Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 220905

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
305 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Weak upper ridging will continue across the western CONUS and build
across the Great Plains today, bringing another day of dry weather.
Warm air advection will develop this morning, with temperatures
beginning to climb back above average. Highs today will be in the
80s to lower 90s. Upper ridging will break down on Wednesday, as
upper wave energy pushes in from the southwest ahead of a stranded
CA upper low. A thermal ridge will cross the region, bringing the
hottest temperatures of the week. Highs will be in the 90s to
lower 100s. A surface low will cross the CWA on Wednesday, along
with a series of upper level waves in the increasingly zonal flow.
Models continue to trend toward isolated thunderstorms developing
ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly
across NE WY and the Black Hills area where instability will be a
little stronger. These storms are not expected to be severe, but
given the inverted V forecast soundings, some may bring gusty
winds. The front will push through Wed night, then a strong wave
will cross the Dakotas on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected Thursday afternoon across NE WY into far western SD, then
will push eastward during the evening. Generally weak instability
and weak shear will limit severe development but could bring some
much needed moisture. How much QPF is still uncertain at this
point. Medium range models indicate a strong ridge building
across the Pac NW late in the week and active N/NW flow across the
region. However, there is still uncertainty with the likelihood
of precip through the end of the week and weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1122 PM MDT Mon Jun 21 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the period.


Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Warmer temperatures are expected today and Wednesday as dry
conditions continue. Relative humidity values each afternoon will
fall into the 10 to 15 percent range across northeastern WY and far
western SD. Coupled with locally breezy west to northwest winds over
northeastern WY, areas of elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions are expected. Although winds still look too weak for any
headlines at this time, we will continue to monitor the potential
for critical fire weather conditions across the northeastern WY
plains over this time period.




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