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000
FXUS65 KSLC 122144
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
244 PM MST Mon Nov 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Northerly flow will keep colder temperatures in place
through Tuesday. High pressure aloft will strengthen to the west
of Utah resulting in near normal temperatures by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Friday)...Northerly flow aloft remains in
place across the forecast area this afternoon, downstream from an
amplified mid level ridge extending along the Pacific Coast. This
flow has kept a cool airmass in place with temperatures struggling
to reach the 40F mark along the Wasatch Front this afternoon.

The upstream ridge is forecast to shift inland over the next
couple of days but weaken with time. The result will be a warming
trend most notable aloft, with most valleys likely seeing a more
tapered response as mixing will likely be somewhat limited by
light flow and a low sun angle. Nonetheless should see max temps
approach climo by Wednesday, with dry conditions continuing
through Thursday.


.LONG TERM (After 00Z Friday)...A decaying ridge will continue to
influence the forecast area Thursday night into Friday, however some
changes are expected over the weekend. Latest global guidance has
continued to indicate a narrow trough moving into the northern
portion of the CWA Saturday. The trough will lack significant jet
support, therefore its influence will quickly decay as we move into
Sunday. This system is currently expected to bring mountain show
with a slight chance for valley precipitation Saturday with isolated
mountain snow lingering around Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

Continuing into early-mid next week, the current global guidance
solutions maintain a dry pattern over the forecast area to start
next week.

Looking at the extended big picture, the h5 NAEFS/EPS ensemble means
are indicating the development of a troughing pattern off the CONUS`
west coast, shifting the eastern Pacific ridge further west. This
pattern would be indicative of more robust synoptic (colder & more
precipitation) systems encroaching over Utah. Confidence of this
occurring is low ATTM, however it is worth noting of a potential
pattern shift upcoming.

&&

.AVIATION...Northerly winds at SLC will continue through 03z before
shifting to the southeast. Clear skies expected through the TAF
period.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Seaman/Bonnette/Dewey

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php