Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS62 KTAE 050017 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 717 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .UPDATE... No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. && .AVIATION... [Through 00z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION [357 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Friday]... High pressure will dominate our weather through Friday although an approaching upper level wave will lead to an increase in high cloudiness during the afternoon. Guidance temps look reasonable and no major deviations were needed. .SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]... A shortwave will dig south into southeast CONUS throughout the day on Friday and merge into a longwave trough positioned over the East Coast. According to current model guidance, this shortwave keeps most of its associated shower activity offshore throughout the day on Saturday. This is expected to be a light event with limited upper- level support, however, a reinforced shot of cooler air is expected to advect into our region after the system passes through the Florida Peninsula. Once this shortwave clears out of the area Saturday evening we`ll once again be clear, cool, and dry. Expect overnight lows to be around 50 degrees with daytime highs in the low 60s. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... Post-shortwave, we move into a ridging pattern and high pressure dominates. We`ll be clear, dry and warming up through the long term. A pressure perturbation along the 500mb height contours moves across southern CONUS on Monday but fizzles out under higher heights before reaching the southeast, at most this perturbation increases cloudiness Monday into Tuesday. Expect overnight lows to go from the low 40s into the low 50s through the long term, with daytime highs going from the mid 60s into the upper 70s. .MARINE... Northerly winds will continue to decrease this afternoon. Light to moderate northerly winds will become easterly Friday. Northeasterly winds will be moderate to strong this weekend. The next chance for rain will be Friday night into Saturday. .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall with the next system is not expected to cause any noticeable impacts with the ongoing river flooding across the region with rainfall amounts generally less than a half inch. This afternoon, releases from Woodruff are approaching 55kcfs. This is more than sufficient to keep Blountstown above minor flood stage for the next few days. Incoming flows to the Woodruff pool are unlikely to necessitate any significant increases in releases over the next few days. The Ochlockonee River basin continues to rise, with a crest nearing the gauge near Coolidge. Because the rainfall was at the top of the basin, it is taking time for the downstream sites to increase. With Coolidge nearly crested, we should see a crest at Thomasville very near the 15 ft flood stage on Friday afternoon. Downstream minor flooding to Concord is possible later in the weekend, but not at any of the other points downstream. The Withlacoochee River continues to rise steadily at Valdosta with minor flooding expected there and continuing into the weekend. Rises are also steady on the Little River, and when looking at the timing and flows on the way, a period of minor flooding is possible at the US-84 gauge early next week. Finally, ongoing flooding in the middle Suwannee will continue to slowly decrease with Branford and Rock Bluff forecast to fall below flood stage late Friday and Sunday afternoon, respectively. Further downstream flooding at Wilcox and Manatee Springs is unlikely, though the river at these two locations will remain very near minor flood stage for the next several days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 43 74 49 62 42 / 0 0 40 40 10 Panama City 50 71 52 65 45 / 0 0 50 40 0 Dothan 45 70 47 62 39 / 0 0 30 20 0 Albany 42 69 47 61 39 / 0 0 20 20 0 Valdosta 44 73 48 62 39 / 0 0 30 40 10 Cross City 46 77 50 63 42 / 0 0 40 60 30 Apalachicola 50 68 53 63 46 / 0 0 50 50 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...DVD NEAR TERM...Johnstone SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM...Oliver AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Johnstone FIRE WEATHER...Johnstone HYDROLOGY...Godsey

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