Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 161127

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
527 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Current surface map places trof across the western Dakotas. High
clouds spreading across the area as weak shortwave tracks across
Colorado. Temperatures on the warm side...near 80 in downslope
flow over northern Black Hills. For today, shortwave over Colorado
lifts through Nebraska into eastern South Dakota...which will
bring scattered high clouds across the forecast area. Little
change in Bl-850mb temperatures from yesterday supports another
day with highs around 90 for much of the area.

Strong shortwave ejects out of Western CONUS trof on
Tuesday...reaching eastern Montana into western South Dakota
Tuesday afternoon. Deep low level mixing behind surface trof will
limit MLCAPE across northeast Wyoming and far western South
Dakota...with best instability into central South Dakota. Steep
mid level lapse rates and strong forcing will result in scattered
thunderstorms tuesday afternoon/evening. Strong wind potential
with thunderstorms given inverted-v soundings. Slightly cooler and
breezy Wednesday behind departing shortwave. Upper trof deepens
over western CONUS Thursday...then moves through the Rockies
and into the plains Friday. This will bring more
showers/thunderstorms to the area. Cooler temperatures expected
for the weekend with a lingering threat of showers


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued At 525 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning.


Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Relative humidities will drop into the teens over much of northeastern
Wyoming and portions of far western South Dakota this afternoon
Deep mixing across the area this afternoon will lead to some gusty
winds. Forecast soundings keep winds below 20kts through 15000ft
agl...which should keep wind gusts short of Red Flag criteria




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