434
FXUS01 KWBC 160813
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 16 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 18 2026

...Major winter storm continues today across the upper Midwest to
the upper Great Lakes...

...Severe thunderstorms likely to sweep across the entire eastern
U.S. with the highest threat over the interior Mid-Atlantic late
today...

...An anomalously early heatwave begins to intensify and expand
east across the western U.S....

...Critical Risk of fire weather shifts farther south toward the
lower Texas coast today...

An intense cyclone with its center tracking across the Great Lakes
has already brought as much as 2 feet of new snow across
northeastern Wisconsin to portions of upper Michigan.  Although
the heaviest snowfall rates should have exited the area early this
morning, additional heavy snowfall of 12 to locally 20 inches can
be expected in upper Michigan today as the center of the cyclone
passes just to the southeast.  Very strong and gusty north to
northwesterly winds wrapping around the cyclone will likely
prolong the blizzard conditions in these area through today before
the cyclone center moves into Canada by tonight.  However, the
huge circulation of this system will take time to exit the Great
Lakes and the eastern U.S.  Snow and blowing snow will be slow to
diminish Monday night across the upper Great Lakes region, as
showers and thunderstorms change over to a period of snow across
the lower Great Lakes.  Some lake-effect snows will linger
downwind from the Great Lakes before tapering off Tuesday night
together with sub-zero wind chill values.  Meanwhile, a swath of
light snow ahead of a warm front will move east across the
northern Plains on Tuesday before reaching the Midwest and
possibly into the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning.

As the intense cyclone moves across the Great Lakes today, a
potent cold front will sweep from west to east through the eastern
U.S.  The combination of the vigorous dynamics ahead of the potent
front and maximum daytime heating will be ripe for eruption of
severe weather, especially across interior Mid-Atlantic late
Monday afternoon into early evening.  A wave of low pressure
tracking rapidly up the East Coast along the front will provide
additional instability to the already volatile situation. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe
weather for this region for today into the evening.  Please stay
weather alert on the severe weather potentials for the East Coast.
 Across the Sunshine State, thunderstorms ahead of the cold front
could bring areas of heavy downpours following yesterday`s heavy
thunderstorms.  Meanwhile, arctic air will bring a drastic end to
the recent warmth with the passage of the potent cold front
especially across the South.  Below freezing wind chill values
will penetrate down to the Gulf Coast and the Florida Panhandle by
Tuesday morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect for the Arklatex
region and portions of the Southeast.  Farther north, rain behind
the potent cold front will change over to a period of snow with 6+
inches of accumulations possible in the central Appalachians of
West Virginia.

An unusual weather pattern featuring a gradually intensifying
upper ridge will bring an anomalously early heatwave into the
western and southwestern portions of the country as the week
progresses.  Daily record-tying/breaking highs will become more
common across southern California, the Desert Southwest and into
the Great Basin over the next couple of days.  These temperatures
will serve as a baseline for even more anomalous, more widespread
record-breaking heat expected later this week.   Over the next
couple of days, moisture from the next Pacific system has reached
the Pacific Northwest and will keep a good chance of rain in the
vicinity through Wednesday morning.  The rain will be confined to
northwestern Washington state where some isolated flooding issues
are possible.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




$$