708
FXUS01 KWBC 152024
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 16 2024 - 00Z Fri Oct 18 2024

...Unseasonably cool temperatures continue for much of the East
with frost and freeze concerns from the Central U.S. to parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

...Above normal temperatures build across the central and northern
High Plains with the risk of fire weather increasing through
Thursday...

...Significant pattern change begins Wednesday into Thursday
across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West with much
colder temperatures and the threat of widespread mountain snow...

A large area of Canadian high pressure, building southward into
the Central U.S. in the wake of yesterday`s passing cold front,
will continue to keep unseasonably cool temperatures in place
across much of the eastern half of the United States over the next
few days and nights. Starting tonight, low temperatures from the
nation`s midsection to the Eastern Seaboard will bottom out
roughly 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year. Low
temperatures stretching from parts of Kansas all the way to
Pennsylvania are forecast to dip near or even below freezing,
leading to fairly widespread frost and freeze concerns. Those with
sensitive vegetation or other agricultural interests in these
regions will want to heed the Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories
that are currently in effect. Despite increasing sunshine
Wednesday into Thursday underneath the bubble of high pressure,
high temperatures will still struggle to climb out of the 50s and
60s... equating to 10 to 20 degrees below average for the middle
of October.

As the large and sprawling area of high pressure moves into the
Eastern U.S. mid to late week, developing southwest flow on the
backside of the high will allow anomalously warm air to surge
northward across the central and northern High Plains. High
temperatures will soar well into the 70s and 80s on Wednesday with
some places in Wyoming, Montana, and South Dakota even having a
shot at 90 degrees. This unseasonable warmth then spreads eastward
on Thursday, with high temperatures climbing 20 to 30 degrees
above normal. The combination of near record warmth, low relative
humidity, gusty winds, and dry fuels will be conducive to critical
fire weather conditions across parts of the central and northern
Plains on Wednesday which may linger into Thursday.

The very warm conditions across much of the West as of late won`t
last too much longer as a significant pattern change is on the
way. A strong Pacific storm system will slam into the Pacific
Northwest beginning later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing much
colder and much more seasonable temperatures into the region
behind a powerful cold front. In addition to the colder
temperatures, the storm will also bring widespread precipitation
for much of the region. While valley locations will mostly just
see rain showers, dropping snow levels will result in the first
snow of the season for many of the higher mountain elevations.
Winter Storm Watches and Warnings have already been issued for
portions of the central and northern Rockies, which go into effect
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. If you`ll be traveling
through the mountains later this week, be sure to keep checking
the forecast and be prepared for potentially hazardous winter
driving conditions.

Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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