Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 191116
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
416 AM MST Wed Dec 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM MST Wed Dec 19 2018

Broad upper trough is crossing the central CONUS, with a low
across the southern Great Plains. Strong upper wave is crossing
the northern Rockies into the northern high plains. At the
surface, a trough is pushing across western SD with light rain
falling across central to southwest SD...and into northeast WY.
Light precip will push southward this morning and drier air
quickly moves into the region. The most significant issue today
will be the winds. Biggest concern is just how strong the winds
will get. Cold air advection will be weak during the afternoon
along with pressure rises, so think the potential for the 50kt
winds to reach the surface will be overall limited. Think the
current high-end advisory headlines look good, so no changes
expected. Think some +50kt wind gusts will reach the surface, but
overall it will be more of the exception than the rule. Strong
upper ridging will build back in for Thursday, with highs again in
the 40s to low 50s. The next trough will cross the region Friday
bringing a cold front and gusty NW winds behind the front. Models
continuing to show some light rain/snow mostly across northeast
Wyoming through northwest South Dakota. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures are
expected to move in for the weekend along with dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 414 AM MST Wed Dec 19 2018

Leftover -SHRASN will end this morning with local MVFR conditions
over the Black Hills possible. VFR conditions return all locations
by afternoon. Gusty northwest winds are expected with speeds
reaching 45kts at times on the northwest SD plains.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM MST
     /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for SDZ014-025-026-030>032-043-
     044-046-047-072>074.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Helgeson


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