowly filtering into the area along
with gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph. CAMs are indicating showers
and isolated thunderstorms developing across the Big Country and
western Concho Valley between 6 AM and 8 AM, with this activity
slowly spreading west through the morning hours. Although a little
bit of sleet may mix in with the rain across the northern Big
Country this morning, rain looks to be the predominant precipitation
type. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 30s across the
Big Country to the 50s to near 60 across the Interstate 10 corridor.
These high temperatures will likely occur first thing this morning,
with temperatures slowly falling through the day. Expect a lull in
the shower activity later this afternoon and into this evening,
although areas of drizzle will likely continue.

An upper level low currently across the Four Corners region will
dive south into southern Arizona by Tuesday morning. As this feature
approaches, large scale lift will result in numerous showers across
West Central Texas, mainly after midnight Tuesday. Temperatures
across much of the Big Country, portions of the Heartland, and much
of the Concho Valley will drop to or below freezing Tuesday morning.
This will result in a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain for much
of the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley, with a mix of rain,
sleet, and freezing rain across the rest of the Concho Valley and
Heartland. A winter Storm Warning has been issued for the Big
Country and northwest Concho Valley, with a Winter Weather Advisory
farther south across the rest of the Concho Valley, portions of the
Heartland, and Crockett County. Both the Warning and Advisory are in
effect until 7 AM Wednesday. In addition, a Freeze Warning has been
issued for much of the area, since this will be the first widespread
freeze of the season.


(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory continues
through 7 AM Wednesday.

Cold air will remain entrenched across the area through Wednesday,
in advance of the approaching upper level low to our west. This
system will provide plenty of lift to support widespread
precipitation across all of West Central Texas Tuesday into
Wednesday, with precipitation ending from west to east Wednesday
afternoon. On Tuesday, a mixture of rain, freezing rain and some
sleet will affect areas west of a Brownwood to Ozona line during
the early morning hours, with temperatures at or just below
freezing. By Tuesday afternoon, precipitation is expected to be
mainly rain, as surface temperatures warm into the mid and upper
30s. The exception will be across far western portions of the Big
Country, where some freezing rain is possible as temperatures
hover near the freezing mark.

Temperatures are expected to fall to freezing or just below
freezing again over the Big Country and western portions of the
Concho Valley by Tuesday evening, with a mix of rain and freezing
rain throughout the night. Elsewhere, just a cold rain is
expected, with temperatures in the mid and upper 30s. Most of the
area will see total rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches,
highest across the Big Country. Total ice accumulations are
expected to be between 1/10 and 1/4 inch, with locally higher
amounts near 1/2 inch possible over western portions of the Big
Country. Precipitation will end late Wednesday and temperatures
will warm into the 40s and 50s by afternoon, as skies begin to
clear across the area. Dry weather returns Thursday into next
weekend, along with a warming trend.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are occurring at all
sites and will continue through the next 24 hours. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
morning hours, with a decrease in activity later this afternoon
and evening. Additional showers will develop late this evening
into early Tuesday morning. A mix of freezing rain, rain, and
sleet is possible beginning around 06Z at KABI and around 09Z at
KSJT. Winds will be from the north to northeast at 10 to 20 knots,
with higher gusts.


Abilene  40  30  36  32 /  90  90  80  90
San Angelo  46  32  38  34 /  90  90  80  80
Junction  61  36  38  37 /  60  70  60  70
Brownwood  50  34  38  37 /  90  80  60  80
Sweetwater  36  29  33  31 /  80  90  80  90
Ozona       51  33  39  34 /  60  80  80  80


Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for

Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
Wednesday for Callahan-Coke-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
Wednesday for Brown-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Runnels-Tom



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