Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 200213
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
813 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Winds are still gusty across northeastern WY, but RH is rising, so
have allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire. Updated pops for
radar trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 103 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Water vapor shows upper trof working eastward from the Pac NW into
the Northern Rockies, with upper ridge extending through the
Northern Plains. At the surface, low is centered over far
southeast MT with dry line extending through Campbell county and
warm front draped near I-90 over western SD. Plenty of mid/high
level clouds and smoke keeping temps from rising quickly.

Temps should continue to rise this afternoon as warm front lifts
northeast over western SD, with red flag conditions developing
over northeast WY behind the advancing dry line. Ascent with
approaching trof will spark a few -shra/-tsra late this afternoon
and evening across northeast WY, and across western SD this
evening and overnight, although moisture is quite limited. Winds
will gradually shift to the northwest overnight behind a cold
front across all but far south central SD.

Dry and bit cooler Sunday on behind the cold front with some
breezy northwest winds on the SD plains.

Progressive pattern continues through the week with a cold front
passage about every 2-3 days, but moisture will remain limited.
The main concern will be elevated to potentially critically fire
danger, mainly with the approach and passage of each cold front.
At this time, next cold front looks to move through in the late
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, then again late Friday into
Saturday. Temps will continue mainly above average through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 501 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Other than some brief MVFR conditions in showers tonight, VFR
conditions are expected through Sunday. LLWS will be possible
across central SD this evening. A cold front will cross the
region tonight, resulting in some breezy WNW winds across
northwestern SD Sunday. This trough/front will help push
haze/smoke out of the area, at least for a little while.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Red flag conditions will continue to develop this afternoon across
northeast WY as a dryline moves through, and southwest winds
become gusty. A brief period of near red flag conditions possible
early this evening over far southwest SD with the dryline moving
through. A few -shra/-tsra possible tonight with a cold front
moving through, but chances for wetting rains are low. Elevated
fire wx conditions expected again Sunday with dry northwest winds
behind the cold front.

Progressive pattern continues through the week with a cold front
passage about every 2-3 days, but moisture will remain limited.
Elevated to potentially critically fire danger expected at times,
mainly with the approach and passage of each cold front. At this
time, next cold front looks to move through in the late
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, then again late Friday into
Saturday. Temps will continue mainly above average through the
week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...Pojorlie
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Pojorlie
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson


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