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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KTAE 190031
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
831 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.UPDATE...

Rain will gradually end from northwest to southeast across our Big
Bend zones as a weak cold front pushes through overnight. Made
slight adjustments to PoPs based on current radar trends. No
other changes were made.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [757 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

The stationary front will remain south of the area, while a
secondary cold front translates equatorward tonight. This will
herald a drier air mass across the entire area for Monday, with
dew points falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Meanwhile,
heavy showers and occasional evaluated thunderstorms continue
this afternoon southeast of a line from Panama City Beach to
Valdosta, with clearing skies as one moves northwest of here.
This precipitation will gradually shift southeastward tonight,
with showers confined to Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie Counties
on Monday. Elsewhere, a dry day is in store with mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels for mid-April.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]...

The current pattern continues through Tuesday morning; highest
precip chances will be confined to the Florida Big Bend.
Throughout Tuesday afternoon an upper level trough approaches SE
CONUS and finally begins to moves the stationary boundary that has
been impacting our region out into the Atlantic. As a result, we
can expect increased rain chances throughout the region Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning, with the Florida Big Bend having
the highest chances for precip. Expect overnight lows to be in
the mid 50s, with daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Post-frontal passage high pressure filters into the area from the
north bringing in relatively cooler and drier air. We can expect
calmer conditions through the weekend when another frontal system
makes its way into the region Saturday afternoon. Currently, models
are depicting our region being wedged between the left exit region
of a weak subtropical jet and the right entrance region of the
northern jet. This could give way to enhanced synoptic scale
forcing for ascent, when coupled with decent CAPE around 1000 J/kg
and modest 0-3km Helicity of around 150 - 200 m2/s2 the potential
for severe weather is present. We`ll track how this evolves over
the next several days. Expect overnight lows to drop into the mid
40s post frontal passage Thursday morning rebounding into the
lower 60s by Sunday. Expect daytime highs to generally be in the
70s.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]

A drier airmass will be filtering into the region behind a weak
cold front tonight. Brief periods of MVFR cigs will occur at TLH
and possibly VLD until the frontal passage. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail through the remainder of the TAF cycle.
Winds will be light.


.MARINE...

Through mid-week, the potential for showers and thunderstorms
impacting all the offshore waters during this period is likely.
These storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and
hail. Winds will generally remain around 10-15 knots with seas
generally less than 4 feet through the period.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Besides high dispersions across portions of southwest GA on
Monday, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.


.HYDROLOGY...

The stalled front will remain the focus for showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday. The front will slowly sag south as
time moves on with the heaviest of the precipitation likely in the
eastern Florida Big Bend with lesser amounts northward. In the Big
Bend area, 2-4 inches is possible with isolated higher amounts to 1-
2 inches into southern Georgia and lesser amounts into southeast
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. These rainfall amounts
will fall over the next few days so the longer duration lessens the
risk of widespread flooding. However, heavier and training of storms
could lead to localized urban and poor drainage flooding especially
where recent heavy rainfalls have occurred.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   58  77  56  77  56 /  20  10  10  20  10
Panama City   58  75  58  76  59 /  10   0  10  20  10
Dothan        53  74  53  76  54 /   0   0   0  10   0
Albany        55  76  53  78  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      58  77  55  77  57 /  20  10  10  20  10
Cross City    61  77  57  77  59 /  80  50  30  40  10
Apalachicola  59  75  59  74  59 /  40  10  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barry
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM...Oliver
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Scholl