Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS62 KTAE 190031 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 831 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 .UPDATE... Rain will gradually end from northwest to southeast across our Big Bend zones as a weak cold front pushes through overnight. Made slight adjustments to PoPs based on current radar trends. No other changes were made. && .PREV DISCUSSION [757 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Monday]... The stationary front will remain south of the area, while a secondary cold front translates equatorward tonight. This will herald a drier air mass across the entire area for Monday, with dew points falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Meanwhile, heavy showers and occasional evaluated thunderstorms continue this afternoon southeast of a line from Panama City Beach to Valdosta, with clearing skies as one moves northwest of here. This precipitation will gradually shift southeastward tonight, with showers confined to Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie Counties on Monday. Elsewhere, a dry day is in store with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels for mid-April. .SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]... The current pattern continues through Tuesday morning; highest precip chances will be confined to the Florida Big Bend. Throughout Tuesday afternoon an upper level trough approaches SE CONUS and finally begins to moves the stationary boundary that has been impacting our region out into the Atlantic. As a result, we can expect increased rain chances throughout the region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, with the Florida Big Bend having the highest chances for precip. Expect overnight lows to be in the mid 50s, with daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Post-frontal passage high pressure filters into the area from the north bringing in relatively cooler and drier air. We can expect calmer conditions through the weekend when another frontal system makes its way into the region Saturday afternoon. Currently, models are depicting our region being wedged between the left exit region of a weak subtropical jet and the right entrance region of the northern jet. This could give way to enhanced synoptic scale forcing for ascent, when coupled with decent CAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest 0-3km Helicity of around 150 - 200 m2/s2 the potential for severe weather is present. We`ll track how this evolves over the next several days. Expect overnight lows to drop into the mid 40s post frontal passage Thursday morning rebounding into the lower 60s by Sunday. Expect daytime highs to generally be in the 70s. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Tuesday] A drier airmass will be filtering into the region behind a weak cold front tonight. Brief periods of MVFR cigs will occur at TLH and possibly VLD until the frontal passage. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the TAF cycle. Winds will be light. .MARINE... Through mid-week, the potential for showers and thunderstorms impacting all the offshore waters during this period is likely. These storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and hail. Winds will generally remain around 10-15 knots with seas generally less than 4 feet through the period. .FIRE WEATHER... Besides high dispersions across portions of southwest GA on Monday, there are no fire weather concerns at this time. .HYDROLOGY... The stalled front will remain the focus for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. The front will slowly sag south as time moves on with the heaviest of the precipitation likely in the eastern Florida Big Bend with lesser amounts northward. In the Big Bend area, 2-4 inches is possible with isolated higher amounts to 1- 2 inches into southern Georgia and lesser amounts into southeast Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. These rainfall amounts will fall over the next few days so the longer duration lessens the risk of widespread flooding. However, heavier and training of storms could lead to localized urban and poor drainage flooding especially where recent heavy rainfalls have occurred. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 58 77 56 77 56 / 20 10 10 20 10 Panama City 58 75 58 76 59 / 10 0 10 20 10 Dothan 53 74 53 76 54 / 0 0 0 10 0 Albany 55 76 53 78 55 / 0 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 58 77 55 77 57 / 20 10 10 20 10 Cross City 61 77 57 77 59 / 80 50 30 40 10 Apalachicola 59 75 59 74 59 / 40 10 20 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Barry NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM...Oliver AVIATION...Barry MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...Scholl is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.