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FXUS66 KSTO 130849
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
149 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm weather will result in areas of moderate heat risk
continuing into the week ahead. A few isolated, late day showers or
thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra through Tuesday.
Otherwise, mostly dry and breezy conditions look to accompany this
warm stretch as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION(Through Wednesday)...
Warm dry temperatures will continue today only slightly lower
than yesterdays highs. Weak northerly flow over the parts of the
central valley for Tuesday will help to start a brief warming
trend for Tuesday and Wednesday with Wednesday expected to be the
warmest day this week. The hottest temperatures could be near 100
degrees for the central and northern Sacramento valley with a 50
t0 80 percent probability of reaching 100 degrees. Flow through
the Delta will help to keep temperatures cooler further south in
the low to mid 90s. Not a lot of change is expected on Thursday
with maybe slight cooling for areas with a Delta influence as the
Delta breeze is expected to increase starting late
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Moderate heat risk is expected Tuesday
through Thursday for most of the central valley with the
exception of areas with a Delta influence that will have a minor
heat risk.

The next couple of days there will be a slight chance of
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms near the crest for the
western slopes. The better chances look to be on the eastside of
the crest where the greater moisture and instability are located.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...

EPAC upper ridge flattens Friday into Saturday as short wave
troughs moves through the PacNW. At same time, cut off low west
of CA approaches Saturday and pushes inland Sunday or Monday,
models differ with progression rate and strength of features. Low
could spark an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over higher
elevations of Sierra Nevada Sunday and Monday. Cooling trend
expected through the extended forecast period, but high
temperatures remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs exc isolated
MVFR/IFR possible in -shra/-tsra over SierNev btwn 20z-04z. Sfc
wind mainly below 12 kts except vcnty of Delta, SWly sfc wind up
to 20 kts possible.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$