Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000 FXUS63 KTOP 062329 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 529 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM SUNDAY... An upper level ridge across the high Plains this afternoon will slowly shift east into the mid MS River Valley on Sunday. A low amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeast across the northern and central Plains, any ascent ahead of this H5 trough will remain well northeast of the CWA. A lee surface trough will remain across the central and southern high plains into western KS through Tuesday, as an amplified upper trough moves onshore across the western US late Tuesday. Sunday, south-southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 MPH with some gusts to 30 MPH during the afternoon hours as the PBL mixes up to near 850mb. There maybe slight advection of residual moisture but the deeper mixing will keep RHs in the 20 to 25 percent range during the afternoon hours. There will be a very high to critical rangeland fire danger Sunday afternoon across the CWA. The deeper mixing should allow highs to reach around 70 in most areas, to the mid 70s along the NE border. Sunday night through Tuesday night, slightly richer moisture will begin to advect northward, which may allow the RH to remain above 30 percent during the afternoon hours. As the H5 trough approaches the western US a down stream H5 trough will amplify across the eastern Plains and east central US. Southerly winds will will help toward highs to around 70 on Monday with mid to upper 70s on Tuesday. The mid- level southwesterly flow across the Rockies will increase and the lee surface trough will deepen across the central and southern high plains through the day on Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon looks windy with south winds of 15 to 25 MPH and gusts above 30 MPH. Wednesday through Wednesday night, the upper level low will slowly drift southeast across central CA, as an 80KT H5 jet max will lift northeast into the southern high Plains Thursday night. A northern stream H5 trough will dig southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes States. Low-level CAA across the northern plains will cause a surface cold front to push southeast across the Plains and into the northwest counties of the CWA late Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday afternoon a surface dryline will shift east across the CWA. If the CAP breaks there could be isolated thunderstorms developing across the eastern CWA. 850mb winds look a bit veered, so hodographs may have more straight line. Depending on the quality of moisture return, and if the CAP breaks, then isolated thunderstorms may develop, and a few may be strong to severe. Highs will be warm ahead of the front with mid to upper 70s expected. There could be some 80 degree readings across the central counties of the CWA. Wednesday night, the front will push southward across the remainder of the CWA, but with southerly 850mb winds there will be isentropic lift developing north of the boundary which will provide sufficient lift for scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms. Thursday, the surface front will push southward into northern OK, and the elevated showers may end during the afternoon. Northerly winds and low-level CAA will cause temperatures to be cooler with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The upper level low will only slowly drift south-southeast across southern CA. Thursday night through Saturday, the upper low will move east into the four corners region. 850mb moisture will advect northwest and the resulting isentropic lift will cause light rain to develop Thursday night into Friday and we may see a break on Saturday if the ECMWF verifies. The GFS is much more progressive lifting the upper low from the southwest US into the Plains on Saturday. If the GFS were to verify there would be a much higher chance for rain and perhaps some snow across portions of north central KS Friday night. Highs on Friday will only be in the 50s with upper 40s to lower 50s on Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 529 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 VFR conditions are expected through the period. A LLJ strengthens to 40 kts at 1500 feet tonight leading to LLWS until surface winds increase Sunday afternoon. Southwest winds sustained at 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts are expected through the day Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 302 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 I have issued a Red Flag Warning from 12 PM to 7 PM on Sunday after consulting with the Kansas Forest Service. Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH possible during the afternoon hours. Deeper mixing should offset weak residual moisture advection and minimum RHs will drop to 20 to 25 percent range. Given the dormant and extremely dry fuels, low RHs and south- southwest wind gusts up to 30 MPH, any fires may become uncontrollable wild fires. All outdoor burning will need to be postponed. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Sunday for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Flanagan FIRE WEATHER...Gargan

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